Gale Warning 727, NWS Anchorage, AK

327 
FZAK62 PAFC 261748 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
848 AM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-270415-
848 AM AKST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 MB LOW NEAR 51N 175W MOVES TO 53N 164W AT 974 MB FRI
MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 56N 157W AT 985 MB SAT MORNING. A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 49N 172E AT 980 MB SAT MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-270415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
848 AM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-270415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
848 AM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT THROUGH MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ413-270415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
848 AM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 25 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-270415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
848 AM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

854 
FZAK62 PAFC 270000
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-271500-
300 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 52N 171W MOVES TO 54N 159W AT 975 MB FRI
AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE GULF. A 977 MB LOW FORMS NEAR 60N 162W FRI AFTERNOON AND
MOVES TO 62N 168W AT 980 MB SAT AFTERNOON. A 983 MB LOW NEAR 50N
170E LATE FRI NIGHT MOVES TO 52N 175E AT 973 MB SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
300 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ412-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
300 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-271500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
300 PM AKST THU NOV 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

614 
FZAK62 PAFC 271240
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
340 AM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-280245-
340 AM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 970 MB LOW NEAR 53N 164W MOVES TO 56N 157W AT 984 MB SAT
MORNING...THEN WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AS IT MOVES
INTO THE GULF. A 977 MB LOW FORMS NEAR 60N 163W FRI AFTERNOON AND
MOVES TO 61N 174W AT 982 MB SUN MORNING. A 970 MB LOW NEAR 49N
164E EARLY SAT MOVES TO 51N 176W AT 976 MB SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-280245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
340 AM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...E WIND 15 TO 25 INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
N OF 56N...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ412-280245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
340 AM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-280245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
340 AM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO
13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-280245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
340 AM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

623 
FZAK62 PAFC 280014
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
314 PM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-281445-
314 PM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 983 MB LOW AT 47N 160E MOVES TO 54N 168W AS A 977 MB LOW 
BY SUN EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS SAT MORNING AND PRESSES EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN 
ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A 987 MB LOW FORMS FRI 
NIGHT NEAR 61N 165W AND MOVES TO 62N 178W AS A 984 MB LOW 
SUN EVENING.

$$

PKZ411-281445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
314 PM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-281445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
314 PM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-281445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
314 PM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-281445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
314 PM AKST FRI NOV 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

682 
FZAK62 PAFC 281247
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
347 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-290300-
347 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 980 MB COMPLEX LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BERING MOVES TO 240
NM SOUTHWEST OF GAMBELL AS IT WEAKENS TO 985 MB LATE TONIGHT. A
967 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 190 NM SOUTH OF
SAND POINT AS IT WEAKENS TO 976 MB LATE SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
347 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N
OF 56N...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
347 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
347 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 10 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-290300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
347 AM AKST SAT NOV 28 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO
10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
454 PM AKST WED NOV 25 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WELL INTO THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE HAS LEFT SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
IN A VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR CURRENTLY...WITH A SLUG OF TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES WELL OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
MOVING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AN UNUSUALLY
STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET PERSISTS WHICH HAS CONTINUED TO RAISE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION. AS A RESULT...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS BEEN PUSHED WELL
ABOVE 1000-FT ELEVATION AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN SUSITNA
VALLEY...WITH ONLY CHULITNA AND CANTWELL REPORTING SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...STRONG GAP AND CHINOOK WINDS THROUGH THE REGION
IMPACTING WESTERN SLOPES INCLUDING ANCHORAGE AND PALMER HAVE
LARGELY MELTED THE EXISTING SNOWPACK OVER THE AREA.

TO THE WEST...A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ALONG THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE...WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC
ALONG THE FRONT. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY BRINGING LIGHT
SNOW TO THE EASTERN PARTS OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE JET
STREAM...SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE LEFT EXIT JET REGION HAS TRAPPED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE AND RESULTED IN FOG FORMATION
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA REGION.

FURTHER WEST...THE NEXT POTENT SYSTEM WITH STORM-FORCE WINDS IS
IMPACTING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WITH SNOW AT ONSET
OF PRECIPITATION QUICKLY CHANGING TO RAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK EAST ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GREAT AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO DIVERGE SLIGHTLY WITH TIMING OF
DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH OVER THE
BERING SEA THAT WILL LARGELY AFFECT THE ALEUTIANS...AS WELL AS
DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTH FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TOWARD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

IN THE NEAR TERM...MODELS AGREE THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTH
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TONIGHT UP ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE AND WESTERN COOK INLET INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA BEFORE
DISSIPATING THURSDAY EVENING. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...THE WARM
LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY
AND ALLOW FOR WHAT WE THINK WILL BE ENOUGH COOLER AIR TO TURN THE
RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUSITNA VALLEY.

AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
GULF INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE STORM-FORCE LOW OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS MOVES EAST TO NEAR THE AKPEN FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH
AND DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WARM AND WET PATTERN CONTINUES FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING...EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR NORTH SUSITNA VALLEY WHICH CONTINUES TO RECEIVE SNOWFALL.
A DISTURBANCE AND SLUG OF MOISTURE IS MAKING ITS WAY OVERHEAD TONIGHT
BRINGING PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAIN TO MOST AREAS OF THE NORTH GULF COAST
AND COOK INLET REGION. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN THE FAR
NORTH SUSITNA VALLEY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE PRECIPITATION SHIFTS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN BEFORE SHIFTING
BACK WESTWARD TOMORROW EVENING. FOR THIS SECOND ROUND MOST OF THE
MOISTURE WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE NORTH GULF COAST. TURNAGAIN ARM
AND HIGHER ELEVATION WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AS THEY HAVE BEEN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE RELAXING IN THE AFTERNOON...
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BACK
UP THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A STALLED FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SNOW TONIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN AREAS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND BRISTOL BAY. A COLDER
AND DRIER AIR MASS STAYS IN PLACE ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TO
THE WESTERN CAPES THROUGH THANKSGIVING. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ALONG WITH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THIS FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON FRIDAY SPREADING PRECIPITATION NORTHWARD.
SNOW DEVELOPS INITIALLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER A
WARMER AIR MASS MOVES INLAND ALONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW JUST OFF THE
SURFACE. THIS WARMER AND MOIST AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY CHANGE PRECIPITATION
OVER TO RAIN WITH A CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE SLOWER TO MODIFY TOWARD FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE STORM FORCE LOW CENTERED NEAR SHEMYA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST ALONG
THE CORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH EAST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM. A MIX OF SNOW AND
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE WARMER AIR MASS
MAKING IT TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND EASTERN BERING ON THURSDAY.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA TRACKS TO THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF
ON FRIDAY HOWEVER WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER FLOW KEEP SHOWERY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT BY FRI EVENING THE LOW
MOVING ALONG THE ALEUTIANS WILL REACH THE AKPEN...AND THEN MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN BERING WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE ALONG THE COAST
SAT AFTERNOON. THE NEXT LOW...HOWEVER...CONTAINS ABUNDANT TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN PACIFIC AND AS A RESULT IS INCREASING
MODEL UNCERTAINTY. THE GFS AND EC BRING THE LOW TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS ON SAT...AND THEN THEY HINT AT MOVING THE LOW TO THE
EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS WITH DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. WPC UTILIZED
THEIR ENSEMBLE APPROACH...KEEPING THE LOW SOUTH OF THE CHAIN AS IT
TRAVELS TO NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND EASTERN BRISTOL BAY TUE THROUGH
THU. THE FORECAST USES THIS SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY CONFIDENT
IN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LOW.

THE EAST DOMAIN WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG, WARM,
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH SAT WITH THE FIRST LOW...AND THEN AGAIN
LATE SAT INTO WED WITH THE SECOND. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO THE
COAST CHANGING TO SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER
RIVER BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

THE WEST WILL HAVE SMALL CRAFT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL
LOW AND THEN POTENTIAL GALES EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SECOND LOW. RAIN ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE SECOND LOW
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE CHAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE BEGINNING SUN AND LASTING THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...SNOW ADVISORY 145.
MARINE...STORMS 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 413.
GALES 119 120 125 131 132 155 165 171 179 185 351 352 411 412 414.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...DS