Brisk Wind Advisory 244, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
408 PM AKST WED DEC 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ALOFT...A HIGH ENERGY PATTERN COVERING MUCH OF NORTHERN AK TODAY
AS A DEEP LOW NEAR THE YUKON DELTA BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND CURVES
NORTHEAST TO ABOUT 200 MILES WEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND 10 AM
THU. A STRONG RIDGE FROM BARROW SOUTHEAST INTO THE YUKON
TERRITORY WILL HOLD THROUGH EARLY THU...THUS A STRONG SOUTH FLOW
COVERS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN AK. AS THE LOW WEAKENS THROUGH
THU...WIND FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO WEAKEN UNTIL A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTH OVER NORTHERN AK AGAIN IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER THU
THROUGH FRI. IN THIS FLOW ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE ALASKA
PENINSULA FRI NIGHT TO NEAR BETHEL BY 3PM SAT WHILE WEAKENING
ENROUTE.

SURFACE...960 MB LOW NEAR CAPE ROMANZOF MOVING TO 60 MILES SOUTH
OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND AT 9PM WED WEAKENING TO 968 MB THEN TO
150 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND 3PM THU WEAKENING TO
975 MB. OCCLUSION FROM GAMBELL TO DEERING TO FORT YUKON AND
EASTWARD MOVING TO THE BERING STRAIT TO NOATAK TO ANAKTUVUK PASS
AND EASTWARD AT 9PM THU...DRIFTING NORTH AND DISSIPATING
THEREAFTER. 963 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN BRISTOL BAY 9PM FRI MOVING
TO 60 MILES NE OF BETHEL 3PM SAT. ASSOCIATED OCCLUSION FROM LOW TO
MCGRATH TO FAIRBANKS TO EAGLE 9PM FRI MOVING TO UNALAKLEET TO
ANAKTUVUK PASS TO BARTER ISLAND 9AM SAT THEN WEAKENING WITH A 986
MB LOW FORMING NEAR BARTER ISLAND AT 3PM SAT.

MODELS...ECMWF...GFS...AND NAM ARE FAIRLY CLOSE ON MOVEMENT AND
DEPTH OF FIRST LOW TREKKING NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN BERING
SEA...AS WELL AS THE BEHAVIOR OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
WESTERN AK WEAKENING OVERNIGHT WHILE TIGHTENING UP OVER THE
EASTERN AK RANGE THU. FOR THE SECOND LOW THE NAM MOVES IT FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS SO WILL FAVOR THE LATTER.

NORTH SLOPE...WINDY TODAY OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST BUT WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE OCCLUSION WEAKENS. EXPECT SOME
LIGHT SNOW MOVING NORTH OVER ALL ZONES BUT NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION
AS THE SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE KEEPS MOVING NORTH. THE SECOND
OCCLUSION MAY BRING SOME SNOW ON SAT BUT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT BE
AS SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS POINT...HOWEVER NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK
UP LONG THE COAST AREAS AS THE OCCLUSION APPROACHES SAT.

WESTERN AK...WINDS INCREASING THROUGH EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTH BERING SEA...THEN EXPECT WINDS TO
BEGIN TO DECREASE IN THE LATE EVENING OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND
NORTON SOUND AND IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THU OVER KOTZEBUE
SOUND AND THE SOUTH CHUKCHI SEA. AT THIS POINT ENOUGH WARM AIR IN
ADVANCE OF THE OCCLUSION HAS BROUGHT VISIBILITIES UP NEAR THE
BERING STRAIT...REMOVING THE BLIZZARD THREAT THERE BUT TEMPS ON
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND REMAIN LOW ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST THE EARLY
EVENING FOR POTENTIAL BLIZZARD. RAIN AND SNOW SPREADING NORTH
THIS EVENING WITH THE OCCLUSION...OR REMAINING AS SPOTTY SNOW OVER
THE UPPER KOBUK AND UPPER NOATAK VALLEYS. BEHIND THE OCCLUSION
EXPECT PRECIP TO BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MIXING BACK WITH
SNOW OR TURNING TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
FOR SOUTHERN INTERIOR ZONES LOOK ON TRACK FOR EXPIRING LATE TODAY
AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOSTLY OVER BUT FOR THIS AFTERNOON WINDS
ARE STILL GUSTY OVER THE AREA. ON THU AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH...EXPECT LIGHT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE ARCTIC
CIRCLE...THOUGH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE NEXT OCCLUSION
WILL BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND MIDDLE
YUKON VALLEY...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO THE ZONES NORTH OF THE SEWARD
PENINSULA FRI. THE NEXT OCCLUSION MOVING IN WILL SPREAD A CHANCE
OF SNOW TO THE INTERIOR ZONES...THE YUKON DELTA...NORTON SOUND AND
NULATO HILLS ON SAT.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WINDS THROUGH AK RANGE PASSES
HAVE DIMINISHED SOME SO HAVE ADVISORIES POSTED INTO MID EVENING.
INTERIOR SUMMITS ARE PICKING UP STRONG WINDS SO HAVE ISSUED HIGH
WIND WARNINGS FOR AREAS TO INCLUDE THE STEESE...ELLIOTT..AND
DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS. THEESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING. SOME SNOW DEVELOPING IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF NORTHERN ZONES
INCLUDING THE SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS RANGE THIS EVENING BUT WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. EXPECT WINDS IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE ALONG THE
RICHARDSON TO INCREASE TO LATER THU AHEAD OF THE INCOMING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. THE SECOND OCCLUSION MOVING OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT
AND SAT WILL BRING A DOSE OF SNOW FOR THE AREAS FROM TANANA TO
FORT YUKON NORTHWARD AS THE FEATURE TREKS NORTH. AS THE OCCLUSION
CROSSES THE ALASKA RANGE FRI NIGHT...WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
INCREASE THROUGH PASSES.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ223-AKZ226.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ215-AKZ216.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214-AKZ219-AKZ220-AKZ221-
AKZ227.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ200.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ230.
&&

DEC 15