Small Craft Advisory 111, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
311 PM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR THROUGH TUE ALOFT...AND SHOW
SIMILAR PATTERN WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE THE NAM DEVELOPS A
STRONGER LOW IN MACKENZIE BAY ON TUE THAN THE GFS OR ECMF. PREFER
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND THE WARM AIR PUSHING NORTH AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE COLD WATER
IS NOT INDUCIVE TO DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. STILL EXPECT
WESTERLY GALE FORCE WEST WINDS NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON NIGHT AND
TUE EVEN USING GFS SOLUTION...BUT NEED TO BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WINDS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF NEAR SHISHMAREF ENDING THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURF POSSIBLE NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON INTO TUE.
NONE WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GRADUAL DECREASING RH IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR MON AND
EASTERN INTERIOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOOSE CREEK DAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BACKING UP FLOW THROUGH
MON OR TUE. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHENA HIGH FROM THE MOOSE CREEK DAM
DOWNSTREAM TO ITS MOUTH AT THE TANANA RIVER THROUGH MON OR TUE.
THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS THAT NOW HAVE MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWER
CHENA TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON OR TUE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ207.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR 222.

FROST ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

JB AUG 15