Gale Warning 375, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
313 PM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

.SHORT TERM...A FRONT LIES OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE AS OF THIS AFTERNOON AND IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTH. A VERY LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLIES IS CAUSING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
THE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. A
DEVELOPING WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SPIN UP A WEAK LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND ENHANCE RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH
OF FREDERICK SOUND AND EAST OF CHATHAM STRAIT OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL
TOTALS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2.5 INCHES. FARTHER NORTH, SHORT TERM RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING
FROM AND ADDITIONAL ONE QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. ON
THE HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS, COLDER TEMPERATURES THERE SHOULD
YIELD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW.

A LOW OVER SOUTHWESTERN YUKON CAUSED SOME STRONG SOUTHERLIES OVER
THE FAR NORTHERN INNER CHANNELS, BUT PEAK CONDITIONS HAVE PAST.
STRONG WINDS IN SKAGWAY AND JUNEAU AS WELL AS GUSTY CONDITIONS IN
HAINES WILL RELAX LATER THIS EVENING. GALES IN LYNN CANAL WILL
ALSO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE TO THE SOUTH, CONDITIONS ARE
STILL RAMPING UP AND STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR ZONE 27 AND 28
THIS EVENING WITH DEVELOPING GALES OVER CLARENCE STRAIT ENDING BY
TOMORROW MORNING.

ADJUSTED QPF GRIDS WITH INPUT FROM RFC. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...COOLER WEATHER IN THE WORKS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED AS
A COLD AIR MASS FROM THE BERING SEA WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE GULF
AND PANHANDLE TUE INTO WED. THE AIR MASS IS NOT VERY COLD AS IT
WILL BE HEAVILY MODIFIED BY THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF BEFORE IT
REACHES THE PANHANDLE. HOWEVER IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR 850
MB TEMPS TO DROP TO AROUND -4 TO -7C TUE NIGHT AND BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME SNOW MIXING IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. THE COOL WEATHER
DOES NOT LAST AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT STARTS TO
WARM THINGS UP AGAIN LATE WED.

MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG RANGE CONTINUES TO BE THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED FOR WED NIGHT INTO THU. BORN FROM A
965 MB LOW THAT TRACKS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE BERING SEA COLD AIR MASS, THE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THERE THROUGH FRI AS ITS GALE
FORCE FRONT SLAMS INTO THE PANHANDLE WED NIGHT. STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MID RANGE MODELS ON TIMING OF THE FRONT. GFS
AND THE CANADIAN CONTINUE TO REPRESENT THE FASTEST SOLUTION AND
ARE RATHER CONSISTENT WITH THEIR PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND WITH EACH
OTHER. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ARE AROUND 3 HOURS
SLOWER, BUT THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE ECMWF HAS INCREASED THE SPEED
OF THE FRONT, AND IS STARTING TO APPROACH THE GFS AND CANADIAN
SUGGESTIONS. SO CURRENT FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND
CANADIAN WITH GALE FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE GULF WED
EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS INCREASING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WED NIGHT.
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS AT 850 MB ARE APPROACHING 55 TO 60 KT. NOT
QUITE ENOUGH FOR HIGH WIND WARNINGS BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
40 AND 60 MPH ARE LIKELY WED NIGHT ALONG THE OUTER COAST, SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE, AND VARIOUS AREAS OF THE INNER CHANNELS. POST-FRONTAL
WINDS TURN W AND SW THU AND INCREASING TO GALE FORCE AGAIN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE GULF. THE LONG SW FETCH WILL INCREASE WAVE HEIGHTS
ACROSS THE GULF AS A RESULT. ALSO, THE OUTER COAST WILL LIKELY
SEE STRONG GUSTS, FROM THE SW THIS TIME, FOR MUCH OF THU AND FRI.

AS FOR PRECIP, THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL HAVE
WARMED UP MANY AREAS ENOUGH THAT MAINLY RAIN WILL BE THE RESULT.
ANY HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
RATHER QUICKLY AND SHOWERS QUICKLY TAKE OVER FROM STRATIFORM
PRECIP BY THU. AS FOR SNOW THE ONLY PLACES OF CONCERN ARE THE
HAINES AND KLONDIKE HIGHWAYS WHERE LINGERING COLD AIR AND LOW SNOW
LEVELS WILL LIKELY ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL TO OCCUR AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO LOWER FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS COLD AIR FROM THE BERING TRIES TO NOSE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE
LINGERING LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF WILL KEEP THAT AT BAY TILL AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND. BY THAN, MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE VARIOUS
SHORT WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE COLD AIR AND/OR COMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH WILL AFFECT HOW STRONGLY THE COLD AIR MASS WILL BE
AS IT COMES IN THIS WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS FAVORING A SLIGHTLY
WARMER SCENARIO AT THE MOMENT AS IT HAS MORE SW FLOW ACROSS THE
GULF RATHER THEN W FLOW LIKE THE COOLER GFS. IN ANY CASE, THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCE TO LIKELY SHOWERS IN THE AREA WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW MIXING IN AGAIN FOR THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MARGINAL VMC TO IMC CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVIER RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE PANHANDLE. LOWEST CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH. VMC OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF. WIND SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAIN AN
ISSUE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY JET
STRENGTH UP TO 60 KTS OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT, BUT THEN DETERIORATE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AS A 50 KT LOW LEVEL WESTERLY JET MOVES IN OVER THE CENTRAL OUTER
COAST.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKST TONIGHT FOR AKZ027.
         STRONG WIND UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS EVENING FOR AKZ018-025.
         STRONG WIND FROM 9 PM AKST THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
     AKZ028.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ012-036-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ013-021-022-031>035-042.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO SEAS FOR PKZ043-051-052.

&&

FRITSCH/EAL

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

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