Storm Warning 11, NWS Juneau, AK

644 
FZAK51 PAJK 210532 AAB
CWFAJK

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
832 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

SOUTHEAST ALASKA INSIDE WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO SKAGWAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ098-212345-
832 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA INNER CHANNELS COASTAL WATERS...
A GALE-FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N AND WEAKEN TUE NIGHT IN THE
NORTHERN GULF. ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE N THROUGH THE
EASTERN GULF WED. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
EASTERN GULF THROUGH WED MORNING...THEN MOVE ACROSS SE AK BY
LATE WED NIGHT. 

$$

PKZ011-212345-
GLACIER BAY-
832 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ012-212345-
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL-
832 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT LATE. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ013-212345-
SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL-
832 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ021-212345-
ICY STRAIT-
832 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 20 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ022-212345-
CROSS SOUND-
832 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 8 FT
SUBSIDING TO 6 FT LATE. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SW SWELL. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ031-212345-
STEPHENS PASSAGE-
832 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ032-212345-
NORTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
832 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ033-212345-
SOUTHERN CHATHAM STRAIT-
832 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 11 FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR
OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ034-212345-
FREDERICK SOUND-
832 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

PKZ035-212345-
SUMNER STRAIT-
832 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 10 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 



$$

PKZ036-212345-
CLARENCE STRAIT-
832 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

UPDATED

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.REST OF TONIGHT...SE WIND 65 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT LATE. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT NEAR OCEAN
ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING LATE. SEAS 6 FT...EXCEPT 9
FT NEAR OCEAN ENTRANCES. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 



$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
300 PM AKST TUE JAN 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS MOVING NNE INTO THE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL REMAIN MAINLY E OF 140W THRU WED. LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF WILL WEAKEN THRU TONIGHT...WHILE
ANOTHER LOW MOVES NNE THRU THE ERN GULF WED. FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE FAR ERN GULF WILL GENERALLY STAY THERE THRU WED MORNING...THEN
PUSH ONSHORE SE AK WED AFTERNOON. USED BLEND OF THE 12Z NAM AND
ECMWF AS THEY HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE MAIN FEATURES.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP AMOUNTS...WINDS...POTENTIAL
FOR LAND/MUDSLIDES/SMALL STREAM FLOODING...AND TEMPS. RIGHT
NOW...GIVEN A STRONG AND DEEP LAYER SSW FLOW AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BEING ADVECTED IN (0.8-1.1 INCHES) WITH
THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER...AM EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP FOR
THE MAIN PART OF THE PANHANDLE THRU WED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3+
INCHES ARE LIKELY IN MOST OF THOSE AREAS THRU WED AFTERNOON. STILL
SOME SNOW FALLING AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...AND EVEN REACHING SEA
LEVEL NEAR PAGY ATTM DUE TO SNOWMELT COOLING EFFECT. AS WARMER AIR
MOVES IN THRU TONIGHT...EXPECT ANY SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
(BELOW 1500 FT) TO BECOME RAIN BY EARLY EVENING. KEPT THE WINTER
WX ADVY FOR THE HAINES ZONE NEAR THE BORDER THRU 6 PM THIS
EVENING...AND WINTER STORM WARNING FOR WHITE PASS THRU 5 AM WED.
THINK THE PASS WILL SEE AROUND ANOTHER FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE IT
WARMS ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO MIX IN WED MORNING. THE PAYA AREA WILL
MISS A LOT OF THE PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM UNTIL WED
AFTERNOON...WHEN LOW MOVING IN SHOULD PULL A BAND OF PRECIP BACK
TO THE W TO THAT AREA. DID KEEP LOW POPS GOING THERE THRU WED
MORNING AS THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
DURING THAT TIME.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE HALF OF THE
AREA. EXPECT GALES TO CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THAT AREA INTO WED
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SMALL INCREASES THEN DECREASES DURING
THIS TIME DUE TO PASSING SHORTWAVES ALOFT...BUT IN GENERAL GALES
SHOULD BE THE RULE. GOING WITH STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR ZONES
26...27...AND 28 FOR TONIGHT AND WED...WITH ZONE 23 JOINING IN FOR
WED.

THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE LAND
AND MUDSLIDES ESPECIALLY ON SLOPES FACING FROM SELY TO SWLY. THE
HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED MAY CAUSE SOME URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING ISSUES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANY LARGE RIVER FLOODING AS WATER LEVELS IN THOSE BASINS ARE ON
THE LOW SIDE. GOING TO ISSUE AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVY
FOR MOST PARTS OF THE MAIN PANHANDLE AREA.

TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY OR RISE A BIT DURING THE NIGHT
TONIGHT. TEMPS ON WED WILL ONLY RISE A COUPLE MORE DEGREES IN MOST
PLACES FROM WHERE THEY ARE EARLY WED MORNING.

.LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
FOR CONTINUED WET WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAM FOR THEIR GOOD
CONSENSUS THROUGH FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN OVER THE
PANHANDLE...EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN HIGHWAYS WHERE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE NEAR WHITE PASS AND MIXED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE BORDER
OF HAINES HIGHWAY. OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH A
SERIES OF WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. EACH WAVE PASSING OVER THE
PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY GUSTY WINDS TO MAINTAIN
POTENTIAL HIGH RISK OF MUDSLIDES. USED THE SREF GUIDANCE FOR POPS
AND QPF FIELDS AND TONED DOWN RAINFALL RATE A BIT.

EXPECT MORE WAVES MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE MID
WEEK NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME LARGER AND USED THE
LATEST WPC ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. ONE NOTICEABLE
CHANGE OVER THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS HINTS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ALASKA INTERIOR
STRENGTHENING AND MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR A COLDER AIR ADVANCING TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE...GIVING A CHANCE FOR SEASONAL JANUARY TEMPERATURES.
HOWEVER...NEXT STORM FROM THE SOUTH WILL LIKELY TO PUSH THE COLD
AIR BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE PANHANDLE WILL RETURN TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MID WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ026.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR AKZ027-028.
         STRONG WIND FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR AKZ023.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FOR AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ031-034>036-041-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-032-033-043-051>053.

&&

RWT/AHN

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