Storm Warning 139, NWS Anchorage, AK

173 
FZAK51 PAFC 111941 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

UPDATED 126 AND 127

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-120415-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 962 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF AKHIOK THIS AFTERNOON MOVES 
TO 120 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 960 MB TONIGHT THEN 
TO 50 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 970 MB THU NIGHT.


$$

PKZ119-120415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 55 KT...DIMINISHING TO 25 KT S OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-120415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
17 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-120415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE LATE  AFTERNOON.
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS  S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS  S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-120415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-120415-
PORT VALDEZ-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-120415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-120415-
VALDEZ ARM-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-120415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-120415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO NE 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 25 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-120415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO E 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS
EARLY EVENING. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-120415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT THIS MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...VARIABLE WIND 20
KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 29 FT EXCEPT 20 FT N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-120415-
CHINIAK BAY-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS MORNING...THEN 
BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN
THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-120415-
MARMOT BAY-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT THIS MORNING...THEN 
BECOMING NE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-120415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING NE
25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-120415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT TOWARD MORNING.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-120415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT TOWARD MORNING. 
SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-120415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
1041 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

214 
FZAK51 PAFC 120027
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-121345-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 964 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK MOVES TO 140 NM SOUTHEAST
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 961 MB THU MORNING...THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS
TO 979 MB AND MOVES TO 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT FRI AFTERNOON.
AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING
WILL DISSIPATE THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-121345-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 55 KT THEN BECOMING SE 25 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. NEAR THE COAST...E WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER
DELTA. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-121345-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 55 KT THEN BECOMING NE 40 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-121345-
RESURRECTION BAY-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT THROUGH THE EVENING.
SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-121345-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT THEN BECOMING NE 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT THEN SUBSIDING TO 7 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF NORTHERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-121345-
PORT VALDEZ-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-121345-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-121345-
VALDEZ ARM-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ129-121345-
PASSAGE CANAL-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
30 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5
FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ130-121345-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 60 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 25 FT SUBSIDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR KAMISHAK
BAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-121345-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS
EARLY EVENING. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-121345-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 20 KT
BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 27 FT EXCEPT 18 FT N OF
DANGEROUS CAPE. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-121345-
CHINIAK BAY-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-121345-
MARMOT BAY-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. RAIN.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-121345-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-121345-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT DIMINISHING TO 45 KT NEAR MORNING. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-121345-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT THEN DIMINISHING TO 35 KT
NEAR MORNING. SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-121345-
KACHEMAK BAY-
327 PM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
449 PM AKST TUE NOV 10 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...THE JET IS READILY APPARENT WITH ONE
LOOK AT THE IR SATELLITE. IT IS STREAMING ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
BETWEEN 140-150 KTS. IT IS PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO
THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. IT WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO AS THE LOW INTERACTS WITH THE LEFT EXIT JET REGION
THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. THE JET THEN TRACKS OFF TO THE EAST
AND DIVES SOUTHEAST IN THE GULF BEFORE TURNING SHARPLY BACK TO THE
NORTH AGAIN ALONG THE PANHANDLE. THIS IS KEEPING THE BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. THIS COLD
AIR IS CONTINUING TO TRIGGER SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WHERE THE WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE HELPED PRODUCE SOME LIGHTNING THIS
MORNING. THESE SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY DROPPED VISIBILITY AT TIMES
AND PUT DOWN SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AT SOME OF THE POPULATION
CENTERS. A FEW WEAK WAVES OF ENERGY CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE
DECAYING LOW NEAR THE SEWARD PENINSULA ARE SWINGING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE IN THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AS WELL.
THESE ARE SERVING TO CONSOLIDATE THE SHOWERS AT TIMES...BUT JUST
ABOUT ALL AREAS WILL BE VULNERABLE TO A BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW OR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX CLOSER TO THE COAST.

A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ASCAT(SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS) PASSES
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS CONFIRM THAT THE DEEPENING STORM IS ON
TRACK. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 60 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT ADAK AND
THINGS WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS SOME STRATOSPHERIC AIR
GETS PULLED DOWN INTO THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE. THIS IS MAKING FOR MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
MANY OF THE BIG PICTURE ITEMS. THIS INCLUDES WARNING LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. IT
ALSO INCLUDES THE TRACK OF THE LOW INTO THE GULF IN THAT IT LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL
REGIONS. SOME OF THE LESS CERTAIN ITEMS WHERE MODELS DISAGREE ARE
HOW COLD THE AIRMASS STAYS OVER ST PAUL ISLAND AND EXACTLY WHAT
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL FALL OVER THE GULF COAST LOCATIONS. FOR ST
PAUL...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT
PRECIPITATION TYPE. BUT AS OF THE 18Z RUNS...THEY HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD ALLOW MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION THERE TO FALL AS SNOW...ALBEIT A WET HEAVY SNOW.
FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA COAST...THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY.
WE LEANED ON THE FASTER...FARTHER SOUTH SOLUTIONS (EC-GEM
REGIONAL) WITH SUCH A STRONG ZONAL JET. THIS WOULD KEEP PLACES
LIKE THE EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AND POSSIBLY EVEN SEWARD ALL SNOW
AS COLD AIR IS PULLED NORTH TO SOUTH OFF THE LAND INTO THE SYSTEM.
BUT A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTH COULD DRAMATICALLY CHANGE
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TYPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND
WILL MOVE EAST INTO CANADA TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LARGELY BE RELEGATED TO THE MOUNTAINS...BUT CONTINUED FAVORABLE
FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG THREATS WILL DEVELOP FROM COOK
INLET NORTH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAVORED VALLEYS AND BASINS.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO A FAST MOVING STORM FORCE LOW WHICH
WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE TRACK IS TAKING A SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TRAJECTORY...WHICH
WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION GENERALLY ALONG THE COAST. VERY STRONG
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN A VERY WELL DEFINED
DOWNSLOPE SHADOW FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS...WITH RAIN AND SNOW FOR
COASTAL LOCATIONS...EXCEPT ALL RAIN FOR KODIAK ISLAND. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME OFFSHORE...WITH GAP WINDS INCREASING
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK
RIDGING WILL END PRECIPITATION FOR THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND DELTA
WED THROUGH THU. THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE THROUGH THU AS IT MOVES EAST TO
THE AKPEN AND BEYOND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AS THE ALEUTIAN LOW MOVES EAST IT WILL SPREAD DANGEROUS WINDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THROUGH TONIGHT...THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HIGH WIND
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. AS THE LOW MOVES PAST
THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS TONIGHT...THE LINE SEPARATING COLD FROM WARM
AIR MASSES WILL LIE BETWEEN SAINT PAUL AND SAINT GEORGE. WIND AND
SNOW OVER SAINT PAUL WILL CREATE AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY...AND A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW IS IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS IS HAPPENING...RAIN AND WIND
WILL AFFECT SAINT GEORGE.

OTHERWISE DIMINISHING WIND OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE CHAIN THROUGH THU...WHILE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE
SAME PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE STRONG LOW
THAT TRACKS FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THIS SYSTEM WILL BE POSITIONED JUST OFF THE
COAST NEAR YAKUTAT. THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA...PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THE NORTHERN COASTAL REGION WILL GET THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL BE RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE COASTLINE
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW INLAND ALONG THE CHUGACH AND
KENAI MOUNTAINS. THE INTERIOR WILL RECEIVE WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL FOR THE
MOST PART BE DOWN-SLOPED OUT RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION BY
THURSDAY WITH THE OVERALL WIND FLOW SHIFTING FROM ONSHORE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS RESULTING IN STRONG GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY GAP WINDS THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF FROM SHELIKOF
STRAIT...BARREN ISLANDS...COOK INLET AND THROUGH THE WHITTIER AND
PORTAGE REGION. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY AND THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION WILL SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGIT RANGE COINCIDING AS MORE COLDER
AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION.

THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN FROM
THE NORTH BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING
AS SNOW SHOWERS. THE HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY SUNDAY EVENING
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND THE LOWER WESTERN BERING SEA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS 181 185 187. BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY 195.
MARINE...HURRICANES 155 170 171 172 173
         STORMS 119 120 130 139 150 165 174 175 176 179
         GALES 125 127 131 132 136 137 138 140 141 160 177 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DS
LONG TERM...PD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1220 AM AKST WED NOV 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ADAK STATION            51.84N 176.64W
11/10/2015  M70.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

0720 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ATKA                    52.24N 174.21W
11/10/2015  M67.00 MPH                          AK   AWOS

&&

JPW