Gale Warning 852, NWS Anchorage, AK

090 
FZAK62 PAFC 251238
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
338 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-260245-
338 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 967 MB LOW AT 53N 173W DISSIPATES LATE FRI MORNING. A 957 MB LOW
NEAR 54N 163W MOVES TO 56N 165W FRI NIGHT AT 957 MB THEN SHIFTS
TO 57N 156W AS A 983 MB LOW SUN MORNING THEN DISSIPATES. A 984 MB
LOW FORMS AT 48N 174E SAT MORNING MOVES TO 51N 171W AS AN ELONGATED
973 MB LOW BY SUN MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WRAPS BACK INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC.

$$

PKZ411-260245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
338 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 26 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 58N.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 22 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 TO 12 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 26 FT.

$$

PKZ412-260245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
338 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE TO NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE TO NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-260245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
338 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 29 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING NE UP TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT DIMINISHING TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ414-260245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
338 AM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 TO 50 KT. W OF 168W...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT.
SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. W OF 168W...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13
TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

539 
FZAK62 PAFC 260013
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-261445-
313 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 954 MB LOW NEAR 56N 165W WEAKENS TO 974 MB SAT AFTERNOON NEAR
56N 162W AND THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA SAT NIGHT.
A 983 MB LOW FORMS EARLY SAT MORNING NEAR 48N 174E AND INTENSIFIES
TO 968 MB SAT NIGHT NEAR 51N 176W. THIS LOW THEN WEAKENS TO 975 MB
SUN AFTERNOON NEAR 51N 167W.

$$

PKZ411-261445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
313 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING N 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ412-261445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
313 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-261445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
313 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 26 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING N UP TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-261445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
313 PM AKST FRI DEC 25 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

920 
FZAK62 PAFC 261226
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
326 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-270245-
326 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 963 MB LOW AT 57N 165W MOVES TO 58N 161W AS A 977MB LOW SAT
NIGHT AND DISSIPATES SUN MORNING IN BRISTOL BAY. A 981 MB LOW
NEAR 47N 175E MOVES TO 52N 179W SAT NIGHT AS A 968 MB LOW THEN
SHIFTS TO 51N 165W AS A 974 MB LOW MON MORNING. A 974 MB LOW AT
50N 168E SUN MORNING COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW AND MOVES TO 51N
178W AS A 961 MB LOW BY MON MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-270245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
326 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 56N.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-270245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
326 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-270245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
326 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE UP TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-270245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
326 AM AKST SAT DEC 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
S OF 56N...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE TO NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
550 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS TRANSITIONING TO A MUCH MORE
ACTIVE REGIME THIS MORNING...WITH A POWERFUL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC DRIVING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
STRONG STORM FORCE LOW (IN THE UPPER 950 HPA RANGE) NORTHEAST OF
SHEMYA. WATER VAPOR AND IR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE PLUME
OF EXTENSIVE HIGH CIRRUS AND THE ASSOCIATED COMMA CLOUD MOVING
INTO THE EASTERN BERING AND SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A VERY LARGE AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH ADVECTS WARM AND MOIST SUBTROPICAL AIR NORTHWARD. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE WARM FRONT IS TRAVELING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST AND
HAS ALREADY CLEARED THE ENTIRE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AND PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. WITH AN ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE...STRONG INVERSIONS AND OFFSHORE FLOW ARE KEEPING INLAND
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA RATHER COLD AT THE SURFACE. THIS
WILL KEEP LOCATIONS VULNERABLE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW EVEN AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TODAY...WHICH HAS ALREADY COMMENCED IN
EARNEST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COAST. OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...A MORE
MUNDANE PATTERN IS IN PLACE AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC...RESULTING IN A MODERATE OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG
THE COAST. HOWEVER...INLAND...WINDS ARE LARGELY WEAK AND
SLACK...WITH EXTENSIVE REGIONS OF LOW STRATUS AND SOME PATCHY FOG
REMAINING IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. EVENTUALLY WITH TIME...A
SECONDARY DEEP LOW WILL FORM AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC...THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST BERING SEA
FRIDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE SUITE OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THEY ARE
ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY
MAX STORM FORCE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY...BUT DIFFER WITH SMALLER BUT IMPORTANT DETAILS. THERE
REMAINS TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE
FAVORING A FARTHER NORTH TRACK EAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WHILE
THE GFS AND NAM ARE FARTHER SOUTH...MUCH CLOSER TO UNALASKA AND
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL IMPACT WHERE THE
STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS ARE LOCATED AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND FAR WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS FORECAST FAVORED A POSITION IN BETWEEN THE
DISPARATE SOLUTIONS...WHICH BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
CORE OF WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA AND NORTH INTO
BRISTOL BAY. OVER SOUTHCENTRAL...THE DISPARITIES ARE SMALLER...AND
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF...WHICH WILL BRING
TYPICAL SOUTHEAST GAP WINDS AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TO PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN KENAI AND INTO TURNAGAIN ARM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH
TONIGHT. A WEAK EMBEDDED WARM FRONT THAT IS OVER KODIAK THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THOSE AREAS. A STRONG FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A
DEEP ALEUTIAN LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND KODIAK
ISLAND LATE TONIGHT THEN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A SURGE OF WARM AIR NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL FALL IN COASTAL AREAS...WITH THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA
TAKING THE BRUNT OF IT DUE TO THE SOUTHEASTERLY UP-SLOPE FLOW AT
LOW LEVELS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW...AND LIKELY STAY
ALL SNOW FOR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN KENAI...BUT MIX WITH
OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR COASTAL AREAS. DOWN-SLOPING WILL ALLOW VERY
LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO FALL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A POTENT WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO THE STRONG LOW IN THE WESTERN
BERING SEA WILL PUSH INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING.
WITH AN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT (EAST TO NORTHEAST
WINDS)...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RESPOND TO THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION (NOT TO MENTION THE FRONTAL OCCLUSION). THE WARM FRONT
WILL ADVECT A MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS NORTHWARD WHICH WILL BRING
SNOW TO MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST FROM KIPNUK NORTHWARD...WITH REGIONS OF
BLOWING SNOW INLAND AS WELL...ALTHOUGH NOT AS SEVERE. SNOW ACROSS
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
WARM ABOVE FREEZING LEADING TO A TRANSITION TO RAIN. THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST AREAS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES IN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

A SECOND LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL RAPIDLY SPIN UP ON THURSDAY
AS IT QUICKLY PUSHES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXTREMELY POOR IN HANDLING THE EXACT TRACK OF
THIS LOW ON FRIDAY IN WHETHER IT PUSHES INTO THE BERING SEA OR
REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE TRACK PLAYS AN
IMPORTANT ROLE ON HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE LOW WILL STAY JUST
SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO
SCREAM THROUGH THE GAPS ALONG THE PENINSULA. WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE 75 MPH RANGE...WHICH MEANS THAT HIGH WIND
WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY FOR THE ALASKA PENINSULA FROM COLD BAY
EAST UP THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. AS THIS FRONT SHIFTS
ACROSS BRISTOL BAY FRIDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS COMING THROUGH LAKE CLARK PASS ALONG THE
ALASKA RANGE. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY PUSH ALL THE WAY
INTO THE DELTA WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A STORM FORCE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN BERING
SEA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS EVIDENT FROM MULTIPLE SATELLITE IMAGES
AS WELL AS MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY TURN TO ALL
RAIN AS A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE ONLY
LOCATION TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE COLDER ARCTIC AIR WILL WRAP
AROUND THIS LOW. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER EASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING ON THE
WEST/NORTHWEST SECTORS OF THE LOW. THE STRONGEST CORE OF WINDS
WILL PASS JUST TO THE EAST OF SHEMYA TOMORROW MORNING AND
EVENTUALLY PUSH OVER ADAK AND ATKA FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL
MERGE WITH ANOTHER STORM FORCE LOW MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP RAIN (MIXED WITH SNOW OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA) IN THE FORECAST AND THE STRONGEST
WINDS AFTER THE MERGER WILL BE SEEN OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE STRONG LOW WHICH WILL BE OUT NEAR THE TIP OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA FRIDAY EVENING WILL TRACK SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM WHICH WILL BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA AND
NORTHERN GULF FRIDAY EVENING WILL LIFT NORTH AND INLAND SATURDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER SEVERAL ADDITIONAL TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SURFACE LOW WILL SWING ONSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST WITH MINIMAL BREAKS.
FURTHER INLAND PRECIPITATION WILL TAKE THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WITH INCREASED COVERAGE ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY. A DEVELOPING FRONTAL WAVE WILL SPIN UP INTO A CLOSED
LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THEN TRACK EAST ALONG 50N
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SYSTEM WILL
REACH THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL GULF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
SURFACE LOW ROTATING UP INTO THE GULF ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL
SYSTEMS WILL TRACK INTO THE ALEUTIANS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH TRIPLE
POINTS AND FRONTAL WAVES DEVELOPING INTO CLOSED LOWS THAT SWING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THEN SPIN UP
ADDITIONAL SURFACE LOWS WHICH SUBSEQUENTLY ROTATE INTO THE GULF.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING...155
         HIGH WIND WARNING...161 181
         HIGH WIND WATCH...187.
MARINE...GALES...119 120 125 136-139 141 170 172
         STORMS...130-132 150 155 160 165 173-178 180 185
         HVY FRZG SPRY...181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...JR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1056 AM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 AM     BLIZZARD         NIGHTMUTE               60.45N 164.80W
12/24/2015                                      AK   PUBLIC

            FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW
            HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1/8 MILE.

&&

JPW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
102 PM AKST THU DEC 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0101 PM     BLIZZARD         HOOPER BAY              61.54N 166.10W
12/24/2015                                      AK   AWOS

            BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE PAST 3 HOURS
            REPORTED.

&&

JPW