Wind Chill Advisory 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

042 
WWAK42 PAFC 080053
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
353 PM AKST SAT FEB 7 2015

AKZ155-081500-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WC.Y.0006.150208T0300Z-150209T0300Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
353 PM AKST SAT FEB 7 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6
PM AKST SUNDAY...

* WIND...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALONG THE
  COAST.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...35 BELOW TO 45 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
  LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WARM ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AS WINDS
  DIMINISH.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

AKZ152-081500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0006.150208T0300Z-150209T0300Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE
353 PM AKST SAT FEB 7 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING
TO 6 PM AKST SUNDAY...

* WIND...NORTH 10 TO 25 MPH.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...40 BELOW TO 50 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
  LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WARM ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AS
  WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

AKZ161-081500-
/O.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0006.150208T0900Z-150209T0300Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
353 PM AKST SAT FEB 7 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
6 PM AKST SUNDAY...

* WIND...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG THE
  WESTERN CAPES AND ALASKA PENINSULA.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...35 BELOW TO 45 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 45 BELOW ZERO BY MIDNIGHT
  TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WARM
  ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

327 
WWAK42 PAFC 081358
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2015


AKZ152-082100-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150208T2100Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE
458 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

* WIND...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...25 BELOW TO 40 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...WIND CHILLS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING...THEN
  WARM ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

AKZ161-082100-
/O.EXT.PAFC.WC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150208T2100Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
458 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON AKST TODAY...

* WIND...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...20 BELOW TO 40 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...WIND CHILLS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING...THEN WARM
  ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AS WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

AKZ155-090300-
/O.CON.PAFC.WC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150209T0300Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
458 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AKST THIS
EVENING...

* WIND...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH ALONG THE
  COAST.

* WIND CHILL VALUES...25 BELOW TO 40 BELOW ZERO.

* TIMING...WIND CHILLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
  WARM ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS AS WINDS DIMINISH.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED RISK OF HYPOTHERMIA AND FROSTBITE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MEANS THAT VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE LOW WIND CHILLS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
FROSTBITE AND LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA IF PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT TAKEN.

&&

$$

561 
WWAK42 PAFC 082053
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1153 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2015


AKZ155-082200-
/O.CAN.PAFC.WC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150209T0300Z/
KUSKOKWIM DELTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHEL...HOOPER BAY...NUNIVAK ISLAND
1153 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY. 


$$

AKZ152-082200-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150208T2100Z/
LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANIAK...SLEETMUTE
1153 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED.

$$

AKZ161-082200-
/O.EXP.PAFC.WC.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-150208T2100Z/
BRISTOL BAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...KING SALMON...DILLINGHAM...NAKNEK...
PILOT POINT
1153 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2015

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
532 AM AKST SAT FEB 7 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA WHILE OFF TO THE EAST
LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THESE TWO IS PRODUCING A STRONG PUSH OF NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE...PUSHING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE IS A STRONG PV ANOMALY THAT IS MAKING
ITS WAY TO THE SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONALLY COLDER AIR IS BEING BROUGHT
INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AT ALL LEVELS FROM THE
NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
SYNOPTICALLY THE MODELS ARE DOING FAIRLY WELL WITH THE MAIN
FEATURES BUT PROBLEMS ARISE WITH THE HANDLING OF SOME OF THE
SMALLER FEATURES. THE MAIN ONE TO NOTE IS A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG
THE COASTLINE OF THE NORTHERN GULF. ALL MODELS ARE KEYING IN ON
THE MAIN LOW FURTHER SOUTH...BUT THEY ARE ALL ALSO MISSING THE
SMALLER LOW. THIS COMES INTO PLAY AS THE MAIN LOW TRACKS TOWARDS
KODIAK WITH THE MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOMING PROBLEMATIC BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
EVEN THOUGH MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
WEST...HIGH PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND COLD AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTH ARE KEEPING WINDS STRONG...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GAPS.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW IS ALSO DRY WHICH WILL HELP IN KEEPING
MORE CLEAR SKIES FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THIS BEING ESPECIALLY
TRUE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE GULF COAST.

THE PROBLEM IN THE GULF IS THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF THAT WILL
MOVE TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE MODELS DISAGREEING ON LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO KODIAK IS LOWERED. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE PART OF THE FORECAST IS THAT THERE WILL BE STRONG NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE EASTERN COAST. THERE
IS ALSO CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE SNOW...BUT WHERE THE
HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS AND HOW MUCH FALLS ARE MORE CHALLENGING. THERE
IS A LOT OF DIFFERENCE BASED ON THE VARIOUS LOW TRACKS AND
INTENSITIES. HOWEVER...WITH STRONGER WINDS AND SOME ASSURANCE THAT
AT LEAST SOME SNOW WILL FALL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY)...
NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR THIS
MORNING AS A COLDER AIR MASS FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
WIND CHILLS HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BETWEEN 20 TO 40 BELOW ZERO IN
THE GUSTIEST LOCATIONS. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WINDS BEGIN TO TAPER
DOWN AND WIND CHILLS SHOULD WARM ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. IF THIS OCCURS...THE
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY)...
A COLD DENSE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN BERING PROGRESSES TO THE
CENTRAL BERING TODAY BRINGING GUSTY GALES ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING AND ALASKA PENINSULA. STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS PICK UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY. SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW FROM TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...ONE IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BIG PICTURE WISE
SUPPORTING THE IDEA OF A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY ON MONDAY AS A WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES IN THE NORTHERN GULF...RELAXING THE
OFFSHORE COASTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INLAND
AND COLD DENSE INTERIOR AIR HOWEVER WILL KEEP GUSTY DOWNSLOPE AND
GAP WINDS GOING...THOUGH SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AND BECOMING
PROGRESSIVELY SHALLOWER THROUGH MIDWEEK.

A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA ON
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING CLOSED LOW WELL SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIANS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS IT SHIFTS EAST
OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND WESTERN ALASKA WHERE IT WILL PERSIST AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING A
SERIES OF INCREASINGLY WARM FRONTAL SYSTEMS UP INTO THE GULF AND
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. INITIALLY THE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WILL HAVE A HARD TIME MAKING IT PAST THE COAST AS THEY
RUN INTO THE COLD DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER EACH ONE WILL MAKE IT
A BIT FURTHER INLAND AND PROGRESSIVELY ERODE THE COLD AIR FROM
THE TOP DOWN. FREEZING RAIN BECOMES A POTENTIAL CONCERN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT NEAR THE GULF COAST AND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD 171
         WIND CHILL ADVISORIES 152 155 161

MARINE...

STORMS 130 138

HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 125 126 127 128 130 138 139 140 141 150
155 165 170 179 185

GALES 119 120 127 128 131 132 136 137 139 150 155 160 165 170 179
180 181

 FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JER/DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
402 AM AKST SAT FEB 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1036 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST WASILLA                 61.58N 149.46W
02/06/2015  M61.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

1056 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ELMENDORF AIR FORCE BAS 61.25N 149.80W
02/06/2015  M58.00 MPH                          AK   ASOS

&&

RSD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
404 AM AKST SAT FEB 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ANCHORAGE               61.22N 149.87W
02/06/2015  M56 MPH                             AK   PUBLIC

            PIECE OF FIBERGLASS PORCH ROOFING RIPPED OFF DURING THE
            NIGHT NEAR KINCAID ELEMENTARY. PANC ASOS MEASURED PEAK
            GUST OF 56 MPH.

&&

RSD