Gale Warning 143, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
159 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS...GOOD AGREEMENT. INITIALIZED WELL AGAINST THE 18Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS. CONTINUITY HAS BEEN GOOD...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THE LOW WILL BE POSITIONED WEDNESDAY. WILL
USE CONTINUITY FOR THE MOST PART...BLENDING IN A LITTLE OF THE
LATEST RUNS TO PICK UP MINOR CHANGES.

ALOFT...AT 500 HPA...VERTICALLY STACKED 480 DAM LOW IN THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA MOVING NORTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER ST LAWRENCE
ISLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AT 497 DAM. THEN WEAKENS RAPIDLY AS IT
MOVES OVER THE CHUKOTSK PENINSULA TUESDAY. RIDGING WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE STATE AS SHORTWAVE SPINS AROUND THE LOW AND PUSHES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE AS IT WEAKENS. RIDGING REESTABLISHES
OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE WITH 522 DAM HEIGHTS PUSHING
NORTH OVER THE UPPER YUKON FLATS BY TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEST TO
THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SURFACE...928 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND BE OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND MID DAY MONDAY. THE
OCCLUDED FRONT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTH OVER THE WEST
COAST WITH A BAND OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE YUKON VALLEY.
FRONT IS STRETCHING PRETTY THIN AS IT WORKS NORTH AND IS REMAINING
WEST OF TANANA AS THE RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR BLOCKS IT FROM
VENTURING TOO FAR EAST. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA WILL DIMINISH A BIT...BUT EXPECT BANDS OF PRECIPITATION TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND WITH STRONG GRADIENT
PERSISTING OVER THE AREA BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
OCCASIONALLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS IN THE LOWER YUKON
DELTA...ON ST LAWRENCE ISLAND...AND NEAR THE BERING STRAIT.
GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE WILL TRIGGER SOME GUSTY
WINDS IN AND NEAR PASSES.

SATELLITE...NPP VIIRS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB PRODUCT AT
13/1812Z FROM SPORT SHOWS A PRETTY EXTENSIVE BAND OF STRATUS OVER
THE ARCTIC COAST FROM WAINWRIGHT EAST. ALSO SHOWING SOME STRATUS
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN INTERIOR. UNFORTUNATELY IT ONLY COVERS FROM
AROUND THE ARCTIC CIRCLE NORTH TODAY. GOES IR LOOPS SHOWING THE
BLACK STRATUS DEVELOPING EARLIER TODAY IS NOW DISSIPATING IN SOME
AREAS. ALSO SHOWS THE OCCLUDED FRONT WELL OUT IN ADVANCE OF OF
THE LOW AND CONTINUING TO STRETCH OUT AS IT MOVES FURTHER FROM THE
LOW.

RADAR...BANDS OF PRECIPITATION SHOWING UP ON THE BETHEL AND NOME
RADARS AS THEY MARCH NORTH. SNOW OVER THE LOWER YUKON DELTA MOVING
INTO NORTON SOUND AND OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AT NOON WILL
CONTINUE NORTH.

ARCTIC COAST AND BROOKS RANGE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER THE ARCTIC COAST AS THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA MOVES NORTH AND
LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE. STRATUS OVER
THE AREA IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT...SO CONTINUE WITH SOME
FLURRIES OVER THE AREA...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED. SOME BLOWING SNOW AS THE WINDS PICK UP WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO AROUND A MILE AT TIMES. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER
THE NORTHWEST COAST WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES ON THE RISE AND WILL WARM TO AROUND ZERO FROM BARROW
WEST AND INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW TO THE EAST.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...LOT OF STUFF GOING ON HERE WITH
THE STRONG BERING SEA LOW MOVING NORTH TO ST LAWRENCE ISLAND BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALREADY OCCURRING IN THE
LOWER YUKON DELTA WILL CONTINUE ON AND OFF FOR THE NEXT 18 TO 24
HOURS. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MOVING OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS
EVENING AS THE SNOW MOVES NORTH. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH SNOW NORTH
OF NOME...BUT WITH THE WINDS PICKING UP OVER KOTZEBUE SOUND NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND
KOTZEBUE AND THE COASTAL AREAS AROUND DEERING.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MODELS ARE A BIT CONFLICTED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE INTERIOR. WILL LEAN ON THE
NAM THAT IS MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE AND ONLY BRING IN SOME FLURRIES
AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. SOME GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH AND NEAR ALASKA RANGE PASSES BUT NOT MUCH STRONGER THAN
45 MPH. A LITTLE WARMER BEHIND THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS THE RIDGE
REESTABLISHES OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR.

&&

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ215.

BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ213-AKZ214.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ209-AKZ210-AKZ211.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ210.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ215-PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230-PKZ240-
PKZ245.

&&

SDB DEC 15