Gale Warning 894, NWS Anchorage, AK

108 
FZAK51 PAFC 142359
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151230-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1000 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF CORDOVA WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST AS IT DRIFTS EAST. A 994 MB LOW OVER BRISTOL
BAY WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR DILLINGHAM TUE MORNING. A 989 MB LOW
MOVES TO 350 NM SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK CITY EARLY WED MORNING AND
MOVES TO 170 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY AT 971 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-151230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT W 15 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 15
FT...9 FT NEAR THE COAST. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-151230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT W 15 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 13
FT...EXCEPT 8 FT NEAR THE COAST.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-151230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS BUILDING
TO 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-151230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-151230-
PORT VALDEZ-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-151230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-151230-
VALDEZ ARM-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-151230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-151230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-151230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-151230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ136-151230-
CHINIAK BAY-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-151230-
MARMOT BAY-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-151230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-151230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-151230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-151230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
259 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
549 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE REMNANTS OF THE ONCE POWERFUL BERING SEA CYCLONE CONTINUES TO
FILL AND WEAKEN...WITH THE NOW 948 HPA STORM FORCE LOW NOW
CENTERED JUST WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE EASTERN BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AS
WELL AS THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND SOUTHWEST COAST. WITH A LONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW FETCH...HIGHER SEAS WILL BRING IN SOME POTENTIAL
COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST FROM CAPE
NEWENHAM TO SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. THE ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE
OCCLUDED FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF INTO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND THIS MORNING...AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBS AND THE
MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR. SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO FILLING IN ACROSS
NORTHERN COOK INLET INTO ANCHORAGE AS EVIDENCED BY THE KENAI
RADAR. THE EASTWARD FRONTAL PROGRESSION IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MUCH WEAKENED 120 KT POLAR JET STREAM WHICH
IS MOVING INTO THE YUKON THIS MORNING. FINALLY...A LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORMING ALONG THE PERIPHERY/BASE OF THE POLAR
JET SOUTH OF ADAK. THIS FEATURE WILL BE AN IMPORTANT WEATHER MAKER
AS IT MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO BRISTOL BAY AND PARTS OF
COOK INLET TODAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THEY ARE IN OVERALL PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN AND DO NOT DIVERGE UNTIL A COMPACT LOW
RAPIDLY TRANSITS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC THROUGH BRISTOL BAY AND
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS RAPIDLY
MOVING LOW WILL HAVE IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGIONS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK HITTING BURST OF MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOW
ACROSS BRISTOL BAY. AS IT MOVES INLAND...THE LOW WILL WEAKEN...BUT
THE STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL IMPACT MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS COASTAL
SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW...AS WELL
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ACROSS COOK INLET. WITH SUCH AN
UNUSUAL LOW TRACK FROM BRISTOL BAY THROUGH THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY...THERE IS NOT MUCH "PATTERN RECOGNITION" TO SUPPORT SUCH
AN UNUSUAL SOLUTION. MOREOVER...THE MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS LOW...WITH THE NAM BEING A STRONGER AND SLOWER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE FAST ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...A
RATHER BROAD APPROACH FAVORING THE SLIGHTLY FASTER AND QUICKER
HITTING SOLUTIONS IS FAVORED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A FRONT THAT BROUGHT STRONG GALES ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA THIS MORNING IS NOW DISSIPATING ALONG THE COAST AND WINDS
ARE SUBSIDING. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT CONTINUE TO
LINGER FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL...BUT THEY
ARE WEAKENING AS WELL. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE PROGRESSES QUICKLY NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A QUICK BURST OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH THE QUICK
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN
LIGHT.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES AN UNUSUAL TRACK INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY...AND A WEAKER LOW DEVELOPS IN COOK INLET. WHILE
MORE MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...DOWNSLOPING IS ALSO
LIKELY TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL...MATANUSKA VALLEY...AND WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A LARGE BERING LOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY...WITH A CHANGE TO MOSTLY ALL SNOW AS COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO MOVE IN TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DIMINISH GREATLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. A FAST MOVING COMPACT LOW WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...SPREADING A
SWATH OF SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION. THIS
LOW WILL RAPIDLY TRACK INTO THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BY THE LATE
MORNING...THEN CLEARS OUT BY THE EVENING. ACCUMULATING SNOW
FALL IS LIKELY ACROSS BOTH REGIONS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A
RATHER NARROW BUT HEAVY BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION. THERE WILL BE A REPRIEVE IN WEATHER TUE NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND THE LOW MOVING OUT OF THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.

THE LARGE SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL APPROACHING THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
COAST TO CAPE NEWENHAM COAST WILL BRING HIGH SURF CONDITIONS AND
POSSIBLY SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH THE COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDES AND STORM SURGE
BRINGING COASTAL WATER LEVELS UP TO 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE MAXIMUM
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. THE VARIABLE ICE COVER ALONG THE COAST
WILL BRING BOTH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
IMPACTS AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE TO BE TOSSED UP ON
BEACHES AND INTO TO ADJACENT LOWLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WITH THE GIANT LOW IN THE BERING CONTINUING TO FILL...THE STRONG
WESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND THEN DROP OFF
MORE RAPIDLY TONIGHT. A SERIES OF SMALLER SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE BERING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT KEEPING SHOWERS
ACTIVE BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AND GENERALLY IN THE 20 TO
30 KT RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE BERING LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH
HEADING INTO THE MID TERM LEAVING A SHOWERY PATTERN BEHIND IT. TWO
NEW SYSTEMS WILL APPROACH THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE WESTERN SYSTEM WHICH MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN BERING THURSDAY. THE EC IS A LITTLE BIT FASTER THAN THE
OTHERS BUT FROM AN IMPACTS STANDPOINT THEY ALL HAVE THE FRONT FROM
THIS SYSTEM MAKING IT TO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THERE IS MORE
DISAGREEMENT WITH THE LOW APPROACHING KODIAK WEDNESDAY. THE NAM
AND GEM TAKE THE LOW INTO SHELIKOF STRAIT WHILE THE GFS STAYS ON
THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND WITH THE EC EVEN FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH. THESE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS OFFER A WIDE VARIATION ON
IMPACTS OF WINDS AND PRECIPITATION FOR THE GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL
WHICH LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BY LATE WEEK. AN
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WAS CHOSEN WHICH HELPED GET A MIDDLE GROUND
SOLUTION THAT BRINGS THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY 155 161.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 179.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
         GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 132 138 139 150 155 160 165
                      171 172 173 174 175 180 181 185.
&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
733 AM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0732 AM     SNOW             8 NW HOMER              59.72N 151.68W
12/14/2015  M8.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

LINGRAM