Gale Warning 91, NWS Fairbanks, AK

432 
FZAK69 PAFG 082300
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-091400-
300 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY WHILE A TROUGH INLAND OVER THE ARCTIC SLOPE STRENGTHENS.
THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SAT AS 996MB LOW OVER THE HIGH ARCTIC SLIDES
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EAST SIBERIAN SEA. A FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE ARCTIC COAST WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

$$

PKZ500-091400-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
300 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-091400-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
300 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

.TONIGHT...N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ510-091400-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
300 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

NTS OCT 15

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
325 PM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015

.DISCUSSION... A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING TREND AS IT BEGINS TO DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SITUATE OVER THE
BEAUFORT AND CHUKCHI SEAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
BRING SEVERAL BURSTS OF COOLER AIR FROM THE ARCTIC TO THE NORTHERN
COAST OF ALASKA. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND THE BUILDING ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WHICH HAS LED TO SOME STOUT EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST AND SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WHERE TRANSPORTABLE
SNOW EXISTS. WHILE THE NORTHERN COAST WILL SEE COLDER AIR FILTERING
IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A QUICKLY DEEPENING LOW MOVING TO THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA WILL DRIVE A WARM FRONT ACROSS ALASKA ON
THURSDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION INLAND IS DIFFICULT
TO DERIVE AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN LOW PLACEMENT AND THE
MODELS HAVE NOT DIRECTLY SAMPLED THE WARM AIR...JUST PARAMETERIZED
THE WARMER AIR AT THIS TIME. NEVERTHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A
SIGNIFICANT WARM UP WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THANKS TO THE LOW IN THE
GULF ADVECTING WARMER AIR NORTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WILL MOVE INLAND THURSDAY MORNING AND FALL APART RATHER RAPIDLY.
HOWEVER...NUMEROUS FRAGMENTS OF ENERGY WILL ROTATING WITHIN THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TO THE
ALASKA PANHANDLE. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COUPLED WITH MOISTURE
AND WARMER AIR FROM THE LOW IN THE GULF...IT APPEARS THAT A DECENT
SHOT OF RAIN WILL BE SEEN NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE INTO THE TANANA
VALLEY. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF FAIRBANKS BUT SOUTH
OF FORT YUKON. THIS WARM UP SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED (THROUGH SATURDAY)
AS THE AIR MASS MODIFIES AND THE COLDER AIR FROM THE ARCTIC TAKES
CONTROL.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ240-PKZ245

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ500

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ215

&&

MC OCT 15