Gale Warning 115, NWS Fairbanks, AK

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
215 PM AKST SAT NOV 7 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS VERY SIMILAR THROUGH 60 HOURS. THE MODELS HAVE COME
TOGETHER AND WORKED OUT THEIR DIFFERENCES AMONG THEMSELVES FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS. THE CONSENSUS THINKING NOW IS TO BRING THE SURFACE
LOW CENTER OF THE DEEP LOW STRAIT THROUGH NORTON SOUND. THIS IS
SIGNIFICANT AS WE BELIEVE NOW THAT THIS WILL MITIGATE THE MOST
SERIOUS THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING IN ZONES 211 AND 212. THE YK
DELTA SEEMS TO BE ANOTHER ISSUE AT THE MOMENT THOUGH AS IT APPEARS
IT WILL BE THE MOST IMPACTED.

AS THE DEEP LOW MOVES TOWARDS NORTON SOUND IT DEVELOPS A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE AHEAD OF IT...THIS WILL CREATE STRONG WINDS IN THE
ALASKA RANGE. HENCE HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE BEING ISSUED FOR THE
ALASKA RANGE ZONES THAT ARE AT THE MOST THREAT. AS THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES INLAND...THERE IS SOME DISPARITY OF ITS EXACT TRACK THEN
BUT IT CERTAINLY WILL FILL RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES EAST OR NORTHEAST.

THE FRONT WILL SPREAD A COMBINATION OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST COAST FROM THE ARCTIC COAST TO THE ALASKA RANGE BEFORE THE
FRONT BREAKS UP IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR MON.

WINDS ON THE WEST COAST WILL CERTAINLY REACH GALE IN MANY AREAS
AND THEN THEN THE COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP DOWN BEHIND THE LOW OVER
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH CONTINUED STRONG WINDS. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE SEVERAL INCHES OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW OVER SAINT LAWRENCE
ISLAND MON NIGHT AND TUE.

AS THE LOW AND ITS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EASTWARD...ANOTHER COLD
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE RUSSIAN ARCTIC TO OVER THE
BERING SEA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
USHERING IN VERY COLD AIR TO ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.

COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR AKZ214-AKZ225-AKZ226.

WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ227.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ214.

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ220-PKZ225-PKZ230.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ225-PKZ230.

BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ235-PKZ240.

GALE WARNING FOR PKZ200-PKZ210-PKZ225-PKZ230.
&&

CF NOV 15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
835 AM AKST SAT NOV 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 AM     HEAVY SNOW       2 W TWO RIVERS          64.87N 147.17W
11/07/2015  M5.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            2.75 INCHES OF NEW SNOW OVERNIGHT WITH A TOTAL THIS EVENT
            OF 5 INCHES. TEMP 23F

&&

HLIND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1126 AM AKST SAT NOV 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 AM     HEAVY SNOW       2 N FAIRBANKS           64.87N 147.65W
11/07/2015  M5.3 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            BIRCH HILL SNOW FALL AS OF 5 PM 6 NOV, 2.8 INCHES,
            OVERNIGHT, AS OF 11 AM THIS MORNING, 2.5 INCHES. TOTAL
            EVENT SNOWFALL OF 5.3 INCHES.

&&

HLIND