Small Craft Advisory 13, NWS Fairbanks, AK

Issued

May 19, 2015, 2:24 PM AKDT (22:24 UTC)

Expired

May 20, 2015, 4:00 AM AKDT

In force

14 hr

Issued by

NWS Fairbanks, AK

425 
FZAK52 PAFG 192224
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
224 PM AKDT TUE MAY 19 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-201200-
224 PM AKDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
997 MB LOW OVER THE PRIBILOFS WILL MOVE TO THE GULF OF ANADYR 4PM
WED AT 995 MB. BY 10 PM THU IT WILL BE WEST OF WRANGELL ISLAND AT
992 MB. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO NOME TO
UNALAKLEET 10 AM WED AND TO POINT LAY TO MCGRATH 10 PM WED. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH OF THE LOW TO THE BERING STRAIT
4AM THU AND TO KOTZEBUE TO UNALAKLEET 4PM THU. A 959 MB LOW WILL
MOVE FROM THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TO THE SOUTHWEST BERING SEA
FRI AM.

$$

PKZ200-201200-
NORTON SOUND-
224 PM AKDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-201200-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
224 PM AKDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-201200-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
224 PM AKDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. 
.WED...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU...S WINDS 20 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI...E WINDS 10 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

PKZ220-201200-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
224 PM AKDT TUE MAY 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...S WINDS 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...E WINDS 30 KT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. RAIN.
.THU...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. 
.FRI...S WINDS 25 KT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 15 KT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 10 KT.  

$$

JL MAY 15

NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at May 19, 1:59 AM AKDT, 12 hours 25 minutes earlier.

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
159 AM AKDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR EVEN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MID
RANGE. THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE NORTHERN ALASKA IS HOT AND DRY IN
THE EAST AND COOLER AND WETTER IN THE WEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN LOCKED INTO WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN
ALASKA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A
DEPARTURE IN THAT CONSENSUS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEK. LONG WAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL REMAIN BUT SQUEEZE
TIGHTER EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SHOWS HUGE DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE BUT CONVERGENCE OVER THE WEST COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.

THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW EXITING THE STATE OFF OF THE NORTHWEST
COAST. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE UP THE WEST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPREADING A FAIRLY DECENT
QPF FIELD AHEAD OF ITS APPROACH.

THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK UNDER THE HIGH ALOFT. CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE NEARLY NON-
EXISTENT FOR NORTHERN ALASKA EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA NORTH OF
EAGLE AND EAST OF FORT YUKON THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE A VERY STABLE AIR MASS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY BELOW 20 PERCENT
FOR MOST AREAS IN MOST INTERIOR ZONES. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME SLIGHT MODERATION MAY OCCUR FOR THE
AREA WEST OF FAIRBANKS BEGINNING THU BUT THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN VERY HOT AND DRY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...DUE TO RAPID SNOW MELT BECAUSE OF THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALL OVER NORTHERN ALASKA...MANY OF THE RIVERS ARE
FILLING UP RAPIDLY. THUS A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FORT
YUKON BECAUSE OF THE PORCUPINE RIVER CONTINUING TO RISE AND EXPECT
THAT THE WATER WILL COME OVER BANK FULL AND POSSIBLY THREATEN
SOME HOMES IN FORT YUKON IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220.
&&

CF MAY 15

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2015Every small craft advisory in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.