Storm Warning 89, NWS Anchorage, AK

555 
FZAK52 PAFC 192249 CCA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-201145-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 972 MB LOW 210 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT WILL TRACK TO 260 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK AT 977 MB BY TUE MORNING...BEFORE EXITING INTO
THE GULF TUE AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL ELONGATE AND WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY
TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-201145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT IN THE EVENING DIMINISHING TO SE 25 KT.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ155-201145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-201145-
BRISTOL BAY-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-201145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NE 35 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-201145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ171-201145-
UNALASKA BAY-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-201145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-201145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ174-201145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-201145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING N. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-201145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT EARLY BECOMING W 30 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-201145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING W 30 KT PACIFIC SIDE.
S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E 20 KT BERING SIDE. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON PACIFIC
SIDE. NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON BERING
SIDE. SEAS 8 FT BERING SIDE...14 FT PACIFIC SIDE. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-201145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT PACIFIC
SIDE. SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT BERING SIDE.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON PACIFIC
SIDE. E WIND 20 KT BECOMING W BY LATE AFTERNOON BERING SIDE. SEAS
14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-201145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-201145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT NE 20 KT N AND W OF CAPE
NEWENHAM. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-201145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-201145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
249 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
446 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE BERING AND
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA IS DRIVING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING
NORTHWARDS INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW IS BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WHILE A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTAINS MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE AKPEN AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GFS MODEL HAS THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND HAS THE
BEST TIMING FOR ITS PROGRESSION...AND WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL
BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO SOUTHCENTRAL INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS RAIN BEGINS TO CLEAR FROM THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO FORM
THROUGHOUT THE COOK INLET REGION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
VERY WET FROM RECENT RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS. OTHER THAN THE CHANCE
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS...CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WILL BE
GENERALLY QUIETER ON MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT GULF LOW EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN BE THE WEATHER MAKER
(ESPECIALLY FOR GULF COAST COMMUNITIES) INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY
GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF IN ADVANCE/WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH WITH STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY OVER
SHELIKOF STRAIT MON EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN SPREAD TOWARDS
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY TUESDAY.

ONE PIECE OF GOOD NEWS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IN
THE GULF TO KEEP MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL DRY WITH EVEN A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
FROM THE MATANUSKA VALLEY INTO COOK INLET WILL ALSO HELP IN
KEEPING ANY RAIN CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST...AND WILL ALSO FORCE
ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT DOES FORM AROUND COOK INLET TO DISSIPATE BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AN UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST OVER THE KUSKOKWIM BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTH ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TOWARD COASTAL AREAS. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTH...A STRONG GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION ALONG WITH
RAIN THREATS TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST EXTENDING INTO INTERIOR
BRISTOL BAY. WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY LOW MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG WITH WEAKENING NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A
POSSIBLE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF
PORT HEIDEN TUESDAY AS THE PRIMARY LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. MEANWHILE...A SHARPLY-DEFINED COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AND EXTENDS TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. STRONG WEST
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AND RAIN WILL IMPACT THESE AREAS ALONG
THIS FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARM AIR
TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND THEN THE MODELS BECOME MORE
CHAOTIC. SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BUT THERE IS DISCREPANCY ON WHERE THE LOW WILL
SETUP OR IF AND WHERE A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP RESULTING IN
LOWER CONFIDENCE. BECAUSE OF THE VARIATION IN DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS A COMBINATION OF ENSEMBLES WAS USED...PRIMARILY THE EC
ENSEMBLE AND THE NAEFS. THIS NEW SOLUTION BRINGS AN ELONGATED LOW
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN TRACKS IT
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GULF SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THE MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTH GULF
COAST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 138. GALES 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 150 155 160
165 351 352.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...DK