Gale Warning 396, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
601 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...A QUICK MOVING LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE LOW AND A TROUGH THAT WAS EXTENDING WEST OF THE
LOW TRANSFORMS INTO A WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE THURSDAY EVENING. THE SNOW SOUTH OF THE ICY
STRAIT CORRIDOR WILL END THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...CHANGING
OVER TO RAIN.

THE MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG LYNN CANAL THURSDAY NIGHT
OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIR IN PLACE ALONG THE HAINES HIGHWAY
LEADING TO AN OVERRUNNING SNOW EVENT. FROM HAINES TO THE BORDER
EXPECT 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW BEFORE THE WARM AIR REMOVES THE COLD
AND PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO RAIN. ALOFT ALONG WHITE PASS THE
CHANGE OVER WILL TAKE SOME MORE TIME AS THE DEPTH OF WARM AIR IS
NOT NOT THAT DEEP. SO HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
HAINES AREA AND A WATCH FOR HEAVY SNOW NEAR WHITE PASS FROM
THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY EVENING.

WINDS IN THE LYNN CANAL WILL INCREASE TO A SOUTHERLY SMALL CRAFT
THIS EVENING. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ARE INCREASING TO
SOUTHERLY GALE AS A WEATHER FRONT MOVES EAST BRINGING WITH IT
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HEAVY RAIN AS THE INCOMING FRONT HAS A
SOURCE REGION IN THE MID PACIFIC TROPICS. THESE RAINS WILL REACH
THE CAPE SUCKLING AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WARM FRONT WITH A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE PANHANDLE FRIDAY. EXPECT THAT BY FRIDAY MORNING
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAYS WILL
HAVE CHANGED TO RAIN WITH INCREASING S-SWLY WINDS. RAIN WILL
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE CENTER
WILL MOVE INTO THE YUKON SATURDAY AND CAUSE A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. EXPECT WARM GUSTY WINDS WITH STRONGEST
BEING GALES THROUGH LYNN CANAL AND CROSS SOUND. THE MAIN PART OF
THE FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLING TREND
STARTING OVER THE NORTH. THIS WILL CAUSE A TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW
SHOWERS.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF
THE NORTH AS THE TROUGH PASSES AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY
AS THINGS CLEAR OUT GOING INTO MONDAY. NORTHERLY OUTFLOW WINDS OF
AROUND 30KT THROUGH LYNN CANAL AND OUT OF TAKU INLET ARE IN THE
FORECAST. THESE WILL START TO EASE TUESDAY. DRYING TREND LOOKS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OR BETTER.

USED AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE WARMING TREND FOLLOWED BY THE COOLING TREND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR TO IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL PANHANDLE DUE TO THE SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA
LOWERING CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS SHOULD WORSEN OVER THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL AREA
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM AKST THIS
     EVENING FOR AKZ025.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ021-
     022.
         WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM AKST
     FRIDAY FOR AKZ019.
         WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ018.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ022-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ012-013-021-031>034-042-043.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ041-053.

&&

BEZENEK/FERRIN

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
331 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

AKZ017>022-025-201500-
CAPE FAIRWEATHER TO CAPE SUCKLING COASTAL AREA-
TAIYA INLET AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAY-HAINES BOROUGH AND LYNN CANAL-
GLACIER BAY-EASTERN CHICHAGOF ISLAND-
SALISBURY SOUND TO CAPE FAIRWEATHER COASTAL AREA-
JUNEAU BOROUGH AND NORTHERN ADMIRALTY ISLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YAKUTAT...SKAGWAY...HAINES...GUSTAVUS...
HOONAH...ELFIN COVE...PELICAN...JUNEAU
331 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...HEAVY RAIN TO FALL OVER DEEP SNOWPACK...

HEAVY RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM YAKUTAT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY...INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF
GUSTAVUS, HAINES, SKAGWAY, PELICAN, HOONAH, AND JUNEAU. AS A
RESULT OF SUCCESSIVE SNOW STORMS...SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 6 INCHES
TO OVER ONE FOOT. RAIN AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL RANGE BETWEEN
1 AND 1.5 INCHES OVER HAINES AND SKAGWAY TO 2 TO 3 INCHES IN
GUSTAVUS, HOONAH, AND YAKUTAT TO 3 TO 5 INCHES IN PELICAN AND
JUNEAU. IN ORDER TO FACILITATE WATER REMOVAL FROM STREETS, ROADS,
AND SIDEWALKS, REMOVE SNOW AND ICE OBSTRUCTIONS FROM STORM DRAINS.
IN ADDITION...WINDY CONDITIONS OVER WET AND SLICK SURFACES WILL
MAKE WALKING HAZARDOUS.