Winter Storm Warning 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

953 
WWAK41 PAFC 251400
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

AKZ125-260300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0005.151225T1800Z-151226T1500Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
500 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 
9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM AKST SATURDAY...

* SNOW...13 TO 26 INCHES...HIGHEST AMOUNTS THROUGH TURNAGAIN PASS AND
  NEAR GIRDWOOD.

* VISIBILITY...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. 

* WIND...EAST WIND 10 TO 25 MPH EXCEPT EAST 40 TO 55 MPH THROUGH
  PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM...STRONGEST WINDS THIS
  EVENING.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING THEN BECOME HEAVY THIS
  AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR INLAND
  AREAS BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS ALONG
  THE COAST WILL CHANGE TO RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
  RESULTING IN LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERALL. 

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
  SEVERELY LIMITED IN HEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

896 
WWAK41 PAFC 260101
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
401 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

AKZ125-261500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-151226T1500Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
401 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6
AM AKST SATURDAY...

* SNOW...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 16 INCHES...HIGHEST
  AMOUNTS THROUGH TURNAGAIN PASS AND NEAR GIRDWOOD. TOTAL SNOW
  ACCUMULATION 13 TO 24 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING
  SNOW...MAINLY THROUGH TURNAGAIN PASS AND PORTAGE VALLEY.

* WIND...EAST WIND 10 TO 25 MPH EXCEPT EAST 35 TO 50 MPH THROUGH
  PORTAGE VALLEY AND TURNAGAIN ARM...STRONGEST WINDS THROUGH LATE
  THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR INLAND
  AREAS BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LOCATIONS ALONG
  THE COAST WILL SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW RESULTING IN LESS
  SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERALL.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE 
  SEVERELY LIMITED IN HEAVY SNOWFALL AND BLOWING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

268 
WWAK41 PAFC 261350
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
450 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2015

AKZ125-261500-
/O.CAN.PAFC.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-151226T1500Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
450 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE
WINTER STORM WARNING. 

STEADY SNOW HAS ENDED ACROSS WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
550 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO A MUCH MORE
ACTIVE REGIME THIS MORNING...WITH A POWERFUL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC DRIVING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG STORM FORCE LOW (IN THE UPPER 950 HPA RANGE) NORTHEAST OF
SHEMYA. WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE PLUME
OF EXTENSIVE HIGH CIRRUS AND THE ASSOCIATED COMMA CLOUD MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A VERY LARGE AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH ADVECTS WARM AND MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WARM FRONT IS TRAVELING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND
HAS ALREADY CLEARED THE ENTIRE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. WITH AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE...STRONG INVERSIONS AND OFFSHORE FLOW ARE KEEPING INLAND
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA RATHER COLD AT THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL KEEP LOCATIONS VULNERABLE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVEN AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TODAY...WHICH HAS ALREADY COMMENCED IN
EARNEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COAST. OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...A MORE
MUNDANE PATTERN IS IN PLACE AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC...RESULTING IN A MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST. HOWEVER...INLAND...WINDS ARE LARGELY WEAK AND
SLACK...WITH EXTENSIVE REGIONS OF LOW STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
REMAINING IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. EVENTUALLY WITH TIME...A
SECONDARY DEEP LOW WILL FORM AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC...THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA
FRIDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THEY ARE
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY
MAX STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER WITH SMALLER BUT IMPORTANT DETAILS. THERE
REMAINS TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE
FAVORING A FARTHER NORTH TRACK EAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WHILE
THE GFS AND NAM ARE FARTHER SOUTH...MUCH CLOSER TO UNALASKA AND
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL IMPACT WHERE THE
STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS ARE LOCATED AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND FAR WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS FORECAST FAVORED A POSITION IN BETWEEN THE
DISPARATE SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
CORE OF WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND NORTH INTO
BRISTOL BAY. OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...THE DISPARITIES ARE SMALLER...AND
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH WILL BRING
TYPICAL SOUTHEAST GAP WINDS AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TO PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN KENAI AND INTO TURNAGAIN ARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK EMBEDDED WARM FRONT THAT IS OVER KODIAK THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THOSE AREAS. A STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP ALEUTIAN LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND KODIAK
ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THEN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURGE OF WARM AIR NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL FALL IN COASTAL AREAS...WITH THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA
TAKING THE BRUNT OF IT DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW AT
LOW LEVELS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW...AND LIKELY STAY
ALL SNOW FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN KENAI...BUT MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR COASTAL AREAS. DOWN-SLOPING WILL ALLOW VERY
LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO FALL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A POTENT WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO THE STRONG LOW IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING.
WITH AN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT (EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS)...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND TO THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION (NOT TO MENTION THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION). THE WARM FRONT
WILL ADVECT A MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS NORTHWARD WHICH WILL BRING
SNOW TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST FROM KIPNUK NORTHWARD...WITH REGIONS OF
BLOWING SNOW INLAND AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT AS SEVERE. SNOW ACROSS
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
WARM ABOVE FREEZING LEADING TO A TRANSITION TO RAIN. THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

A SECOND LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY SPIN UP ON THURSDAY
AS IT QUICKLY PUSHES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXTREMELY POOR IN HANDLING THE EXACT TRACK OF
THIS LOW ON FRIDAY IN WHETHER IT PUSHES INTO THE BERING SEA OR
REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE TRACK PLAYS AN
IMPORTANT ROLE ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL STAY JUST
SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO
SCREAM THROUGH THE GAPS ALONG THE PENINSULA. WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE 75 MPH RANGE...WHICH MEANS THAT HIGH WIND
WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA FROM COLD BAY
EAST UP THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. AS THIS FRONT SHIFTS
ACROSS BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS COMING THROUGH LAKE CLARK PASS ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY PUSH ALL THE WAY
INTO THE DELTA WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A STORM FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVIDENT FROM MULTIPLE SATELLITE IMAGES
AS WELL AS MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY TURN TO ALL
RAIN AS A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE ONLY
LOCATION TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL WRAP
AROUND THIS LOW. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING ON THE
WEST/NORTHWEST SECTORS OF THE LOW. THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS
WILL PASS JUST TO THE EAST OF SHEMYA TOMORROW MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY PUSH OVER ADAK AND ATKA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
MERGE WITH ANOTHER STORM FORCE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN (MIXED WITH SNOW OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA) IN THE FORECAST AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS AFTER THE MERGER WILL BE SEEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG LOW WHICH WILL BE OUT NEAR THE TIP OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA FRIDAY EVENING WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY EVENING WILL LIFT NORTH AND INLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER SEVERAL ADDITIONAL TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL SWING ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WITH MINIMAL BREAKS.
FURTHER INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH INCREASED COVERAGE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE WILL SPIN UP INTO A CLOSED
LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THEN TRACK EAST ALONG 50N
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SYSTEM WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
SURFACE LOW ROTATING UP INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS WILL TRACK INTO THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TRIPLE
POINTS AND FRONTAL WAVES DEVELOPING INTO CLOSED LOWS THAT SWING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THEN SPIN UP
ADDITIONAL SURFACE LOWS WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY ROTATE INTO THE GULF.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...155
         HIGH WIND WARNING...161 181
         HIGH WIND WATCH...187.
MARINE...GALES...119 120 125 136-139 141 170 172
         STORMS...130-132 150 155 160 165 173-178 180 185
         HVY FRZG SPRY...181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1056 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 AM     BLIZZARD         NIGHTMUTE               60.45N 164.80W
12/24/2015                                      AK   PUBLIC

            FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW
            HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1/8 MILE.

&&

JPW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
102 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 PM     BLIZZARD         HOOPER BAY              61.54N 166.10W
12/24/2015                                      AK   AWOS

            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PAST 3 HOURS
            REPORTED.

&&

JPW