Gale Warning 262, NWS Juneau, AK

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
350 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT RANGE IS THE GALE FORCE
LOW THAT IS STRENGTHENING IN THE CENTRAL GULF AS WE SPEAK. THE LOW
BEING POSITIONED UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90 KT JET STREAK
AT 500 MB COMBINED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED NATURE OF THE LOW
WILL ALLOW IT TO DEEPEN TO 988 MB BY LATE THIS EVENING. AFTER THAT
POINT THE LOW CENTER BEGINS TO STALL IN THE GULF AND DECOUPLE
FROM THE JET STREAK. THIS WILL CAUSE IT TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH
SUNDAY.

AS OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE PANHANDLE HAS YET TO FEEL THE LOW'S
EFFECTS ASIDE FROM AN INCREASE IN HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY.
THE GULF IS A DIFFERENT STORY. BUOY 46085 IS ALREADY SEEING WINDS
OF 25 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT, AND CAPE SUCKLING AND CAPE
FAIRWEATHER BUOYS HAVE SEEN THEIR WINDS INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON. GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE UP AND
WILL BE UP THROUGH AT LEAST SAT AFTERNOON. BIORKA ISLAND RADAR IS
ALSO STARTING TO SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONTAL RAIN BANDS.
THEY ARE STILL WELL OFFSHORE BUT GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER.

WINDS, CLOUDS, AND RAIN WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE OUTER COAST WILL BE THE FIRST TO FEEL THE
RAIN AND WIND WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND WIND ARRIVING
LATE THIS EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO HOIST STRONG WIND HEADLINES FOR
ZONES 22 AND 23 FOR TONIGHT AS THE INITIAL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
850 MB WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT ALONG THE FRONT SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF GUSTS TO 40 MPH AT SEA LEVEL. FARTHER INLAND, WINDS
AND RAIN WILL START UP A FEW HOURS LATER WITH WINDS NOT QUITE AS
STRONG AS THE OUTER COAST ENCOUNTERED. STILL ENOUGH STRENGTH WILL
REMAIN FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS AND
SUB-STRONG WIND GUSTS FOR MOST LAND AREAS LATER TONIGHT (THOUGH
THE OCCASIONAL GUST TO 40 MPH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION).

FOLLOWING THE FRONT, WHICH MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLE RATHER
QUICKLY, THE PANHANDLE WILL EXPERIENCE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN
AND WIND AS THE SYSTEM'S DRY SLOT MOVES THROUGH SAT MORNING. THAT
IS NOT THE END OF IT HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM'S SECOND WRAP TAKES
AIM AT THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST FOR SAT AFTERNOON. STRONG WIND
HEADLINES ARE AGAIN BEING HOISTED FOR SAT AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 22
AND 23 WITH SUB-STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLE.

AS FOR RAIN, THE SYSTEM IS RATHER JUICY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5 INCHES IN THE SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FEEDING
IT. THIS IS AROUND 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE INITIAL FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH RATHER QUICKLY FRI NIGHT
SO WILL NOT BE STICKING AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO DROP A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF RAIN. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS PART WILL ONLY BE
AROUND .5 TO .75 INCHES. FOLLOWING THE BREAK DUE TO THE DRY SLOT,
THE SECOND WRAP IS THE WORRY FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN
WILL START ALONG THE CENTRAL OUTER COAST MIDDAY SAT AND IS
EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAIN BY SAT EVENING WITH
RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE LONG RANGE PERIOD.

IN ADDITION, THE COLD CORE NATURE OF THE LOW WILL DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. LIGHTNING HAS ALREADY BEEN
DETECTED NEAR THE CORE OF THE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF TODAY. WITH
THAT IN MIND, A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AND SAT AND THE OUTSIDE WATERS
MARINE FORECAST FOR SAT.

SHORT RANGE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT A FEW DIFFERENCES
REMAINED. OVERALL THERE WERE ONLY A FEW MB DIFFERENT ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW, AND SOME SLIGHT SPREAD ON WIND SPEEDS.
OVERALL USED GFS AND SOME EC FOR OVERALL GUIDANCE TODAY.

.LONG TERM...STORM SYSTEM WILL BE JUST PAST ITS PEAK IN STRENGTH
AT 03Z SUN AND STILL OFFSHORE CENTERED OVER AND JUST WEST OF
MARINE ZONES 42/43 ACCORDING TO MODEL UPDATES. AT THAT TIME WILL
LIKELY BE CONTINUING WIDESPREAD GALES OFFSHORE AND SCAS IN THE
FAVORED INNER CHANNELS FOR N-S ORIENTED/PACKED ISOBARS. INCLUDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN SEVERAL OFFSHORE ZONES FOR THE SAT
NIGHT-SUN PERIOD AS POSITIVE BUOYANCY IS PORTRAYED BY THE MODELS.
RAINFALL WILL BE WIDESPREAD INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO SUBSIDE LATE SUNDAY...HOWEVER THIS SECOND WRAP OF THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAIN TO CONTINUE ON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT BUT
WITH DECREASING RATES THEN. QPF VALUES REMAIN MARGINALLY HEAVY
FOR 6 HOUR PERIODS FOR A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PANHANDLE ON SAT NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST WILL LIKELY NOT PRODUCE
FLOODING IN AREA RIVERS BUT RAPID RISES ARE POSSIBLE. CURRENT QPF
TOTALS FOR THE STORM ARE AT 3-3.5 FOR THE SITKA AREA AND 2-2.5 FOR
JUNEAU. SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAIN IS EXPECTED OUT IN THE YAKUTAT
AREA AND IN THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES.

ADJUSTED SOME WINDS FOR THE 03Z SUN-03 MON PERIOD...LOCAL
ENHANCEMENTS... BUT OTHERWISE DYNAMIC ADJUSTMENT WAS NOT
NECESSARY. THERMODYNAMIC UPDATES UTILIZED A BLEND OF EC/GFS/NAM
DATA WITH THE INITIAL RFC QPF FORECASTS. FOR SUN PM/MON...A DRYING
PERIOD...USED A GFS/EC BLEND FOR UPDATED PRESSURE FIELDS (WEAKER
GRADIENTS) AS THE NAM PATTERN APPEARED TO BE OUTLYING. CONTINUED
AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH USING RFC/EC/GFS GRIDS FOR THERMODYNAMIC
UPDATES. FOR DAY 4 (TUES)...USED EC/GFS GRIDS AS MODEL AGREEMENT
WAS STILL STRONG WITH THE REMNANT WEAK TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST SLOWLY AND UPPER RIDGING TAKING OVER THE GULF. THIS
AGREEMENT CONTINUED ON THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE GEM MODEL BEING
THE OUTLIER WED-THU. EVOLVED TO WPC GRIDS BY WED...WHICH UTILIZED
100% EC ENSEMBLE GRIDS. BY DAY 7 EC/GFS SOLUTIONS BEGAN TO
DIVERGE SOMEWHAT WITH THE EC SHOWING MORE AMPLITUDE IN A PATTERN
INCLUDING A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE GULF. THIS STORMINESS
CONTINUED RIGHT ON THROUGH DAY 8 WITH THE EC CONTINUING TO SHOW
MORE AMPLITUDE...BUT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH POSITION SHOWING GENERAL
AGREEMENT. STORM TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL GULF CONTINUES WITH FALL-
LIKE CONDITIONS STEADILY TAKING OVER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
WITH THE EC/GFS MODEL AGREEMENT BEYOND 6 DAYS, CONFIDENCE WAS
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE EXTENDED PACKAGE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...THE EXPECTED RAIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL CAUSE
LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS TO RISE. HOWEVER WITH THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL SPREAD OUT OVER ABOUT 2 DAYS RAPID RISES ARE NOT
EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WATERWAYS LIKE MENDENHALL LAKE,
TAIYA RIVER, AND MONTANA CREEK, ONLY REACHING ABOVE BANKFULL BY
SUN MORNING. SO NO FLOODING FROM RIVERS IS EXPECTED CURRENTLY. THE
OTHER CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF MORE MUDSLIDES FROM THE RAIN AND
WIND FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...STRONG WIND FROM 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
     FOR AKZ022-023.
         STRONG WIND FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
     AKZ022-023.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ036-042-043-051-052.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ011>013-021-022-031>035-041-053.

&&

EAL/WESLEY

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JUNEAU

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