Storm Warning 4, NWS Fairbanks, AK

647 
FZAK52 PAFG 011411 CCA
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
511 AM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-020015-
511 AM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 970 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO NEAR
GAMBELL AS A 981 MB LOW BY 3AM MON...TO NEAR SHISHMAREF AS A 986
MB LOW BY 3PM MON...TO NEAR CAPE LISBURNE AS A 989 MB LOW BY 3AM
TUE...AND NEAR WAINWRIGHT AS A 992 MB LOW BY 3PM TUE.

$$

PKZ200-020015-
NORTON SOUND-
511 AM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT.
FOG...RAIN.
.MON...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG.
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-020015-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
511 AM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.MON...SW WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG.
.TUE...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-020015-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
511 AM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG.
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-020015-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
511 AM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. SNOW. RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. SNOW. RAIN.
.MON...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

NOV 15

215 
FZAK52 PAFG 012342
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
242 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-021445-
242 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 975 MB LOW 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL WILL BE NEAR GAMBELL AS A
983 MB LOW AT 3AM AKST MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE 988 MB NEAR
SHISHMAREF AT 3PM MONDAY. THE LOW WILL BE 997 MB NEAR BARROW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA MONDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN TO 983 MB 370 NM SOUTHWEST OF
GAMBELL TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ200-021445-
NORTON SOUND-
242 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.MON...S WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-021445-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
242 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SW WINDS INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO
15 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.MON...SW WINDS 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG... RAIN.
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-021445-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
242 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-021445-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
242 PM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG...RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG...RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...W WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

CC/JK/DA NOV 15

415 
FZAK52 PAFG 021332
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
432 AM AKST MON NOV 2 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-030030-
432 AM AKST MON NOV 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 983 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL WILL MOVE TO SHISHMAREF
AS A 987 MB LOW BY 3PM MON...TO WAINWRIGHT AS A 995 MB LOW BY 3PM
TUE...AND TO 120 NM NORTH OF PRUDHOE BAY AS A 1002 MB LOW BY 3PM
WED.


$$

PKZ200-030030-
NORTON SOUND-
432 AM AKST MON NOV 2 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-030030-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
432 AM AKST MON NOV 2 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...S WINDS 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-030030-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
432 AM AKST MON NOV 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG...RAIN.
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-030030-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
432 AM AKST MON NOV 2 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

NOV 15

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
501 AM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE NW PACIFIC
AND BERING SEA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MAINLAND
ALASKA WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST WITH THE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS HAS NOW SET UP SW FLOW OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND BRING A SERIES OF
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS NE ACROSS ALASKA.

THIS WILL CAUSE NORTHERN ALASKA TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND
REMAIN WETTER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK. WILL SEE A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -4C ALONG THE WEST COAST TO -16
ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER. TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH
SLOPE WILL RISE 4C TODAY AND ANOTHER 4C TONIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES
C MON. THE WEST COAST WILL WARM 1-2C TODAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH MON. SNOW HAS CHANGED TO RAIN FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA
SOUTH AND WILL CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST NORTH TO CAPE
LISBURNE TODAY.

SURFACE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER TO THE BEAUFORT
SEA WILL MOVE EAST OF BANKS ISLAND MON.

A WARM FRONT FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO MCGRATH WILL MOVE TO WAINWRIGHT TO
CENTRAL BY 3PM SUN...TO BARROW TO OLD CROW BY 3AM MON...AND THEN
MOVE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST MON. EXPECT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL THIS FEATURE TODAY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND FROM
KOTZEBUE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST TODAY.

A 970 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO NEAR GAMBELL
AS A 981 MB LOW BY 3AM MON...TO NEAR SHISHMAREF AS A 986 MB LOW
BY 3PM MON...TO NEAR CAPE LISBURNE AS A 989 MB LOW BY 3AM
TUE...AND NEAR WAINWRIGHT AS A 992 MB LOW BY 3PM TUE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS 40KT IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THIS LOW THROUGH MON THEN
STARTING TO DECREASE MON NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS AND THIS WILL
CAUSE SEA LEVELS TO RISE TO 3-5 FT ABOVE NORMAL LATE TONIGHT AND
MON OVER ZONE 214...5-7 FT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE NORTON SOUND
COAST FROM EARLY MON THROUGH MON NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THIS
TO CAUSE HIGH SURF AND MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. WILL UPGRADE
TO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR ZONES 211 212 AND 214. OVER ZONE 213
EXPECT HIGH SURF DUE TO THE SHORT FETCH LENGTH AND LACK OF ELEVATED
SEA LEVELS. HIGH SURF CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ZONE 207 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DECREASE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT MON IS EXPECT HIGH SURF MOST
OF ZONE 207.

A COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM THIS LOW TO CAPE NAVARIN TO ST
PAUL ISLAND WITH A WARM FRONT FROM CAPE NAVARIN TO THE BERING
STRAIT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT TO ANVIK BY
3PM SUN WITH THE WARM FRONT FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO POINT HOPE
TO BUCKLAND. EXPECT HEAVY SNOW NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT CHANGING TO
RAIN AND FOG SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. BY 3AM MON THE FRONT WILL
OCCLUDE WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING FROM GAMBELL TO NOME
THEN SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL TO POINT HOPE TO DENALI. EXPECT ANOTHER
2-4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THIS FRONT...CHANGING TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN
ZONE 209 WHERE THERE WILL STILL BE COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS DRAINING
OUT FROM THE INTERIOR. BY 3PM MON THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM POINT
HOPE TO NOME TO GAMBELL TO WAINWRIGHT TO EAGLE. WILL SEE ANOTHER
2-4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MON WITH STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND FOG.
BY 3AM TUE THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM POINT LAY TO THE BERING STRAIT
THEN NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TO BARROW TO OLD CROW. SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH RAIN ALONG
THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA THROUGH TUE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...SEA LEVELS ALONG THE WEST
COAST FALLING TUE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ216-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200.
&&

NOV 15