Flood Watch 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
159 AM AKDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SIMILAR EVEN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MID
RANGE. THE BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE NORTHERN ALASKA IS HOT AND DRY IN
THE EAST AND COOLER AND WETTER IN THE WEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BEEN LOCKED INTO WESTERN CANADA AND EASTERN
ALASKA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE A
DEPARTURE IN THAT CONSENSUS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS WEEK. LONG WAVE
TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL REMAIN BUT SQUEEZE
TIGHTER EAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL GRADIENT INCREASES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

Q VECTOR ANALYSIS SHOWS HUGE DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE BUT CONVERGENCE OVER THE WEST COAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVES APPROACHING THE WEST COAST.

THE LAST SHORT WAVE IS NOW EXITING THE STATE OFF OF THE NORTHWEST
COAST. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE UP THE WEST COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SPREADING A FAIRLY DECENT
QPF FIELD AHEAD OF ITS APPROACH.

THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEK UNDER THE HIGH ALOFT. CONVECTIVE INDICES ARE NEARLY NON-
EXISTENT FOR NORTHERN ALASKA EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA NORTH OF
EAGLE AND EAST OF FORT YUKON THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE A VERY STABLE AIR MASS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RH VALUES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY BELOW 20 PERCENT
FOR MOST AREAS IN MOST INTERIOR ZONES. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME SLIGHT MODERATION MAY OCCUR FOR THE
AREA WEST OF FAIRBANKS BEGINNING THU BUT THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN VERY HOT AND DRY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...DUE TO RAPID SNOW MELT BECAUSE OF THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES ALL OVER NORTHERN ALASKA...MANY OF THE RIVERS ARE
FILLING UP RAPIDLY. THUS A FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FORT
YUKON BECAUSE OF THE PORCUPINE RIVER CONTINUING TO RISE AND EXPECT
THAT THE WATER WILL COME OVER BANK FULL AND POSSIBLY THREATEN
SOME HOMES IN FORT YUKON IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR AKZ220-AKZ222-AKZ223-AKZ224-AKZ225-AKZ226.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ220.
&&

CF MAY 15