Gale Warning 63, NWS Fairbanks, AK

430 
FZAK69 PAFG 272209
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
209 PM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-281315-
209 PM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A ELONGATED 985 MB LOW 250 NM NORTH OF BARROW THAT STRETCHES TO
THE AMUNDSEN GULF WILL STAY IN PLACE OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN TO 992 MB AND MOVE TO 150 NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW ON FRIDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ALASKA BY SAT..

$$

PKZ500-281315-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
209 PM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...W WINDS 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SAT...NW WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WINDS 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-281315-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
209 PM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO FORECAST AS AREA IS MOSTLY ICE-COVERED.

$$

PKZ510-281315-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
209 PM AKDT THU AUG 27 2015

NO FORECAST AS AREA IS MOSTLY ICE-COVERED.

$$

ET AUG 15

016 
FZAK69 PAFG 281303
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
503 AM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-290015-
503 AM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
THE 990 MB LOW 250 MI NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT WILL MOVE SOUTH TO BE
ABOUT 150 MI NORTH OF WAINWRIGHT AT 4PM FRI AND 50 NM N OF
WAINWRIGHT AT 4AM SAT. 

$$

PKZ500-290015-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
503 AM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WINDS 35 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 50 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 35 KT...DIMINISHING BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FOG.
.SUN...E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-290015-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
503 AM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO FORECAST AS AREA IS MOSTLY ICE-COVERED.

$$

PKZ510-290015-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
503 AM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO FORECAST AS AREA IS MOSTLY ICE-COVERED.

$$

DJH AUG 15

182 
FZAK69 PAFG 282236
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
236 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-291345-
236 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 986 MB LOW 150 NM NORTHWEST OF POINT BARROW WILL MOVE OVER
WAINWRIGHT BY 10 AM SAT. THE LOW OVER WAINWRIGHT WILL WEAKEN INTO
A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA BY 4 PM SAT AND WILL
PERSIST INTO SUN. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE LOW
IN THE HIGH ARCTIC LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN.

$$

PKZ500-291345-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
236 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WINDS 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-291345-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
236 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO FORECAST AS AREA IS MOSTLY ICE-COVERED.

$$

PKZ510-291345-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
236 PM AKDT FRI AUG 28 2015

NO FORECAST AS AREA IS MOSTLY ICE-COVERED.

$$

ET/JK AUG 15

283 
FZAK69 PAFG 291225
OFFAFG

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
425 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE US ARCTIC WATERS

SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF
THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
TWICE AS HIGH.

PKZ599-300015-
425 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS FOR ARCTIC WATERS...
A 992 MB LOW NEAR BARROW WILL MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN TO 1000 MB
OVER INTERIOR ALASKA SUN AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
NORTHEAST RUSSIA AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WILL MOVE TO
THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA AND NORTH SLOPE BY MON. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP FROM THE MACKENZIE DELTA NORTHWEST INTO THE EASTERN
BEAUFORT SEA ON MON.

$$

PKZ500-300015-
WESTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
425 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.TODAY...N WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...E WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ505-300015-
CENTRAL US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
425 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO FORECAST AS AREA IS MOSTLY ICE-COVERED.

$$

PKZ510-300015-
EASTERN US ARCTIC OFFSHORE-
425 AM AKDT SAT AUG 29 2015

NO FORECAST AS AREA IS MOSTLY ICE-COVERED.

$$

EWP/DJH AUG 15

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
425 PM AKDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OUT TO
48-54 HRS. THEREAFTER...DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE APPARENT...ESPECIALLY
IN STRENGTH AND PHASE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN ALASKA.

.ALOFT...
LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS WEST TOWARDS THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND
OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WITH A RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...EXTREME
SOUTHERN BERING SEA...AND TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN INTERIOR EARLY TONIGHT.
FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORT
LOBE WILL MOVE FROM NEAR POINT HOPE TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TO THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR BY EARLY THU. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN DIG
FARTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN ALASKA...STRETCHING TO THE GULF OF
ALASKA BY THU AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL BUILD
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH.
WHEREIN...THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN POSITIONING
THE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE QUEEN CHARLOTTE ISLANDS/NORTHEAST
PACIFIC BY FRI EVENING.

WINDS ALOFT STAY ELEVATED OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA. 850 HPA
WINDS ROTATING AROUND A LOW JUST OFFSHORE THE CENTRAL ARCTIC
COAST WILL BRING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH SLOPE TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. ELSEWHERE...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
850 HPA TROUGH IS BRINGING MODERATE WINDS TO THE SURFACE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.

.SURFACE...
CURRENTLY...A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT LIES FROM CAPE HALKETT...TO
KOTZEBUE...TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND ASSOCIATED WITH A 987 MB LOW 200
NM NORTHWEST OF BARROW. THE TROUGH AND FRONT WILL MOVE TO ROUGHLY
DEMARCATION POINT...TO TANANA...TO THE YUKON DELTA BY 4 AM...THEN
EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY THU AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL FILL IN ALONG THE WEST COAST BEHIND
THE FRONT THU. MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW OFFSHORE NEAR THE CENTRAL
ARCTIC COAST WILL STAY RELATIVELY STATIONARY THU AND FRI.

THE STRONG WINDS SEEN ALOFT HAS PROMPTED STRONG WIND HEADLINES
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE. A WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY...ZONE 222...TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.
MODERATE WINDS WILL BE SEEN ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST BUT WILL BE BELOW HEADLINE/ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT.

A WINTER STORM WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
ABOVE 2000 FEET. THE COMBINATION OF DECREASING SNOW AND FREEZING
LEVELS WITH THE EASTWARD MOVING FRONT...SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE...FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH DECENT LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH ZONE...SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR 4 TO 7 INCHES IN A
24-HR PERIOD.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4... HIGH SURF ZONES
211...212..214 WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THU MORNING. HIGH SURF ZONES
201 AND 202 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT AKDT THURSDAY NIGHT.

MODERATE SURF ZONE 204 THU AND THU NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR ICE
SHOVE ONSHORE.

MODERATE SURF ZONE 207 AT SHISHMAREF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS. MINIMUM RH VALUES GENERALLY STAYING
ABOVE 40 PERCENT THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT FOR LIMITED PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN INTERIOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL EVENT TOTALS RANGE FROM GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR ALASKA. ANOTHER 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OVER THE FORTY
MILE COUNTRY...EAST OF FORT YUKON...AND THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.

THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RISES ON THE CHENA...SALCHA...AND
CHATANIKA RIVERS HOWEVER...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW FLOOD
STAGE. THE TANANA WILL ALSO SEE A SMALL RISE. ELSEWHERE...RISING
LEVELS AND HIGH WATER CAN BE EXPECTED IN SMALLER RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FLOOD ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BROOKS RANGE. FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SEWARD
PENINSULA...SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA COAST...AND EASTERN NORTON
SOUND AND NULATO HILLS. AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OF INCH IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ222.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ201-AKZ202-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ206.

FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ212.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-
PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ230-PKZ235-PKZ240-PKZ245.
&&

AUG 15