Gale Warning 144, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1206 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...EXCELLENT CONTINUITY AND GOOD AGREEMENT THE LAST FEW
RUNS. THE GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZED WITHIN 2 MB AT THE SURFACE.
WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECASTS FOR THE
NEXT CYCLE.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...VERTICALLY STACKED 492 DAM LOW OVER ST
MATTHEW ISLAND CONTINUES TO FILL AS IT MOVES NORTH TO BE OVER ST
LAWRENCE ISLAND BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT 501 DAM...THEN OVER
THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY AT 508 DAM AND FILLING
RAPIDLY. A 495 DAM LOW OVER THE NORTHERN KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL
MOVE TO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TUESDAY MORNING AT 503 DAM...AND
OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW OVER THE
CHUKOTSK PENINSULA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE ARCTIC...WHILE THE LOW
OVER THE PRIBILOFS WILL BE ABSORBED BY A 515 DAM LOW THAT DEVELOPS
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL STRENGTHEN AS SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA TODAY WITH 522 DAM HEIGHTS PUSHING NORTH OVER THE MIDDLE
TANANA AND UPPER YUKON VALLEYS. A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE
EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY PUSHING THE RIDGING SOUTHEAST...AND A
THIRD SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK NORTH AND WEST BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE WITH
522 DAM HEIGHTS OVER MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. AT 850
HPA...SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
UP A COUPLE DEGREES THEN COOLS BACK DOWN BEFORE THE LAST SHORTWAVE
IN THE SERIES MOVES THROUGH AND RAISES THEM A COUPLE DEGREES.
MODELS ARE A BIT CONFLICTED IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH THE GFS
BRINGING -20 CELSIUS TEMPERATURES OVER FAIRBANKS ON MONDAY WHILE
THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 10 CELSIUS WARMER.

SURFACE...THE STORM IN THE BERING SEA CONTINUES TO FILL AND IS
NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND AT AROUND 961 MB AND WILL MOVE OVER
WESTERN ST LAWRENCE ISLAND TONIGHT AS A 971 MB LOW...THEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN CHUKOTSK PENINSULA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 984 MB. A
STRONG GRADIENT REMAINS AROUND THE LOW WITH NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS
AT THE CENTER AND GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING ALMOST 200 NM FROM
THE CENTER. LEE SIDE TROUGHING PERSISTS NORTH OF THE ALASKA AND
BROOKS RANGES WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS
AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY. WEAK GAP FLOW WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE
TODAY WILL KICK IT UP A BIT ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS A BIT THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE. GRADIENT ALSO TIGHTENS A
BIT THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE.

SATELLITE...NPP VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB PRODUCT AT
14/1615Z FROM SPORT INDICATES STRATUS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ARCTIC
COAST AND MACKENZIE BAY...WITH A BIG PATCHY OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND AS
WELL. HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM IN THE BERING SEA ARE
MASKING SOME AREAS BUT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE STRATUS IN THOSE
AREAS AS WELL. GOES IR LOOPS SHOWING BANDS OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

RADAR...BETHEL RADAR IS NOT OPERATIONAL. NOME RADAR SHOWED A
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTON SOUND AND SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA IS MOVING TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 11 AM AND
INDICATES THERE WILL BE A BREAK THIS AFTERNOON WITH NOT MUCH
SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...CLOUDY...FLURRIES...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...BLOWING SNOW...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS. WINDS
NOT AS STRONG THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT
THEM TO PICK UP AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOULD NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME BLOWING SNOW IN THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE PASSES.
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER...BUT FOR MOST AREAS ONLY A COUPLE
DEGREES. OVER THE PLAINS AREAS COULD BE MUCH WARMER AS THE WIND
MAY MIX OUT THE INVERSION.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...NOT A LOT OF CHANGE EXPECTED
UNTIL THE STORM GETS OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY COME DOWN TONIGHT...BUT BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MANY AREAS. BANDS OF SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE LOW THROUGH TUESDAY...SO THERE WILL
BE PERIODS WHEN THE SNOW LETS UP. SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES
OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE LOWER YUKON DELTA...BUT THE THREAT
WILL DIMINISH AS COLD AIR WRAPS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
LOW AND OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...NICE LITTLE WARM UP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH THE FIRST OF THE SHORTWAVES OVERNIGHT. A LITTLE
COOLER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW IN THE INTERIOR WITH THIS NEXT SHORTWAVE...BUT STILL
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR MOST AREAS AND ONLY A FEW AREAS COULD SEE
AN INCH OF NEW SNOW. WINDS IN THE ALASKA RANGE WILL TAPER OFF A
LITTLE TONIGHT...THEN START RAMPING UP TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 55 MPH IN THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE AND GUSTS TO AROUND
45 MPH IN THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE...WINDS WILL DROP OFF BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN MOST AREAS. A WEAK TANANA JET WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE DELTA JUNCTION AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ214.

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ215.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ235-
PKZ240-PKZ245.

&&

SDB DEC 15