Alert archive / Alaska / Winter Storm Warnings in 2015
Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this winter storm warning at Nov 23, 2015, 4:15 PM AKST. It was in force for 37 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 23, 2015, 4:15 PM AKST (01:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 25, 2015, 5:07 AM AKST
- In force
- 37 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
495 WWAK41 PAFC 240115 WSWAER URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 415 PM AKST MON NOV 23 2015 ...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY... .A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES WARM...RAIN WILL MIX IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAR NORTH SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AKZ145-241430- /O.UPG.PAFC.WW.Y.0026.000000T0000Z-151125T0100Z/ /O.NEW.PAFC.WS.W.0004.151124T0115Z-151125T0100Z/ SUSITNA VALLEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL 415 PM AKST MON NOV 23 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST TUESDAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * SNOW...4 TO 11 INCHES FROM TALKEETNA SOUTH. 20 TO 32 INCHES TOWARDS THE PARK. * TIMING...SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BEGINNING SOUTH OF WILLOW AND PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON TALKEETNA WILL SEE THE SWITCH TO ALL RAIN WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF TALKEETNA REMAINING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED IN HEAVY SNOWFALL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$
4 follow-up statements
180 WWAK41 PAFC 241400 WSWAER URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 500 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015 ...MORE SNOW ON THE WAY FOR THE SUSITNA VALLEY... .A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL TO THE SUSITNA VALLEY. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS SNOW THROUGHOUT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THEN INCREASE IN INTENSITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES WARM...RAIN WILL MIX IN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS IN HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAR NORTH SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AKZ145-250100- /O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-151125T0100Z/ SUSITNA VALLEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL 500 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS FOR HEAVY SNOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON... * SNOW...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 15 INCHES NORTH OF TALKEETNA...GREATEST AMOUNTS NEAR THE PARK. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM TALKEETNA SOUTH. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 11 INCHES FROM TALKEETNA SOUTH. 20 TO 32 INCHES TOWARDS THE PARK. * TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO RAIN SOUTH OF WILLOW THIS MORNING AND PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. BY THIS AFTERNOON TALKEETNA WILL SEE THE SWITCH TO ALL RAIN WITH LOCATIONS NORTH OF TALKEETNA REMAINING SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED IN HEAVY SNOWFALL. ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK SOUTH OF TALKEETNA IN THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW BEGINS TO TURN TO RAIN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$ AKZ111-242200- /O.NEW.PAFC.ZR.Y.0017.151124T1400Z-151124T2200Z/ MATANUSKA VALLEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON 500 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM AKST THIS AFTERNOON. * LOCATION...THE MATANUSKA VALLEY * ICE ACCUMULATION...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE GLENN HIGHWAY TOWARDS CHICKALOON. * TIMING...AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WHEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING. * IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN...ON TOP OF ALREADY SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS...WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$
870 WWAK41 PAFC 242121 WSWAER URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 1221 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015 ...MIXED BAG OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA... .COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. WARM AIR IS SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND SOUTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY...RESULTING IN A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SNOW...AND FREEZING RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AKZ145-251030- /O.EXT.PAFC.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-151125T1400Z/ SUSITNA VALLEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL 1221 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATION...SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF TALKEETNA...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SNOW...AND FREEZING RAIN FROM TALKEETNA SOUTHWARD. * SNOW...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES NORTH OF TALKEETNA AND 1 TO 4 INCHES FROM TALKEETNA SOUTHWARD. * FREEZING RAIN...ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH FROM TALKEETNA SOUTHWARD. * TIMING...CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO LIGHTEN UP WEDNESDAY MORNING AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOWER SUSITNA VALLEY. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT IN SNOWY AND ICY CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED IN HEAVY SNOWFALL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$ AKZ111-251030- /O.EXT.PAFC.ZR.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-151125T1400Z/ MATANUSKA VALLEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON 1221 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY FROM WASILLA WEST... * LOCATION...IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY FROM WASILLA WEST * ICE ACCUMULATION...UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. * TIMING...PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...FREEZING RAIN...ON TOP OF ALREADY SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS...WILL MAKE DRIVING CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS. SLOW DOWN AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$
478 WWAK41 PAFC 250112 WSWAER URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 412 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015 AKZ111-250215- /O.CAN.PAFC.ZR.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-151125T1400Z/ MATANUSKA VALLEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON 412 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. $$ AKZ145-251400- /O.CON.PAFC.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-151125T1400Z/ SUSITNA VALLEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL 412 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST WEDNESDAY... * LOCATION...SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF TALKEETNA...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN FROM TALKEETNA SOUTHWARD. * SNOW...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 10 INCHES NORTH OF TALKEETNA. * FREEZING RAIN...ICE ACCUMULATION UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH FROM TALKEETNA SOUTHWARD. * TIMING...CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO LIGHTEN UP WEDNESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT IN SNOWY AND ICY CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED IN HEAVY SNOWFALL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL... KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. && $$
581 WWAK41 PAFC 251407 WSWAER URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 507 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2015 AKZ145-260315- /O.CAN.PAFC.WS.W.0004.000000T0000Z-151125T1400Z/ /O.NEW.PAFC.WW.Y.0027.151125T1407Z-151126T1400Z/ SUSITNA VALLEY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL 507 AM AKST WED NOV 25 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST THURSDAY FOR NORTH OF TALKEETNA... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM AKST THURSDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * LOCATION...SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF TALKEETNA TODAY...WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN FROM TALKEETNA SOUTH. PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW IN THE EVENING HOURS. * SNOW...ACCUMULATION OF 10 TO 20 INCHES NORTH OF TALKEETNA. GREATEST AMOUNTS TOWARDS THE PARK. ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE FROM TALKEETNA SOUTH. * FREEZING RAIN...ICE ACCUMULATION OF A TRACE IS POSSIBLE FROM TALKEETNA SOUTH. * TIMING...SNOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF TALKEETNA TODAY...AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY TOWARDS THE EVENING. FROM TALKEETNA SOUTH...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN OVER TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING. * IMPACTS...TRAVEL MAY BE DIFFICULT IN SNOWY AND ICY CONDITIONS. VISIBILITIES WILL BE LIMITED IN HEAVY SNOWFALL. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this winter storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm warning went out at Nov 23, 5:51 AM AKST, 10 hours 24 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 23, 5:51 AM AKST, 10 hours 24 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
551 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2015
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A POWERFUL SYSTEM OVER THE BERING IS CONTINUING ITS TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH ITS FRONT DRAPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE IS
A STRONG WARM PUSH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT IS CHANGING
OVER THE SNOW TO RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER INLAND. AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND RIDGING SITS WHICH HAS
CLEARED OUT MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BUT HAS TRAPPED SOME
STRATUS DECKS UNDER THE INVERSION.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE SEVERAL PROBLEM AREAS WITH THE MODELS MOVING OUT INTO
THE MID TERM. THE FIRST IS WITH THE FRONT MOVING INLAND OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHCENTRAL
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM AIR WILL PUSH
IN AND HOW FAST IT WILL DO SO. THE GEM AND GFS ARE THE WARMEST
WITH THE NAM STAYING COLDER. THESE DIFFERENCES LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
WHEN EXACTLY THE TRANSITION WILL HAPPEN FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AREAS.
THE OTHER DISAGREEMENTS RELATE TO TWO DIFFERENT APPROACHING LOWS.
ONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY WITH THE NAM
AND GFS FAST THAN THE GEM AND EC. THE OTHER IS MOVING TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTH LATER ON TUESDAY WITH THE GEM
LAGGING BEHIND THE OTHERS. FOR BOTH LOWS THE EC HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE IN THE MID TERM.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A POTENT FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS BRISTOL
BAY WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING MANY LOCATIONS TO ABOVE FREEZING
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SUPPLY. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND WESTERN KENAI DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LOCAL GAPS.
MEANWHILE...SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SUSITNA VALLEY
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE PARK.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS REMAINS THE
TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
TALKEETNA...AND THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TRANSITION. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SNOW
IN TALKEETNA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY
NOON. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW ALL
THE WAY TO CANTWELL BY TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL BEFORE TUESDAY EVENING...SNOW
TOTALS WOULD ONLY BE REDUCE BY A FEW INCHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING
BEFORE PRECIPITATION MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER TO RAIN AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WITH THE
FRONT INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL INITIALLY BE SNOW OVER INLAND
AREAS...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HELP TO FACILITATE A TRANSITION TO RAIN
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THESE
ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ALASKA RANGE...WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING A MORE SHOWERY REGIME
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE POWERFUL LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ALONG A CORRIDOR SPANNING FROM NEAR ADAK TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
IN UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW CENTER...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SWATH OF STORM FORCE WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD...WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW
SUPPORTING A VERY SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LOW APPROACHING THE AKPEN/KODIAK ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING GAP WINDS AND ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW
FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION AS RAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH
SNOW MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON
THE OTHER HAND WILL LARGELY BE SPARED FROM THE STRONGEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION...SO WIDESPREAD SNOW IS MUCH MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AS TO WHETHER THIS
SNOWFALL WILL REACH IN TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN
EAST OF BETHEL.
AT THIS SAME TIME A GALE FORCE (OR POTENTIALLY STORM FORCE) LOW
WILL ENTER THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY ABSORBING THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE AKPEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES THE ALEUTIANS.
IN THE EAST EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN AS
THE FIRST LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN END OF SHELIKOF STRAIT INTO
THE WEEKEND. AS THE WARM AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL LOW
MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHERLY FLOW...RAIN WILL AFFECT
THE COAST AND INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. IN THE
WEST EXPECT GALES NEAR THE AKPEN DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THEN
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AS THE STRONG EX-TYPHOON MOVES ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND THE BERING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND LOW IN ITS WAKE.
CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL BE A WIND AND RAIN
MAKER OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS THE GULF COAST.
WHETHER PRECIPITATION REMAINS LIQUID OVER INTERIOR ZONES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 145
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY 155
HIGH SURF ADVISORY 161.
MARINE...STORM 173 175 176 177 178 179 180 181.
GALE 130 131 132 138 139 140 150 155 160 165
170 172 174 185.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DEK/DSThe office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 23, 3:11 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 72 hr | |
| Nov 23, 3:11 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Nov 23, 3:11 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 13 hr | |
| Nov 23, 3:21 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 24 hr | |
| Nov 24, 3:29 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 3 days | |
| Nov 24, 3:41 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 4 days | |
| Nov 24, 3:41 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 11 hr | |
| Nov 24, 3:41 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Nov 24, 3:41 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Nov 24, 3:54 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 48 hr | |
| Nov 24, 3:54 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 60 hr | |
| Nov 24, 5:00 AM AKST | Freezing Rain Advisory | AFC | 11 hr |
Nearby
Winter Storm Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every winter storm warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.