Small Craft Advisory 929, NWS Anchorage, AK

286 
FZAK51 PAFC 241254
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250200-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT NEAR THE WESTERN GULF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF WED MORNING...THEN MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-250200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 11
FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ120-250200-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-250200-
RESURRECTION BAY-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-250200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE AND EAST...SE WIND 45
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE AND EAST...SE
WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-250200-
PORT VALDEZ-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-250200-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-250200-
VALDEZ ARM-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-250200-
PASSAGE CANAL-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-250200-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-250200-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-250200-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ136-250200-
CHINIAK BAY-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-250200-
MARMOT BAY-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-250200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-250200-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-250200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-250200-
KACHEMAK BAY-
354 AM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT NEAR OUTER BAY. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

586 
FZAK51 PAFC 250040
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251400-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT NEAR THE WESTERN GULF WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT. A 992 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTH OF
CHIRIKOF ISLAND WED MORNING MOVES TO NEAR AUGUSTINE ISLAND AT 991
MB THU MORNING...THEN MOVES INLAND AND DISSIPATES.

$$

PKZ119-251400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-251400-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-251400-
RESURRECTION BAY-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-251400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-251400-
PORT VALDEZ-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-251400-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-251400-
VALDEZ ARM-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-251400-
PASSAGE CANAL-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-251400-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-251400-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-251400-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
23 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ136-251400-
CHINIAK BAY-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-251400-
MARMOT BAY-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ138-251400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-251400-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-251400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-251400-
KACHEMAK BAY-
340 PM AKST TUE NOV 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
551 AM AKST MON NOV 23 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A POWERFUL SYSTEM OVER THE BERING IS CONTINUING ITS TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH ITS FRONT DRAPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THERE IS
A STRONG WARM PUSH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT IS CHANGING
OVER THE SNOW TO RAIN AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER INLAND. AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND RIDGING SITS WHICH HAS
CLEARED OUT MUCH OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER BUT HAS TRAPPED SOME
STRATUS DECKS UNDER THE INVERSION.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE SEVERAL PROBLEM AREAS WITH THE MODELS MOVING OUT INTO
THE MID TERM. THE FIRST IS WITH THE FRONT MOVING INLAND OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. AS IT CONTINUES ITS TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHCENTRAL
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM AIR WILL PUSH
IN AND HOW FAST IT WILL DO SO. THE GEM AND GFS ARE THE WARMEST
WITH THE NAM STAYING COLDER. THESE DIFFERENCES LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
WHEN EXACTLY THE TRANSITION WILL HAPPEN FOR SOUTHCENTRAL AREAS.
THE OTHER DISAGREEMENTS RELATE TO TWO DIFFERENT APPROACHING LOWS.
ONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TUESDAY WITH THE NAM
AND GFS FAST THAN THE GEM AND EC. THE OTHER IS MOVING TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA FROM THE SOUTH LATER ON TUESDAY WITH THE GEM
LAGGING BEHIND THE OTHERS. FOR BOTH LOWS THE EC HAS BEEN MORE
CONSISTENT AND IS THE MODEL OF CHOICE IN THE MID TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A POTENT FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS BRISTOL
BAY WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING MANY LOCATIONS TO ABOVE FREEZING
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SUPPLY. RAIN AND SNOW WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...THE MATANUSKA VALLEY AND WESTERN KENAI DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING...AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LOCAL GAPS.
MEANWHILE...SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SUSITNA VALLEY
BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RISE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE PARK.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS REMAINS THE
TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
TALKEETNA...AND THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS TRANSITION. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO MIX IN WITH SNOW
IN TALKEETNA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...AND CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY
NOON. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT RAIN COULD MIX WITH SNOW ALL
THE WAY TO CANTWELL BY TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...AS THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL BEFORE TUESDAY EVENING...SNOW
TOTALS WOULD ONLY BE REDUCE BY A FEW INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS MORNING
BEFORE PRECIPITATION MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER TO RAIN AS THE
FRONT PUSHES INLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WITH THE
FRONT INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL INITIALLY BE SNOW OVER INLAND
AREAS...ALLOWING FOR A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION BEFORE
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS HELP TO FACILITATE A TRANSITION TO RAIN
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS BY THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THESE
ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ALASKA RANGE...WITH ONSHORE FLOW KEEPING A MORE SHOWERY REGIME
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE
BERING SEA THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE POWERFUL LOW TRACKS NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ALONG A CORRIDOR SPANNING FROM NEAR ADAK TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
IN UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW CENTER...WITH GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER SWATH OF STORM FORCE WINDS WILL IMPACT THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS IN COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD...WITH STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW
SUPPORTING A VERY SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE LOW APPROACHING THE AKPEN/KODIAK ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING GAP WINDS AND ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN/SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS LOW
FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND PRECIPITATION AS RAIN IN MOST AREAS WITH
SNOW MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN. THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON
THE OTHER HAND WILL LARGELY BE SPARED FROM THE STRONGEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION...SO WIDESPREAD SNOW IS MUCH MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IN
WESTERN BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL PERSIST. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE AS TO WHETHER THIS
SNOWFALL WILL REACH IN TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT ANY SNOWFALL SHOULD REMAIN
EAST OF BETHEL.

AT THIS SAME TIME A GALE FORCE (OR POTENTIALLY STORM FORCE) LOW
WILL ENTER THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD GALE FORCE WINDS INTO THE EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY...EVENTUALLY ABSORBING THE LOW
MOVING INTO THE AKPEN ON WEDNESDAY AS IT CROSSES THE ALEUTIANS.

IN THE EAST EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN AS
THE FIRST LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN END OF SHELIKOF STRAIT INTO
THE WEEKEND. AS THE WARM AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL LOW
MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SOUTHERLY FLOW...RAIN WILL AFFECT
THE COAST AND INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH A MIX OF RAIN
AND SNOW WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. IN THE
WEST EXPECT GALES NEAR THE AKPEN DURING THE WEEKEND...AND THEN
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AS THE STRONG EX-TYPHOON MOVES ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND THE BERING...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND LOW IN ITS WAKE.

CONFIDENCE IS DECENT THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL BE A WIND AND RAIN
MAKER OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS AS WELL AS THE GULF COAST.
WHETHER PRECIPITATION REMAINS LIQUID OVER INTERIOR ZONES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 145
         COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY 155
         HIGH SURF ADVISORY 161.
MARINE...STORM 173 175 176 177 178 179 180 181.
         GALE 130 131 132 138 139 140 150 155 160 165
              170 172 174 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DEK/DS