Storm Warning 131, NWS Anchorage, AK

270 
FZAK52 PAFC 091233
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-100200-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 962 MB LOW 50 NM WEST OF NOME MOVES TO 50 NM NORTH OF NOME AT
975 MB LATE MON NIGHT...THEN MOVES INTO INTERIOR ALASKA. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT IN THE NORTHERN BERING MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST
OF ALASKA MON EVENING...THEN MOVES INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA MON
NIGHT. A 995 MB LOW 225 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA MON NIGHT MOVES TO
125 NM NORTH OF DUTCH HARBOR AT 959 MB LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-100200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 35 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ155-100200-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.WED...W WIND 70 KT. SEAS 41 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-100200-
BRISTOL BAY-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ165-100200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ170-100200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM DUTCH
HARBOR E...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON SEAS 19
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 70 KT. SEAS 34 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 35 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ171-100200-
UNALASKA BAY-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-100200-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
DUTCH HARBOR E...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 70 KT. SEAS 36 FT.
.WED...W WIND 70 KT. SEAS 38 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-100200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17
FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 70 KT. SEAS 34 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ174-100200-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 60 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ175-100200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
ISOLATED MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 65 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ176-100200-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT
BUILDING TO 24 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ177-100200-
ADAK TO KISKA-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...STORM WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW 60 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PACIFIC
SIDE...SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-100200-
KISKA TO ATTU-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-100200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ180-100200-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS
AND RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...N WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ181-100200-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED MORNING THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ185-100200-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
333 AM AKST MON NOV 9 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND.
.TUE...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 30 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
511 AM AKST SUN NOV 8 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE ALOFT THIS MORNING IS A BIG BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BERING SEA. A LARGE PLUME OF
MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE WITH A SUB-TROPICAL
CONNECTION EXTENDING UP INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. A 140-KT JET
IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ACTING TO ADVECT MOISTURE ALOFT
AS WELL AS DEEPEN THE SYSTEM OVERALL OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA.
THE LARGE OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHES FROM SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WHERE IT THEN BECOMES
A NARROW WARM FRONT/COLD FRONT. A STEADY RAIN SHIELD IS PUSHING
ASHORE WITH THE FRONT FROM THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA THROUGH INTERIOR
BRISTOL BAY. WIDESPREAD GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS WRAP AROUND THE
SYSTEM. THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL IS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM AND THE INCOMING ONE WITH GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER...ONLY
SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE MODELS REMAIN BASICALLY THE SAME
AS YESTERDAY. THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS IN EVEN BETTER
AGREEMENT THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE LARGE BERING SEA PARENT LOW
PRESSURE. THE JET AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH TIMING/STRUCTURE ARE ALL
VERY SIMILAR AMONG MODELS...COMING INTO THE COOK INLET REGION LATE
TOMORROW EVENING. THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCES CONTINUE TO BE
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW...AND VARYING
DEGREES OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING. LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGE
FROM .1 INCHES TO .3 INCHES IN THE ANCHORAGE AREA. EVEN THOUGH
SOME DIFFERENCES ARE PRESENT...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON
BEGINNING PRECIPITATION IN ANCHORAGE BOWL IN THE MID-LATE EVENING
AND ENDING NOT LONG AFTER MIDNIGHT. WEST DOMAIN PREFERRED THE NAM
WHILE THE EAST PREFERRED THE GFS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST
DURING THE DAY...WITH THE AXIS MOVING INTO THE YUKON THIS
AFTERNOON. A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A VERY LARGE BERING SEA CYCLONE
IS ALREADY MOVING INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND WILL PUSH INTO THE
MAINLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT IS QUITE OCCLUDED
BUT ALSO FAIRLY STRONG AND WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION TO MOST AREAS AS IT MOVES THROUGH. THIS PRECIP WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RAIN ALONG
THE COASTAL AREAS AND NEAR KACHEMAK BAY. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN LATER TONIGHT AND THEN EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE ALSO A BIT TRICKY WITH THIS SYSTEM AS A
TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND BY MIDNIGHT AND THEN
PUSH INLAND NEAR VALDEZ LATE TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
WHICH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASINGLY
STRONG GUSTS TO THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA AS WELL AS HIGH SEAS AND
SURF. OBSERVATIONS (BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER AIR) THIS MORNING
CAPTURE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT BEGINNING
TO IMPACT SOUTHWEST ALASKA. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS RAIN. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY OCCLUDE OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP COLDER AIR TO ADVECT INLAND AND PRODUCE
A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW. BY TONIGHT...850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO -6 TO -8 DEGREES CELSIUS AND LIKELY ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE CHANGED OVER TO SNOW. THE STEADY
PRECIPITATION OBSERVED TODAY WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE ON
MONDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL THE DEVELOPMENT
OF PRECIPITATION UNDER THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE TOUGH TO PINPOINT DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF
PRECIPITATION BUT IT LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW SHOULD BE
FAIRLY COMMON THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG UPSLOPE
LOCATIONS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN FOR BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE
COASTAL LOCATIONS BUT BECAUSE OF THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE
SNOW...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS APPEARS VERY
UNLIKELY. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS WHERE VISIBILITIES DROP TO
1 MILE OR LESS BUT SHOULD GENERALLY PERSIST LESS THAN ONE HOUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WIDESPREAD GALE AND STORM FORCE WINDS WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. A
STOUT WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS MORNING AND BRING SOME LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OF
60 TO 65 MPH THROUGH CHANNELED TERRAIN. COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY
FILTER IN BEHIND THIS FRONT AS IT OCCLUDES OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA...WHICH IS EVIDENT BY LOOKING AT TEMPERATURE TRACES OVER
SHEMYA...ADAK AND ATKA. THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...BUT ALSO
CREATE A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
BERING SEA THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL STEEPEN
THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INTERACT WITH SOME SURFACE-BASED
INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD GENERALLY ACT TO ENHANCE LOCAL
RAINFALL/SNOWFALL RATES BUT WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY A FEW
LIGHTNING STRIKES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER THE BROAD
TROUGH THAT ENCOMPASSES THE BERING SEA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE OVERWHELMING FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE MID- TO LATE-WEEK
PERIOD IS THE GROWING LIKELIHOOD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
UNDERGO EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS (A.K.A. BOMBOGENESIS) AS IT TREKS
QUICKLY ALONG THE GREAT CIRCLE ROUTE FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA LATE WEEK. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING POWERFUL
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND WEST TO THE FAR SOUTH-
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE GFS
AND EC MODELS NOW AGREE ON THE GENERAL PLACEMENT...TRACK...AND
INTENSITY OF THIS LOW...WITH THE CANADIAN MODEL ONLY SLIGHTLY
FASTER.

AS A RESULT OF THIS BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...THE GRIDDED AND TEXT
FORECASTS WILL NOW SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WINDS TO IMPACT
THESE AREAS DURING THIS TIME...BUT WILL REMAIN FOR THIS MORNING'S FORECAST
PACKAGE A BIT BELOW THE FULL STRENGTH AS DEPICTED BY THE GFS
MODEL. HIGH WIND WATCHES AND POSSIBLY WARNINGS MAY BE NEED TO BE
ISSUED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS EAST THROUGH THE
ALASKA PENINSULA IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD AND/OR CONTINUE FOR LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THOSE WITH INTERESTS IN OR NEAR
ADAK...ATKA...DUTCH HARBOR/UNALASKA...FALSE PASS...COLD BAY...KING
COVE...AND SAND POINT SHOULD CHECK BACK FREQUENTLY FOR FURTHER
DETAILS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS AS WE APPROACH MID-WEEK.

OTHERWISE...ONSHORE FLOW AND SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE FLOW BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BERING LOW WEAKENS (YET STILL REMAINS QUITE
STRONG) IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST AIR
MASS OF THIS WINTER SEASON TO BUILD SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...COLDEST IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. STRONG OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGH TERRAIN GAPS MAY ALSO BECOME POSSIBLE ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WARNING...145
 		 WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...101 111
		 HIGH SURF ADVISORY...155.
MARINE...GALES...119 120 125 131 132 138 150 155 160 165 170
				 172-178 180.
		 STORMS...179 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...CC