Small Craft Advisory 55, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1200 PM AKDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND VERIFIED WELL AGAINST THE 12Z AND 18Z
ANALYSIS. MODELS SPREAD REMAINS LOW IN THE SHORT TERM AND
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE IN BOTH THE MID TERM AND LONG TERM BOOSTING
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR THOSE PERIODS.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY 576 DAM LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO MERGE WITH A 588 DAM RIDGE
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA. RIDGE AXIS WILL LIE FROM WAINWRIGHT TO
YAKUTAT LINE MONDAY. A 541 DAM LOW CURRENTLY SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS WILL MOVE NORTH TO BE CENTERED NEAR ST PAUL ISLAND AS 538
LOW MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST MONDAY AND WILL BE THE FOCAL
POINT FOR WETTING RAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR MONDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A DENALI NATIONAL PARK TO THE
EASTERN SEWARD PENINSULA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TRANQUIL WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE.

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RAMP UP AGAIN TOMORROW OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE AS VERY WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS COMBINE WITH STRONG GAP FLOWS IN AN NEAR THE
ALASKA RANGE. MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT OVER MOST
OF THE INTERIOR NORTH AND EAST OF MCGRATH WITH LOWEST VALUES
DROPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT OVER THE YUKON FLATS. WINDS MAY
LOCALLY GUST TO NEAR 20 MPH ALONG THE THERMAL TROUGH WHICH WILL
LIE ALONG A EAGLE TO GALENA LINE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...HOWEVER
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA IN ALL ZONES
EXCEPT FOR ZONES 223...225 AND 226. GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WITH PEAK WINDS
EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
RED FLAG HEADLINES FOR STRONG WINDS TO ACCOMPANY AFTERNOON FIRE
WEATHER PACKAGE FOR ZONES 223...225 AND 226 EFFECTIVE NOON TO
MIDNIGHT MONDAY.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND
4...NONE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 45 MPH IN AND NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES COMBINED WITH MIN RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 20S WILL
PROMPT RED FLAG HEADLINES WITH THE AFTERNOON FIRE WEATHER PACKAGE
EFFECTIVE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT FOR ZONES 223...225 AND
226. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A MCGRATH TO THE EASTERN
SEWARD PENINSULA LINE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR BEHIND INCOMING FRONT. TOUGH
CALL AT THIS POINT AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL
REMAIN CHINOOKED WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT VS A MORE
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ230.
&&

CCC JUL 15