Gale Warning 69, NWS Fairbanks, AK

856 
FZAK51 PAFG 271357 AAA
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
557 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-280315-
557 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A 984 MB LOW 200 NM NORTH OF BARROW WILL MOVE 250 NM NORTH OF
BARROW AT 4PM THU...THEN DRIFT BACK SOUTH. IT WILL WEAKEN TO
992 MB ON FRIDAY.

$$

PKZ225-280315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
557 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT NORTH OF CAPE LISBURNE THIS
MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FOG. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FOG. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.SAT NIGHT...S WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.SUN...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-280315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
557 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FOG. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.  
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SUN...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-280315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
557 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FOG. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FOG. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-280315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
557 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...

.TODAY...W WINDS INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS MORNING AND TO 35 KT
AFTER NOON. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.SAT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-280315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
557 AM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...

.TODAY...W 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FOG. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FOG. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FOG. 
.SAT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FOG. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

DJH/EP AUG 15

616 
FZAK51 PAFG 272208
CWFNSB

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR ARCTIC ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
208 PM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

ARCTIC ALASKA COASTAL WATERS OUT 100 NM

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-
THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ298-281315-
208 PM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC COAST...
A ELONGATED 985 MB LOW 250 NM NORTH OF BARROW THAT STRETCHES TO
THE AMUNDSEN GULF WILL STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN TO 992 MB AND MOVE TO 150 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW ON FRIDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA BY SAT.

$$

PKZ225-281315-
CAPE THOMPSON TO CAPE BEAUFORT-
208 PM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ230-281315-
CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN-
208 PM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ235-281315-
POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
208 PM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ240-281315-
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
208 PM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ245-281315-
FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION POINT-
208 PM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

ET AUG 15

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
425 PM AKDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OUT TO
48-54 HRS. THEREAFTER...DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE APPARENT...ESPECIALLY
IN STRENGTH AND PHASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN ALASKA.

.ALOFT...
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS WEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...EXTREME
SOUTHERN BERING SEA...AND TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN INTERIOR EARLY TONIGHT.
FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORT
LOBE WILL MOVE FROM NEAR POINT HOPE TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR BY EARLY THU. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN DIG
FARTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN ALASKA...STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF
ALASKA BY THU AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH.
WHEREIN...THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN POSITIONING
THE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS/NORTHEAST
PACIFIC BY FRI EVENING.

WINDS ALOFT STAY ELEVATED OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA. 850 HPA
WINDS ROTATING AROUND A LOW JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL ARCTIC
COAST WILL BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH SLOPE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
850 HPA TROUGH IS BRINGING MODERATE WINDS TO THE SURFACE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.

.SURFACE...
CURRENTLY...A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LIES FROM CAPE HALKETT...TO
KOTZEBUE...TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A 987 MB LOW 200
NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL MOVE TO ROUGHLY
DEMARCATION POINT...TO TANANA...TO THE YUKON DELTA BY 4 AM...THEN
EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY THU AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL FILL IN ALONG THE WEST COAST BEHIND
THE FRONT THU. MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE NEAR THE CENTRAL
ARCTIC COAST WILL STAY RELATIVELY STATIONARY THU AND FRI.

THE STRONG WINDS SEEN ALOFT HAS PROMPTED STRONG WIND HEADLINES
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE. A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...ZONE 222...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
MODERATE WINDS WILL BE SEEN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST BUT WILL BE BELOW HEADLINE/ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
ABOVE 2000 FEET. THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING SNOW AND FREEZING
LEVELS WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH DECENT LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR 4 TO 7 INCHES IN A
24-HR PERIOD.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4... HIGH SURF ZONES
211...212..214 WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THU MORNING. HIGH SURF ZONES
201 AND 202 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT THURSDAY NIGHT.

MODERATE SURF ZONE 204 THU AND THU NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICE
SHOVE ONSHORE.

MODERATE SURF ZONE 207 AT SHISHMAREF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY STAYING
ABOVE 40 PERCENT THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT FOR LIMITED PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN INTERIOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL EVENT TOTALS RANGE FROM GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR ALASKA. ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE FORTY
MILE COUNTRY...EAST OF FORT YUKON...AND THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.

THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RISES ON THE CHENA...SALCHA...AND
CHATANIKA RIVERS HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THE TANANA WILL ALSO SEE A SMALL RISE. ELSEWHERE...RISING
LEVELS AND HIGH WATER CAN BE EXPECTED IN SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BROOKS RANGE. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SEWARD
PENINSULA...SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST...AND EASTERN NORTON
SOUND AND NULATO HILLS. AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF INCH IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

AUG 15