Storm Warning 88, NWS Anchorage, AK

437 
FZAK51 PAFC 191558
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-200315-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF MON MORNING...THEN
TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE MON AND WEAKEN IN PLACE TUE.
A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN TO 970 MB 300 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SITKINAK MON AFTERNOON AND THEN TRACK TO 320 NM EAST OF SITKINAK
AT 982 MB EARLY WED.

$$

PKZ119-200315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-200315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-200315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. AREAS OF FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-200315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-200315-
PORT VALDEZ-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-200315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-200315-
VALDEZ ARM-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-200315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-200315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-200315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

UPDATE

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-200315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-200315-
CHINIAK BAY-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-200315-
MARMOT BAY-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-200315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

UPDATE

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-200315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-200315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-200315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
758 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

292 
FZAK51 PAFC 192336
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...RESENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201245-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL TRACK INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN IN PLACE TUE MORNING. A
972 MB LOW 330 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK WILL TRACK TO 280 NM SOUTH
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 981 MB BY TUE NIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO 988 MB
AS IT TRACKS TO 130 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAKUTAT BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-201245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ120-201245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ121-201245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-201245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-201245-
PORT VALDEZ-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-201245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-201245-
VALDEZ ARM-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-201245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-201245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-201245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-201245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO 25
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-201245-
CHINIAK BAY-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT...THEN BECOMING SE 20 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-201245-
MARMOT BAY-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING 40 KT...THEN DIMINISHING TO 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-201245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-201245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-201245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-201245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
336 PM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
446 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT COVERS THE ENTIRE BERING AND
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA IS DRIVING THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO LINGER JUST OFFSHORE OF
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING
NORTHWARDS INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. MEANWHILE...A DEVELOPING
UPPER LOW IS LOCATED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND AND SOUTH CENTRAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE
SURFACE...A WEAKENING LOW IS BRINGING OCCASIONAL SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WHILE A LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF HAS BEEN
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTAINS MOVING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS THE AKPEN AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHCENTRAL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE GFS MODEL HAS THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION AND HAS THE
BEST TIMING FOR ITS PROGRESSION...AND WAS THE MODEL OF CHOICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NORTHWARD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL
BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO SOUTHCENTRAL INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS RAIN BEGINS TO CLEAR FROM THE SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT...AREAS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE LIKELY TO FORM
THROUGHOUT THE COOK INLET REGION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
VERY WET FROM RECENT RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS. OTHER THAN THE CHANCE
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS...CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA WILL BE
GENERALLY QUIETER ON MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT GULF LOW EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN BE THE WEATHER MAKER
(ESPECIALLY FOR GULF COAST COMMUNITIES) INTO TUESDAY. GENERALLY
GALES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF IN ADVANCE/WITH THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTH WITH STORM FORCE WINDS LIKELY OVER
SHELIKOF STRAIT MON EVENING. GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN SPREAD TOWARDS
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY TUESDAY.

ONE PIECE OF GOOD NEWS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS THAT THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE LOW WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH IN
THE GULF TO KEEP MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL DRY WITH EVEN A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS FROM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
FROM THE MATANUSKA VALLEY INTO COOK INLET WILL ALSO HELP IN
KEEPING ANY RAIN CONFINED TO THE GULF COAST...AND WILL ALSO FORCE
ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT DOES FORM AROUND COOK INLET TO DISSIPATE BY
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AN UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST OVER THE KUSKOKWIM BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT NORTH ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST THROUGH MONDAY AND
WILL BRING SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TOWARD COASTAL AREAS. AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTH...A STRONG GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING
INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION ALONG WITH
RAIN THREATS TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST EXTENDING INTO INTERIOR
BRISTOL BAY. WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BEGINNING
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRIMARY LOW MOVES EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SPOTTY SHOWERS ALONG WITH WEAKENING NORTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY. A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH A
POSSIBLE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT NORTH OF
PORT HEIDEN TUESDAY AS THE PRIMARY LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. MEANWHILE...A SHARPLY-DEFINED COLD FRONT
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AND EXTENDS TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. STRONG WEST
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE AND RAIN WILL IMPACT THESE AREAS ALONG
THIS FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND
MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND. TUESDAY NIGHT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING WARM AIR
TO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND THEN THE MODELS BECOME MORE
CHAOTIC. SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BUT THERE IS DISCREPANCY ON WHERE THE LOW WILL
SETUP OR IF AND WHERE A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP RESULTING IN
LOWER CONFIDENCE. BECAUSE OF THE VARIATION IN DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS A COMBINATION OF ENSEMBLES WAS USED...PRIMARILY THE EC
ENSEMBLE AND THE NAEFS. THIS NEW SOLUTION BRINGS AN ELONGATED LOW
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY EVENING AND THEN TRACKS IT
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE GULF SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THE MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTH GULF
COAST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 138. GALES 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 150 155 160
165 351 352.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CC
LONG TERM...DK