Gale Warning 397, NWS Juneau, AK

103 
FZAK52 PAJK 201956 AAA
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
1055 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-211400-
1055 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE ALASKA FRI WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF. WINDS WILL BECOME WEST WITH ANOTHER
BURST OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE GULF FRI NIGHT AND SAT. 

$$

PKZ041-211400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
1055 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO
16 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ042-211400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
1055 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT BY THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 45
KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO
18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 19 FT.
RAIN IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. S SWELL. 
.SUN...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 



$$

PKZ043-211400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
1055 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT

.REST OF TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO
19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W GALE TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN IN
THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SUN...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 



$$

PKZ051-211400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
1055 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT LATE. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW GALE TO 35 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
23 FT BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 



$$

PKZ052-211400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
1055 AM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SW SWELL. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 45 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 60 KT
LATE. SEAS 15 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW GALE TO 45 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 60
KT. SEAS 25 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN IN THE
MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...W GALE TO 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 



$$

541 
FZAK52 PAJK 210032
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-211400-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE E ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND
SE ALASKA FRI NIGHT AND SAT.  

$$

PKZ041-211400-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS
18 FT. W SWELL. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-211400-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS
16 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT
LATE. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-211400-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEAS 17 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
55 KT. SEAS 23 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
24 FT SUBSIDING TO 22 FT LATE. 
.SUN...W GALE TO 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-211400-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT LATE. 
SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN SHOWERS IN
THE MORNING.
.SAT NIGHT...W GALE TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE.
GUSTS TO 50 KT. OUT OF INTERIOR BAYS AND PASSES...GUSTS TO 45 KT
IN THE EVENING. SEAS 26 FT SUBSIDING TO 23 FT LATE. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-211400-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 PM AKST FRI NOV 20 2015 

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT LATE. GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEAS 16 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT LATE. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W GALE TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS
26 FT SUBSIDING TO 22 FT LATE. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 

$$

198 
FZAK52 PAJK 211258
CWFAEG

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 

SOUTHEAST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FROM DIXON ENTRANCE TO
CAPE SUCKLING OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WINDWAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ099-220100-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 
.SYNOPSIS FOR OUTSIDE WATERS...
A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WITH GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
AFFECT SE ALASKA SATURDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING COLD
AIR TO SE ALASKA FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 

$$

PKZ041-220100-
DIXON ENTRANCE TO CAPE DECISION-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT LATE IN THE MORNING. SEAS
18 FT. SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT LATE. SEAS 18 FT. W
SWELL. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW AND INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ042-220100-
CAPE DECISION TO CAPE EDGECUMBE-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO 50
KT. SEAS 21 FT. SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ043-220100-
CAPE EDGECUMBE TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE MORNING...THEN
INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 FT
BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE.  SEAS 24 FT
SUBSIDING TO 21 FT LATE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT...EXCEPT 40 KT OUT OF
CROSS SOUND. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ051-220100-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO ICY CAPE-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 60 KT. SEAS 20 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. GUSTS TO
50 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 26 FT SUBSIDING TO 22
FT LATE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
LATE.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO
17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. W SWELL.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 

$$

PKZ052-220100-
ICY CAPE TO CAPE SUCKLING-
400 AM AKST SAT NOV 21 2015 

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 45 KT IN THE MORNING. GUSTS TO
65 KT. SEAS 22 FT BUILDING TO 27 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS 26 FT
SUBSIDING TO 21 FT LATE. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SW SWELL. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 

$$

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
433 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES
ONSHORE NEAR CROSS SOUND THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN GULF TO CENTRAL SE AK. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE N AND BE
N OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRI. A STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE E
ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT...THEN INTO SE AK FRI. MODELS WERE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE MAIN FEATURES.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE PRECIP POTENTIAL...PTYPE/AMOUNTS...
WINDS...AND TEMPS. PRECIP WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL
AREA BUT WILL BECOME FAIRLY LIGHT BY LATE EVENING. AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NWD TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR NRN AREA BY
LATE EVENING. THEN...PRECIP WILL INCREASE FROM THE W LATE TONIGHT
AND FRI AS STRONG OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES IN. THE PRECIP WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE AREA FRI. THE FAR SRN AREA
WILL HAVE LOWEST PRECIP THREAT OVERALL.

AS FOR PTYPE...SNOW OVER THE N-CENTRAL AREA WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
THIS EVENING. TOTAL SNOWFALL IN THE N-CENTRAL PANHANDLE ADVY AREA
WILL BE 3 TO 5 INCHES BEFORE THIS CHANGEOVER OCCURS. PRECIP WILL
START AS SNOW OVER THE NRN AREA BY LATE EVENING...BUT CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN NEAR SEA LEVEL BY LATE TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ON
SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE KLONDIKE AND
HAINES HIGHWAYS WILL SNOW LONGER...WITH THE CANADIAN BORDER AREA
ON HAINES HIGHWAY NOT CHANGING TO RAIN UNTIL MID-MORNING FRI.
WHITE PASS WILL REMAIN AS SNOW THROUGH DAYTIME FRI WITH SNOW LEVEL
RISING TO AROUND 1800 FEET BY THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW NEAR SEA
LEVEL WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 2 INCHES...BUT AROUND 4 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER BY 18Z FRI...AND AROUND 14 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY NEAR
WHITE PASS BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO LIMIT THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVY FOR THE HAINES ZONE TO NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.
CHANGED THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ZONE 18 TO A BLIZZARD WARNING
FOR THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF THE KLONDIKE HIGHWAY FOR LATE TONIGHT
AND FRI AS STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE THE SNOW TO BLOW AROUND EASILY
AND REDUCE VISIBILITY TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.

AS FOR WINDS...THEY WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND
FRI. AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD...THE NRN AREA WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE BEHIND THE FRONT
INCREASING THE SLY PRESSURE GRADIENTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
GALE FORCE FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND NRN PANHANDLE FRI AS STRONG
OCCLUDED FRONT MOVES IN...WITH SCA LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SRN AREA.
OVER THE GULF...GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OFFSHORE
WATERS AND MUCH OF THE NW HALF OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. THEY WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY FRI AS THE FRONT PASSES BY
THE AREA. WILL HEADLINE THE PAJN AREA FOR STRONG WINDS FOR FRI
WITH FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT ORIENTATION THERE. OTHER AREAS
OVER THE FAR NRN PANHANDLE WILL ALSO INCREASE TO STRONG WIND
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT AND FRI...BUT WITH OTHER HEADLINES IN THOSE
ZONES WILL LEAVE THAT OUT. OTHER AREAS OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
AND OUTER COAST COULD ALSO GET CLOSE TO STRONG WIND LEVELS FRI.

TEMPS WILL BE RISING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE
SRN AREA WILL HAVE MORE STEADY TEMPS. USED EARLY EVENING LOW TEMP
WORDING IN MANY OF THE ZONES. ON FRI...MOST AREAS NEAR SEA LEVEL
WILL HAVE TEMPS IN THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...VIGOROUS BAROCLINIC SYSTEM LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF THE
OUTER ALEUTIANS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL FOLLOW A 150 KT JET AT
300 MB INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH SUCH A DEEP
LONG FETCH OF WARM AIR SUPPLYING HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND FORCED
LIFTING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST, WE SHOULD SEE A MAJOR
RAIN OVER SNOW EVENT WITH AS MUCH AS 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS IN LYNN CANAL AREA.
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...SHALLOWER SNOW COVER WILL DISAPPEAR FAR
MORE QUICKLY, AND IMPACTS WILL BE MUCH LESS. BUT GIVEN A
SNOWPACK RANGING FROM 6 INCHES TO AS MUCH AS A FOOT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE, CONDITIONS WILL BE INCREDIBLY SLOPPY AND
SLICK. RESIDENTS CAN DO THEIR PART MITIGATING IMPACTS BY KEEPING
STORM DRAINS CLEAR OF SNOW AND ICE AND OTHER DEBRIS. THIS WILL
KEEP INEVITABLE PONDING FROM POTENTIALLY BECOMING SIGNIFICANT. BUT
OTHER THAN THIS NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE TO
3500 FEET FOR A SHORT-TIME ON SATURDAY MORNING, BUT AS THE FRONT
PASSES...SNOW LEVELS AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN DROPPING RAPIDLY
MID-DAY SATURDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO MUCH SO...THAT
SNOW WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE NORTH...AND INTO MORE SOUTHERN
COMMUNITIES LATE. IN ADDITION...GIVEN THE WINDY CONDITIONS THAT
WILL BEGIN AFFLICTING THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE PEDESTRIANS SHOULD
TAKE EXTRA CAUTION WHEN CROSSING STREETS, APPROACHING BUSSES, AND
WALKING SIDEWALKS. FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY BE MINDFUL OF KIDS
CROSS STREETS TO CATCH BUSSES THROUGH VERY SLICK CONDITIONS.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ANGLE INTO THE REGION SUCH THAT WE SHOULD SEE
GREAT PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN YUKON AND GIVEN ALREADY
STRONG GRADIENTS ACROSS THE GULF AND PANHANDLE...MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING GRADIENTS IN EXCESS OF -20 MB FROM JUNEAU TO
KETCHIKAN...AND GRADIENTS CLOSE TO -8 OR -9 MB BETWEEN SKAGWAY TO
JUNEAU. THIS SUGGESTS LOTS OF WINDS. BUT GIVEN THE GREATER
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE NORTHERN REGION, THAT IS WHERE WE ARE
FORECASTING THE STRONGEST WINDS. ASIDE FROM STORM FORCE WESTERLIES
ACROSS THE GULF ON SATURDAY...WE WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO STORM
FORCE THROUGH LYNN CANAL AS WELL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL REACH SOLID GALES THROUGH GLACIER BAY, SOUTHERN LYNN
CANAL, STEPHENS PASSAGE, AND ICY STRAIT. MINIMUM GALES WILL BE
FOUND TO THE SOUTH. WINDS AT SKAGWAY ARE SO CONCERNING THAT A HIGH
WIND WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOLLOWING THE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
WHITE PASS IN THE SHORT-TERM. THE THREAT FOR 60 MPH WINDS BEGINS
AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND EXTENDS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ONE THING TO NOTE ABOUT THE WINDS...GRADIENTS WILL BE STRONG
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT GIVEN WARM AIR ADVECTION...TRIED TO HOLD BACK
WHAT THEY WOULD NORMALLY DELIVER SINCE STABILITY WILL KEEP WINDS
ALOFT. SATURDAY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSLATE TO THE SURFACE MORE
EASILY.

AS THE SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST...COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND. THIS COLD AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
PANHANDLE INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
OUTFLOW EVEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WIDESPREAD FOG
BEFORE THANKSGIVING IF GRADIENTS SLACKEN. BUT LATE MODEL RUNS
ARE TRYING DEGRADE THE RIDGE IN PLACE AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING
SOME RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS BY THE HOLIDAY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
MID-RANGE ISSUES TOOK PRECEDENCE. THIS WILL BE STUDIED BETTER BY
SHIFTS THIS WEEKEND.

A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS COVERED SOME OF THE ISSUES WITH
THE RAIN OVER SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BUT THIS FALLS INTO
MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     AKZ025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ021-
     022.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM AKST
     FRIDAY FOR AKZ019.
         HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR AKZ018.
         BLIZZARD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM AKST FRIDAY FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-013-031-034-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011-021-022-032-033-035-036-041>043-
     053.

&&

RWT/JWA

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU