Frost Advisory 2, NWS Fairbanks, AK

137 
WWAK73 PAFG 311332
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
532 AM AKDT MON AUG 31 2015

AKZ222-311800-
/O.CON.PAFG.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150831T1800Z/
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...
NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...
CHENA HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP
532 AM AKDT MON AUG 31 2015

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATION...IN VALLEYS INCLUDING FAIRBANKS.

* TEMPERATURE...25 TO 32.

* TIMING...TEMPERATURES LOCALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL
  PERSIST THROUGH 10 AM THIS MORNING. FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE
  TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
  IN WEDNESDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS EXPECTED. PROTECT SENSITIVE
OUTDOOR PLANTS WHICH MAY BE DAMAGED BY COLD TEMPERATURES.

&&

$$

815 
WWAK73 PAFG 311743
NPWAFG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
943 AM AKDT MON AUG 31 2015

AKZ222-311845-
/O.EXP.PAFG.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-150831T1800Z/
MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY-
INCLUDING...FAIRBANKS...FORT WAINWRIGHT...EIELSON AFB...ESTER...
NORTH POLE...MOOSE CREEK...TWO RIVERS...FOX...CHATANIKA...
CHENA HOT SPRINGS...SOURDOUGH CAMP
943 AM AKDT MON AUG 31 2015

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 10 AM AKDT THIS MORNING...

LIGHT FROST OCCURRED IN MANY LOCATIONS AROUND FAIRBANKS OVER
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOW WARMING AND WILL RISE TO NEAR 50
TODAY. MORE FROST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES NEAR 30 BOTH NIGHTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


$$

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
311 PM AKDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE WELL AND SIMILAR THROUGH TUE ALOFT...AND SHOW
SIMILAR PATTERN WED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH SIGHT DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING OF SHORT WAVES. AT THE SURFACE THE NAM DEVELOPS A
STRONGER LOW IN MACKENZIE BAY ON TUE THAN THE GFS OR ECMF. PREFER
THE WEAKER GFS SOLUTION AS THE MAIN LOW REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA
AND THE WARM AIR PUSHING NORTH AT LOW LEVELS OVER THE COLD WATER
IS NOT INDUCIVE TO DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW. STILL EXPECT
WESTERLY GALE FORCE WEST WINDS NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON NIGHT AND
TUE EVEN USING GFS SOLUTION...BUT NEED TO BE AWARE OF POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WINDS.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
HIGH SURF NEAR SHISHMAREF ENDING THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURF POSSIBLE NEAR BARTER ISLAND MON INTO TUE.
NONE WED THROUGH FRI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GRADUAL DECREASING RH IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR MON AND
EASTERN INTERIOR TUE AND WED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOOSE CREEK DAM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BACKING UP FLOW THROUGH
MON OR TUE. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHENA HIGH FROM THE MOOSE CREEK DAM
DOWNSTREAM TO ITS MOUTH AT THE TANANA RIVER THROUGH MON OR TUE.
THIS WILL CAUSE AREAS THAT NOW HAVE MINOR FLOODING ON THE LOWER
CHENA TO CONTINUE THROUGH MON OR TUE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ204-AKZ207.

FLOOD ADVISORY FOR 222.

FROST ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ240-PKZ245.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ245.
&&

JB AUG 15