Small Craft Advisory 813, NWS Anchorage, AK

689 
FZAK51 PAFC 181236 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

UPDATED ZONE 125

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-190315-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 992 MB LOW 200 NM EAST OF KODIAK WILL MOVE INTO PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND SUN AFTERNOON AT 995 MB. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 300 NM
SOUTH OF SITKINAK AT 976 MB TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-190315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. NEAR THE COAST...SE WIND 35 KT
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-190315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-190315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-190315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-190315-
PORT VALDEZ-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-190315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-190315-
VALDEZ ARM-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-190315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-190315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-190315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-190315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-190315-
CHINIAK BAY-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-190315-
MARMOT BAY-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-190315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-190315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-190315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-190315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
436 AM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

458 
FZAK51 PAFC 182338
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-191230-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 996 MB LOW OVER WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL TRACK INLAND
AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST GULF MON AFTERNOON...THEN TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN GULF
BY TUE MORNING. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW STRENGTHENS TO 970 MB 340 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SITKINAK MON NIGHT...THEN TRACKS 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SITKINAK AT 978 MB BY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-191230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT...EXCEPT E 15 KT ALONG THE
COAST IN THE EVENING. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-191230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO
17 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-191230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT...HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-191230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-191230-
PORT VALDEZ-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-191230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-191230-
VALDEZ ARM-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-191230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-191230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-191230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-191230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 15 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ136-191230-
CHINIAK BAY-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-191230-
MARMOT BAY-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-191230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT
BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-191230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ140-191230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-191230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
338 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
433 PM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE BERING AND WESTERN
ALASKA MAINLAND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE BERING SEA. TWO MAIN FEATURES
DOMINATE THE TROUGH...WITH ONE LOW CENTERED NEAR SHEMYA...AND A
SEPARATE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AT THE
SURFACE...A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. SOME MODERATE DOWNSLOPING IS
HAS LIMITED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND AS
BROUGHT WARMING TEMPERATURES. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.
MEANWHILE...A SEPARATE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR SHEMYA AND SUPPORTING
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON AND ITS
PROGRESSION TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY A BLEND OF MODELS WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WHILE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT FELL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL
HAS BEGAN TO LIFT NORTHWARD...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BRING
RAIN TO THE REGION CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST
GULF. AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE
MUCH MORE SHOWERY AND SPOTTY IN NATURE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS OVERHEAD. OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AND WESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO BECOME SHOWERS AS WELL THIS EVENING AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MOVES TO THE NORTH.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST
OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE NORTH GULF COAST SUNDAY MORNING...BRIEFLY
GIVING GALE FORCE WINDS TO AREAS EAST OF HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
WEAK DOWNSLOPING WILL INITIALLY LIMIT RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST
FROM THIS LOW AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW
MAKES LANDFALL IN THE AFTERNOON...STEADY RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN
TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WEAK
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THIS RIDGING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE GULF AND
KODIAK ISLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEAS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE
MOST INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND REGION. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO ROTATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THUS CONTINUING THE PATTERN OF
MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA IS KEEPING THAT
AREA IN THE SHOWERY REGIME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK
LOW BY BERING SEA STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND AS IT EXITS
TO THE SOUTHEAST IT WILL BE BRIEFLY REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ENDING THE SHOWERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
WESTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS TO
THE REGION.
&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST TOWARD THE GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN...BRINGING ABOUT A FAMILIAR CONUNDRUM. WILL
THERE BE A SECONDARY SURFACE CIRCULATION ALONG THE FRONT/TRIPLE
POINT OR WILL IT STAY AN OPEN TROUGH? ANY EXTRA DEVELOPMENT WILL
ACT TO REALLY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALONG AREAS
OF THE NORTH GULF COAST. SYNOPTICALLY...SIGNS POINT TO SOME
SEMBLANCE OF SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS. AN APPROACHING JET
STREAK...TRIPLE POINT...DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LONGWAVE ARE ALL FACTORS
PUSHING THE FORECAST TOWARD ANOTHER SURFACE LOW. THE JET AND
TRIPLE POINT QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAYBE
WEAKER/SHORTER LIVED...WHICH LED THIS SHIFT TO FAVOR THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION OVER THE REST OF GUIDANCE...WHEREAS THE NAM WAS TOO
ROBUST IN DEVELOPMENT AND THE GFS NOT ENOUGH. THIS SYSTEM STAYS
MOSTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE BERING SEA THE REST OF
THE WEEK CONTINUING THE ACTIVE PATTERN.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF MON/TUE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO THE
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE NORTH GULF COAST. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
STAY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INLAND. THE FRONT WILL WRAP AROUND AND AFFECT PARTS OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THERE WILL BE A BREAK MIDWEEK...POSSIBLY SOME
SUNSHINE FOR SOUTHCENTRAL BEFORE THE ACTIVE PATTERN FROM THE WEST
ENCROACHES BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SA
LONG TERM...ML