Gale Warning 98, NWS Fairbanks, AK

894 
FZAK52 PAFG 082259
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
259 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-091400-
259 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
A 995 MB LOW 260 NM WEST OF ST PAUL ISLAND WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MERGE WITH 968 MB LOW CURRENTLY 200 NM SOUTH OF
KODIAK. THIS LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AS A 971 MB
LOW FRI MORNING AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH SAT.  HIGH
PRESSURE OF 1020 MB WILL MOVE FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA FRI
AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ200-091400-
NORTON SOUND-
259 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-091400-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
259 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-091400-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
259 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-091400-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
259 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 35 KT NORTH OF KIVALINA. ELSEWHERE NORTHEAST
WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WINDS 35 KT NORTH OF KIVALINA DECREASING TO 30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

NS/RM OCT 15

445 
FZAK52 PAFG 091121
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
321 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-100230-
321 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1020 MB WILL MOVE FROM THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA
FRI AFTERNOON TO THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY SAT AFTERNOON.
A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE WEST COAST
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.

$$

PKZ200-100230-
NORTON SOUND-
321 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-100230-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
321 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-100230-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
321 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-100230-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
321 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...NE WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

JK OCT 15

189 
FZAK52 PAFG 092214
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
214 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-101315-
214 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1025 MB OVER SIBERIA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND WEAKEN TO 1017 MB BY SUN MORNING. A 996 MB LOW 100
NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WILL MOVE NW AND MERGE WITH A 972 MB LOW
NEAR SAND POINT ON SAT. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
GULF AND STRENGTHEN TO 967 MB NEAR SITKA BY SUN EVENING...THEN
WILL MOVE NW TO MERGE WITH THE BROADER LOW OVER THE GULF ON MON.

$$

PKZ200-101315-
NORTON SOUND-
214 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-101315-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
214 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-101315-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
214 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-101315-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
214 PM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS DECREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

RM/NS OCT 15

013 
FZAK52 PAFG 101109
CWFWCZ

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
309 AM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015

NORTHWESTERN ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ299-110215-
309 AM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR NORTHWEST COAST...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN SIBERIA INTO THE EXTREME
WESTERN BERING SEA WHILE A BROAD 971 MB LOW IS NEAR SAND POINT AND
ANOTHER LOW AT 974 MB IS NEAR THE KENAI PENINSULA THIS MORNING.
THE LATTER LOW WILL MERGE AND THE BROAD LOW WILL WEAKEN TO 977 MB
THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK RIDING WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA SUN AS LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE MAINLAND.

$$

PKZ200-110215-
NORTON SOUND-
309 AM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015

.TODAY...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ210-110215-
DALL POINT TO WALES-
309 AM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...N WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ215-110215-
KOTZEBUE SOUND-
309 AM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ220-110215-
WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
309 AM AKDT SAT OCT 10 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
THIS AFTERNOON...

.TODAY...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON NIGHT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

ET/JK OCT 15

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
325 PM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015

.DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SITUATE OVER THE
BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
BRING SEVERAL BURSTS OF COOLER AIR FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF ALASKA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND THE BUILDING ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS LED TO SOME STOUT EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WHERE TRANSPORTABLE
SNOW EXISTS. WHILE THE NORTHERN COAST WILL SEE COLDER AIR FILTERING
IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A QUICKLY DEEPENING LOW MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS ALASKA ON
THURSDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION INLAND IS DIFFICULT
TO DERIVE AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN LOW PLACEMENT AND THE
MODELS HAVE NOT DIRECTLY SAMPLED THE WARM AIR...JUST PARAMETERIZED
THE WARMER AIR AT THIS TIME. NEVERTHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THANKS TO THE LOW IN THE
GULF ADVECTING WARMER AIR NORTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY MORNING AND FALL APART RATHER RAPIDLY.
HOWEVER...NUMEROUS FRAGMENTS OF ENERGY WILL ROTATING WITHIN THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH MOISTURE
AND WARMER AIR FROM THE LOW IN THE GULF...IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT
SHOT OF RAIN WILL BE SEEN NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE INTO THE TANANA
VALLEY. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS BUT SOUTH
OF FORT YUKON. THIS WARM UP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED (THROUGH SATURDAY)
AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND THE COLDER AIR FROM THE ARCTIC TAKES
CONTROL.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ500

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215

&&

MC OCT 15