Storm Warning 8, NWS Fairbanks, AK

332 
FZAK52 PAFG 311318
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
418 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-010030-
418 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
972 MB LOW SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST
AND WEAKEN. 

$$

PKZ200-010030-
NORTON SOUND-
418 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 25 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 25 KT.  

$$

PKZ210-010030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
418 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT.  

$$

PKZ215-010030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
418 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. FOG.
.FRI...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...SE WINDS 15 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-010030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
418 AM AKST THU DEC 31 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. FOG.
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. 
.SUN...W WINDS 20 KT. 
.MON...E WINDS 20 KT.  

$$

CCC/DJH DEC 15

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
617 AM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A PROGRESSIVE AND VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RECENT
MODEL RUNS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS HAVE SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY IN
FORECAST WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE FOR THE HIGH WIND
EVENT EXPECTED TODAY. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN ALASKA.

UPPER LEVELS...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NOW EXTENDS FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO EAGLE
AND SOUTHEASTWARD. A STRONG SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ALASKA INTERIOR TODAY AND PUSH THE RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CANADA. VERY STRONG SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL
BE RAPIDLY SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
THIS MORNING AS THE IMPULSE MOVES NORTH...INCREASING AN ALREADY
TIGHT GRADIENT. THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TO
A LINE ST LAWRENCE ISLAND-KIVALINA-UMIAT BY THIS EVENING...THEN
WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TO THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
AND THE CHUKCHI SEA LATE TONIGHT.

A MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST TONIGHT AFTER THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
PASSES BY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER BURST OF STRONG
SOUTH WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THIS NEXT EVENT WILL BE LESSER IN
MAGNITUDE THAN TODAYS HIGH WIND EVENT.

FOLLOWING THIS SECOND IMPULSE...ANOTHER RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE ALASKA INTERIOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED A
THIRD PERIOD OF STRONG SOUTH WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.

SURFACE...
A VERY STRONG 952 MB LOW CENTERED OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL WEAKEN
TO A 965 MB CENTER OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY THIS EVENING...THEN
WEAKEN RAPIDLY INTO A TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ANADYR SOUTHWARD BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR TODAYS HIGH WIND EVENT...
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE IN THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...NAM12 MODEL
INDICATING 800 MB WINDS OF 100-120 KT AND BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS AS
STRONG AS 90-100 KT. NAM12 CROSS SECTION INDICATES STRONG DOWNWARD
MOTION IN EXCESS OF 45 KT IN THE LEE OF THE ALASKA RANGE IN THIS
UNUSUALLY STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT. WE ARE EXPECTING GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 100 MPH IN AREAS MOST PRONE TO STRONG WINDS.

IN DENALI...700 MB WINDS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 80-90
KT THIS MORNING. 800 MB WINDS MAX OUT AT 70-90 KT. NAM12 CROSS
SECTION INDICATES STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION EXCEEDING 45 KT IN THE
LEE OF THE ALASKA RANGE CREST. IN AREAS ALONG THE RAILBELT...SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THROUGH EARLY
MORNING...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

IN AREAS NEAR THE ALASKA HIGHWAY IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...
LOWER LEVEL WINDS ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TO MAX OUT AT AS HIGH
AS 100 KT AT AROUND 750 MB...WITH DOWNWARD MOTION EXCEEDING 45 KT
IN THE LEE OF THE ALASKA RANGE CREST. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE RAPIDLY THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
100 MPH EXPECTED AT THE WINDIEST SITES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

IN AREAS NEAR DELTA JUNCTION...WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
INCREASE RAPIDLY THROUGH EARLY MORNING...WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 80
MPH EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL WINDS ALOFT MAX
OUT AT ABOUT 80 KT...BUT FORECAST DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS LESS
AND IN MUCH SHALLOWER LAYER THAN IN AREAS FURTHER TO SOUTH...SO
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST WIND SPEEDS IS LESS THAN FOR AREAS FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH.

TWO MORE STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE
ALASKA RANGE BEFORE THE WEEKEND...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED
ERE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LESS THAN THOSE EXPECTED IN TODAYS
EVENT.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS...
A 952 MB STORM CENTERED OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND THIS EVENING...WEAKENING TO 966 MB. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
RAPIDLY LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES WEST OF ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND.

THE STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF THE WEST COAST TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS CONTINUE IN EFFECT
THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST...EASTERN NORTON SOUND AND
NULATO HILLS...AND THE YUKON DELTA...WHERE WINDS GUSTING TO
60 MPH ARE EXPECTED.

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND AND THE BERING STRAIT COAST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH SNOW CONTINUING TONIGHT. STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS
OF 5 TO 9 INCHES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

WINDS GUSTING TO 45 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
COAST...BALDWIN PENINSULA AND SELAWIK VALLEYS...AND THE NORTHERN
AND INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT.

OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST...2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE IN THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR...PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN...SNOW OR MIXED...WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN SOME AREAS. OVER THE
SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY RAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE CHANGING TO OR BECOMING MIXED WITH SNOW LATER
TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURE COOL SOME.

ARCTIC SLOPE...
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC
COAST FROM POINT LAY SOUTH. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT IN MOST AREAS...EXCEPT OVER
THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WHERE ABOUT 2 INCHES OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK...WITH AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
LIKELY CONTINUING. ONE OR MORE ADDITIONAL CHINOOK
WIND EVENTS MAY OCCUR IN THE ALASKA RANGE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ223-AKZ225-AKZ226-
AKZ227.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ230.
&&

RF DEC 15