Small Craft Advisory 939, NWS Anchorage, AK

837 
FZAK51 PAFC 270027
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-271315-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 997 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WILL MOVE TO 50 NM
WEST OF KODIAK CITY AT 982 MB LATE THU NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. A FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE THU
NIGHT...THEN MOVES INTO THE NORTH GULF COAST BY FRI AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF LATE FRI
NIGHT...THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHERN GULF BY SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-271315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. NEAR THE
COAST...SE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT...DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 60 KT IN THE MORNING NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ120-271315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ121-271315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 35 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS 
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS 
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-271315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 55 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-271315-
PORT VALDEZ-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT 
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-271315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-271315-
VALDEZ ARM-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR THE SOUND. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 45 KT NEAR THE SOUND IN THE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-271315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
GUSTS TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-271315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-271315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-271315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT 
S OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-271315-
CHINIAK BAY-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-271315-
MARMOT BAY-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING  TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-271315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-271315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-271315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-271315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
327 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
544 AM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER KODIAK ISLAND IS
BRINGING RAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE SOUTH MAINLAND TO THE EAST OF
THE ALASKA RANGE UNDER DEEP...MOIST...AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS REMAINS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AND COPPER RIVER BASIN WHICH CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
SNOWFALL...THOUGH RAIN IS STARTING TO MIX AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS
THE COLUMN WARMS. A GALE FORCE COASTAL JET AND TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS LOW IS STILL BRINGING HEAR HIGH WINDS TO
GAP WIND AREAS OF THE GULF COAST SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM. WINDS OVER
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL HAVE HOWEVER HAVE WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE
YESTERDAY AS THE LOW POSITION NEAR KODIAK ISLAND IS BRINGING
STRONGER DOWN INLET FLOW. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL IN THE AREA
HOWEVER ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS
OVERNIGHT. BEHIND THE LOW...SKIES ARE CLEARING UNDER WEAKENING WINDS
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES IN FROM THE EASTERN BERING. THIS IS A
VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ALREADY
PASSING THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING INTO NORTH PACIFIC TODAY...KEEPING ACTIVE WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTH MAINLAND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GREAT SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING WHEN THERE BEGIN TO BE DISCREPANCIES WITH THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE NEXT LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE
ARE HOWEVER SOME SMALL SCALE ISSUES IN THE EARLY TERM...MAINLY
WITH REGARDS TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THIS MORNING.
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAD BROUGHT THIS PRECIPITATION AS FAR WEST AS
DILLINGHAM...HOWEVER RECENT MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FURTHER TO
THE EAST...KEEPING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO EASTERN
BRISTOL BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF KODIAK HAS BEEN BRINGING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW
FALLING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TALKEETNA. AS THIS LOW PROGRESSES
TOWARDS MATANUSKA VALLEY TODAY...THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE GULF OF ALASKA
COAST...WITH HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. IN
CONTRAST...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ACROSS
THE MATANUSKA VALLEY...AND AS A RESULT THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELED.

IN ADDITION TO SUPPORTING HEAVY PRECIPITATION...THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL INCREASE WINDS THROUGH LOCAL GAPS...AND SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT WINDS FOR DOWNSLOPING ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND
WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA BY THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK WAVE WILL
AGAIN ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ALONG THE GULF COAST BEGINNING EARLY
FRIDAY AND CONTINUING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL ALSO
INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND BRING GAP WINDS BEGINNING EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER COOK INLET
WILL BRING WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN MIXED
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE ALEUTIAN RANGE
THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY. BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING A STORM FORCE
LOW WILL BE LOCATED NEAR DUTCH HARBOR WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT
MOVING INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE
WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE BRISTOL
BAY INTERIOR. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN
AND WILL MOVE SPREAD NORTHWARD. THE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WILL BE COOLER RESULTING IN A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND
FREEZING RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STORM FORCE LOW LOCATED NEAR ATKA THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK PARALLEL ALONG THE CHAIN BEFORE MOVING NEAR THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE WINDS IN THE BERING SEA WILL SHIFT
FROM NORTHEASTERLY TO PREDOMINANTLY NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BY
FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME
ALONG THE CHAIN AND THROUGHOUT THE BERING SEA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT BY FRI EVENING THE LOW
MOVING ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL REACH THE AKPEN...AND THEN MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN BERING WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOW...HOWEVER...CONTAINS ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND AS A RESULT IS INCREASING
MODEL UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS AND EC BRING THE LOW TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS ON SAT...AND THEN THEY HINT AT MOVING THE LOW TO THE
EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS WITH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. WPC UTILIZED
THEIR ENSEMBLE APPROACH...KEEPING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CHAIN AS IT
TRAVELS TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY TUE THROUGH
THU. THE FORECAST USES THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY CONFIDENT
IN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW.

THE EAST DOMAIN WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG, WARM,
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SAT WITH THE FIRST LOW...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE SAT INTO WED WITH THE SECOND. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
COAST CHANGING TO SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER
RIVER BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE WEST WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
LOW AND THEN POTENTIAL GALES EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SECOND LOW. RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SECOND LOW
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE BEGINNING SUN AND LASTING THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 119 177
         GALES 120 125 130 155 165 170 171 172 173 174
         175 176 178 185 351 352 411 412 413 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 181

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...DS