Gale Warning 40, NWS Juneau, AK

419 
FZAK53 PAJK 041236
CWFYAK

MARINE FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
310 AM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR YAKUTAT BAY

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ053-050615-
YAKUTAT BAY-
310 AM AKST SUN JAN 4 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 60 KT
OUT OF DISENCHANTMENT BAY. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT
OF DISENCHANTMENT BAY. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF DISENCHANTMENT BAY. 
SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT OUT OF
DISENCHANTMENT BAY. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT OUT OF DISENCHANTMENT
BAY. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
510 AM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXTENDS FROM THE ALASKA
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND NORTHERN
ALBERTA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND
BRITISH COLUMBIA RANGES FROM THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S BELOW THE
COLDEST AIR HAS ALREADY MOVED TO ALBERTA OR IS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST
MOUNTAINS HAS STRONG GUSTY WINDS THROUGH INTERIOR PASSES AND
THROUGH THE INNER CHANNELS. MOUNTAIN WAVE FLOW PATTERS OVER SOME
THE COASTAL RANGE RIDGES SUCH AS THE TAKU WINDS ARE ALSO IN FULL
SWING TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING
FOR THE TAKU WINDS IN JUNEAU GOING ON. HAVE NOT MADE A FINAL
DECISION ON THE WIND WATCH FOR THE SKAGWAY AREA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR THE WARNING LEVEL
WINDS...JUST DO NOT HAVE THE HIGH CONFIDENCE IT THAT YET.

SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE. HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND A SECTION OF LOW CLOUDS ARE DRAPED ACROSS
THE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE PANHANDLE. DON'T EXPECT THE CLOUD
COVER TO CHANGE MUCH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

DO EXPECT THE DRY AND COOLER AIR TO CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND FILLING IN THE VALLEYS AND INNER CHANNELS.
WITH THE COLDER TEMPS AND STRONG WINDS MARINERS WILL HAVE SOME
ISSUE WITH FREEZING SPRAY IMPACTING VESSELS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING A DEVELOPING LOW MOVING NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF ALASKA BUT LOOKS TO BE AIMING TOWARDS
HAIDA GWAII FOR EARLY SUNDAY. THINK THE TRACK WILL BE FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO PUSH SOME PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD TO THE SOUTHERN THREE
ZONES...MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THEM. WITH THE TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE AM EXPECTING MOST OF IT TO START AS SNOW...WHILE THE FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS PONDER THE IDEA OF A MIX BACK TO RAIN AS IT
PUSHES SOME WARMER AIR INTO THE DIXON ENTRANCE REGION. THE SOUTH
PART OF PRINCE OF WALES ISLAND COULD SEE ABOUT 2 INCHES OF SNOW
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TO THE FORECAST AND MADE LITTLE IN WAY
OF FORECAST CHANGES TO THE PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...UPPER TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE WRN/CNTRL GULF THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO SHEAR EWD ACROSS FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE SUN AFTERNOON. ASCENT FORCED BY THIS FEATURE WILL AID
IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SRN AREAS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW
GIVEN THE SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS CURRENTLY MOVING S ACROSS
THE REGION. ATTM...ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 2 INCHES DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF
STRONGER ASCENT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND DRY OFFSHORE LOW-
LEVEL WINDS.

WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE ON SUN. HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR 1040 MB WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER NWRN
CANADA...WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER STRENGTHENED
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS HAIDA GWAII. THIS WILL SUPPORT STORM
FORCE WINDS OVER LYNN CANAL...WITH HIGH END SMALL CRAFT TO GALE
FORCE WINDS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE INSIDE CHANNELS. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
WITH THE HIGH PERSISTING OVER NWRN CANADA...AND SEMI-PERMANENT LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF...OUTFLOW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
RESTRENGTHEN ON TUE/WED/THU. IN ADDITION...COLD TEMPERATURES AND
STRONG WINDS WILL FAVOR FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE NRN INSIDE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

GUSTS FROM 50-60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR DOWNTOWN JUNEAU AND S
DOUGLAS ON SUN DUE TO CONTINUED 60 KT CROSS BARRIER FLOW /OBSERVED
IN HI-RES MODEL OUTPUT/. DEEP-LAYER WIND DIRECTIONS BECOME UNI-
DIRECTIONAL OUT OF THE ENE BY THEN...BUT SPEEDS DECREASE WITH
HEIGHT ABOVE 850 MB...WHICH COULD SUPPORT A SELF-INDUCED CRITICAL
LEVEL. THESE FACTORS IN ADDITION TO A RIDGE TOP INVERSION SUGGEST
MOUNTAIN WAVE POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST BEYOND SUN MORNING. THIS
COULD PROMPT AN EXTENSION OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING...WILL CONTINUE
TO EVALUATE.

TUE THROUGH FRI...A DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE S OF
THE ALEUTIANS...WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT TRANSITIONING TO A WARM
FRONT OVER THE SRN PANHANDLE. 850 MB TEMPERATURES FROM 2-6C WILL
BE PRESENT S OF THE FRONT...AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
NWD...RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND THAT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED
FOR SRN AREAS...AND MORE SUBTLE FOR THE CNTRL/NRN PANHANDLE.
BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY IS THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS
SPREADING FROM THE YUKON/NRN B.C. INTO THE CNTRL/NRN
PANHANDLE...WHICH WILL LOCK IN COLD TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE.
MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ABOVE THE COLD
AIR...WITH ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL PROBABLE FROM JUNEAU N TO
HAINES/SKAGWAY WED AND THU...AND RAIN FOR AREAS S OF JUNEAU.

BLENDED IN THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF WITH INHERITED PRESSURE GRIDS THROUGH
12Z MON. USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS WITH INHERITED POP GRIDS
THROUGH 12Z WED. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES. QPF
AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH PRECIPITATION
BECOMING MORE PROBABLE TOWARD MID TO LATE WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 5 AM AKST SUNDAY FOR AKZ025.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR AKZ017-022.
         STRONG WIND THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AKZ019-029.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ011-031.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ013.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         STORM WARNING FOR PKZ012.
         GALE WARNING FOR PKZ011-013-021-022-031-034>036-041>043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ032-033-051>053.

&&

BEZENEK/GARNER

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU