Gale Warning 110, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
501 AM AKST SUN NOV 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ALOFT...
THE LONG WAVE PATTERN CONSISTING OF A TROUGH OVER THE NW PACIFIC
AND BERING SEA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND MAINLAND
ALASKA WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST WITH THE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA BY NEXT WEEKEND. THIS HAS NOW SET UP SW FLOW OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND BRING A SERIES OF
STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS NE ACROSS ALASKA.

THIS WILL CAUSE NORTHERN ALASKA TO WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND
REMAIN WETTER AND WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MID-WEEK. WILL SEE A
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN NEXT WEEKEND.

850 MB TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM -4C ALONG THE WEST COAST TO -16
ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER. TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH
SLOPE WILL RISE 4C TODAY AND ANOTHER 4C TONIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES
C MON. THE WEST COAST WILL WARM 1-2C TODAY THEN LITTLE CHANGE
THROUGH MON. SNOW HAS CHANGED TO RAIN FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA
SOUTH AND WILL CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST NORTH TO CAPE
LISBURNE TODAY.

SURFACE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER TO THE BEAUFORT
SEA WILL MOVE EAST OF BANKS ISLAND MON.

A WARM FRONT FROM CAPE LISBURNE TO MCGRATH WILL MOVE TO WAINWRIGHT TO
CENTRAL BY 3PM SUN...TO BARROW TO OLD CROW BY 3AM MON...AND THEN
MOVE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST MON. EXPECT ANOTHER 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL THIS FEATURE TODAY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND FROM
KOTZEBUE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST TODAY.

A 970 MB LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO NEAR GAMBELL
AS A 981 MB LOW BY 3AM MON...TO NEAR SHISHMAREF AS A 986 MB LOW
BY 3PM MON...TO NEAR CAPE LISBURNE AS A 989 MB LOW BY 3AM
TUE...AND NEAR WAINWRIGHT AS A 992 MB LOW BY 3PM TUE. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS 40KT IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THIS LOW THROUGH MON THEN
STARTING TO DECREASE MON NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS AND THIS WILL
CAUSE SEA LEVELS TO RISE TO 3-5 FT ABOVE NORMAL LATE TONIGHT AND
MON OVER ZONE 214...5-7 FT ABOVE NORMAL ALONG THE NORTON SOUND
COAST FROM EARLY MON THROUGH MON NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT THIS
TO CAUSE HIGH SURF AND MINOR FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. WILL UPGRADE
TO COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR ZONES 211 212 AND 214. OVER ZONE 213
EXPECT HIGH SURF DUE TO THE SHORT FETCH LENGTH AND LACK OF ELEVATED
SEA LEVELS. HIGH SURF CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ZONE 207 WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN DECREASE LATE TONIGHT. AS THE
LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIT MON IS EXPECT HIGH SURF MOST
OF ZONE 207.

A COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM THIS LOW TO CAPE NAVARIN TO ST
PAUL ISLAND WITH A WARM FRONT FROM CAPE NAVARIN TO THE BERING
STRAIT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE BERING STRAIT TO ANVIK BY
3PM SUN WITH THE WARM FRONT FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO POINT HOPE
TO BUCKLAND. EXPECT HEAVY SNOW NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT CHANGING TO
RAIN AND FOG SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. BY 3AM MON THE FRONT WILL
OCCLUDE WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING FROM GAMBELL TO NOME
THEN SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL TO POINT HOPE TO DENALI. EXPECT ANOTHER
2-4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE INTERIOR WITH THIS FRONT...CHANGING TO
RAIN ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF THE FRONT. COULD SEE FREEZING RAIN
ZONE 209 WHERE THERE WILL STILL BE COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS DRAINING
OUT FROM THE INTERIOR. BY 3PM MON THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM POINT
HOPE TO NOME TO GAMBELL TO WAINWRIGHT TO EAGLE. WILL SEE ANOTHER
2-4 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH
LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE EAST. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER
THE WEST COAST ON MON WITH STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND FOG.
BY 3AM TUE THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM POINT LAY TO THE BERING STRAIT
THEN NORTH OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA TO BARROW TO OLD CROW. SNOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE BROOKS RANGE WITH RAIN ALONG
THE WEST COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SHOW SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA THROUGH TUE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...SEA LEVELS ALONG THE WEST
COAST FALLING TUE.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ207-AKZ213.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ207-AKZ208-AKZ209-AKZ216-AKZ217.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ218-AKZ219-AKZ221.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ230.

STORM WARNING FOR PKZ210.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200.
&&

NOV 15