Storm Warning 189, NWS Anchorage, AK

423 
FZAK52 PAFC 150000
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-151230-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 963 MB LOW 110 NM SOUTH OF GAMBELL WILL TRACK TO NEAR GAMBELL AT
981 MB TUE AFTERNOON...THEN EXITS INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA WED MORNING.
A 1000 MB LOW 180 NM SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVES INLAND FROM
BRISTOL BAY NEAR DILLINGHAM AT 994 MB TUE MORNING. A 996 MB LOW
WILL DEVELOP 280 NM NORTH OF ATKA TUE MORNING AND MOVES TO 50 NM
WEST OF SAINT PAUL AT 1003 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-151230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ155-151230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND
30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING
BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ160-151230-
BRISTOL BAY-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ165-151230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.

$$

PKZ170-151230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.

$$

PKZ171-151230-
UNALASKA BAY-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-151230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ173-151230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT.

$$

PKZ174-151230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ175-151230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 27 FT.

$$

PKZ176-151230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ177-151230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ178-151230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 34 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 32 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ179-151230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.

$$

PKZ180-151230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ181-151230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ185-151230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
300 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING
TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...W WIND 20
KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
432 PM AKST SUN DEC 13 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS RATHER STRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING THROUGH THE EASTERN ALASKA
MAINLAND...AND A VERY POWERFUL BENT-BACK OCCLUSION OVER THE
BERING SEA. BUOYS HAVE ANALYZED THIS STORM INTO THE HIGH 920 MB RANGE
EARLIER TODAY...MAKING THIS POWERFUL STORM ONE OF THE STRONGEST ON
RECORD IN THE BERING SEA...YET IS NOW STEADILY WEAKENING INTO THE
LOWER 940S THIS AFTERNOON AS AN OCCLUDED LOW. MOREOVER...ASCAT
SATELLITE PASSES FROM EARLIER TODAY HAVE REMOTELY MEASURED
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OVER OPEN WATERS IN EXCESS OF 80
KNOTS...VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR A NON-TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEAS HAVE BEEN
MEASURED BY BUOYS IN PARTS OF THE NORTH PACIFIC IN EXCESS OF 50
FEET OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD STORM
FORCE WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOF
ISLANDS...AND MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING EXCEPT THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS...WHERE THE LOW IS MOVING AWAY AND WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AN
OCCLUDED FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND BRINGING SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS. TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL...A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH
AND EAST...HAVING JUST MOVED ACROSS THE KODIAK ISLAND IN THE
AFTERNOON AND NOW MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND. THIS
WARM FRONT IS BEING FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS
KODIAK AND THE GULF OF ALASKA. THESE FEATURES ARE MOVING NEARLY IN
TANDEM WITH ONE ANOTHER CURRENTLY...WHICH MEANS THAT THE OCCLUDING
PROCESS IS PROGRESSING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE SUITE OF NUMERICAL WEATHER MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE POWERFUL CYCLONE OVER THE BERING...AND WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO LATE WEEK BEFORE THEY BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH MORE IMPORTANT DETAILS OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. THERE
IS DISAGREEMENT PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE WITH RESPECT
TO THE SPEED AND STRENGTH OF THESE WEAK DISTURBANCES. THERE IS
ALSO DISAGREEMENT WITH A COMPACT AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
FORMING AT THE BASE OF THE BERING CYCLONE...WHICH IS PROGGED BY
THE NAM AND ECMWF TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY TUESDAY. THIS DISCREPANCY HAS AN IMPACT
FOR THE SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF
GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHERN GULF TOWARD MID-WEEK. THE
BIGGEST IMPACT WOULD BE SNOW THREATS ALL ALONG THE COAST INTO
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL. WITH THE GFS BEING A LARGE
OUTLIER...AND WITH THE SENSITIVITY OF THE PATTERN TO SMALL MODEL
ERRORS...THIS FEATURE WILL BE HANDLED CONSERVATIVELY FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN GULF HAS MOVED PASS KODIAK
ISLAND AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS
EVENING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS THROUGH EASTERN TURNAGAIN
ARM AND THE PORTAGE AREA ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW RESULTING IN BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
THE 700 MB SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL ALLOW MORE
MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THROUGH COOK INLET INTO THE ANCHORAGE AREA.
BY MONDAY THE WINDS OVER THE AREA WILL WEAKEN AS AN UPPER LEVEL
WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF BRINGING MORE
MOISTURE BY MONDAY NIGHT IN THE LATE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT HAS PASSED OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND USHERING IN AN
UNSTABLE SHOWERY REGIME. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH MOST
OF THE SHORT TERM...SLOWLY DECREASING IN COVERAGE OVER TIME. WINDS
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT BRINGING IN A BIT WARMER AIR AT
THE SURFACE AND ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES. LATE
MONDAY NIGHT A DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
ONTO THE MAINLAND. THIS WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF SNOW...RAIN...AND
WIND TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER IT WILL QUICKLY
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE MAINLAND WILL HAVE DIMINISHED TO
ISOLATED OR ZERO ALTOGETHER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WINDS HAVE PEAKED AND ARE DIMINISHING IN MOST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LINGERING OVER THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS TONIGHT WHERE THEY SHOULD PEAK THIS EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THE OVERALL STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
LOSE STRENGTH THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WHILE LEAVING MUCH OF THE
BERING AND CHAIN IN A SHOWERY REGIME. ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...A QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE WILL CLIP THE UNALASKA AREA
AS WELL AS THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WHICH WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF
RAIN AND SNOW BEFORE RETURNING TO THE SHOWERY REGIME.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE BERING LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH
HEADING INTO THE MID TERM LEAVING A SHOWERY PATTERN BEHIND IT. TWO
NEW SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTERN SYSTEM WHICH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN BERING THURSDAY. THE EC IS A LITTLE BIT FASTER THAN THE
OTHERS BUT FROM AN IMPACTS STANDPOINT THEY ALL HAVE THE FRONT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAKING IT TO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THERE IS MORE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LOW APPROACHING KODIAK WEDNESDAY. THE NAM
AND GEM TAKE THE LOW INTO SHELIKOF STRAIT WHILE THE GFS STAYS ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND WITH THE EC EVEN FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH. THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OFFER A WIDE VARIATION ON
IMPACTS OF WINDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL
WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY LATE WEEK. AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WAS CHOSEN WHICH HELPED GET A MIDDLE GROUND
SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 125 (PORTAGE AND TURNAGAIN ARM).
 HIGH WIND WARNING 195.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 165 170 173 174 175 179.
 GALE WARNING 119 125 129 132 138 150 155 160 171 172 176 177 178
180 181 185.
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...ML
LONG TERM...DK