Gale Warning 654, NWS Anchorage, AK

839 
FZAK52 PAFC 182301
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-191230-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A STATIONARY 993 MB LOW 70 NM SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL WEAKEN
TO 997 MB BEFORE DISSIPATING MON MORNING. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN TO 970 MB 210 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT MON AFTERNOON...
THEN MOVE TO 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK AT 978 MB BY TUE
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
MON MORNING...THEN WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
BY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-191230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-191230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-191230-
BRISTOL BAY-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-191230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT W OF COLD BAY
AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT BECOMING E 15 KT FROM COLD BAY E. SEAS 4
FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ170-191230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-191230-
UNALASKA BAY-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-191230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ173-191230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-191230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ175-191230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT EARLY BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-191230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ177-191230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT EARLY BECOMING W 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ178-191230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. WINDS BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON
BERING SIDE. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ179-191230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-191230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-191230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-191230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
301 PM AKDT SUN OCT 18 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...N 25 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

366 
FZAK52 PAFC 191148
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-200030-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A STATIONARY 996 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND DISSIPATES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW STRENGTHENS TO 970 MB 260 NM
SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY MON AFTERNOON...THEN EXITS INTO THE GULF TUE.
A WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MON MORNING...THEN
WEAKEN OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-200030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-200030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 19 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT N 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS
E. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-200030-
BRISTOL BAY-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-200030-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. E OF COLD BAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING
TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 35 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 9 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ170-200030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-200030-
UNALASKA BAY-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-200030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ173-200030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-200030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ175-200030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-200030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ177-200030-
ADAK TO KISKA-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ178-200030-
KISKA TO ATTU-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO
8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT N OF SHEMYA.
SEAS 13 FT PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT BERING SIDE. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT N OF SHEMYA. SEAS 13
FT PACIFIC SIDE...9 FT BERING SIDE.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ179-200030-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-200030-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. N OF CAPE NEWENHAM...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. N OF CAPE NEWENHAM...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS
5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-200030-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-200030-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
348 AM AKDT MON OCT 19 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND E. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND E. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
433 PM AKDT SAT OCT 17 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSES THE BERING AND WESTERN
ALASKA MAINLAND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC...WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE BERING SEA. TWO MAIN FEATURES
DOMINATE THE TROUGH...WITH ONE LOW CENTERED NEAR SHEMYA...AND A
SEPARATE LOW CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AT THE
SURFACE...A DISSIPATING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. SOME MODERATE DOWNSLOPING IS
HAS LIMITED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND AS
BROUGHT WARMING TEMPERATURES. A SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.
MEANWHILE...A SEPARATE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR SHEMYA AND SUPPORTING
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW NEAR KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON AND ITS
PROGRESSION TOWARDS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY. MODELS DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CURRENTLY A BLEND OF MODELS WAS USED.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WHILE THE WIDESPREAD RAIN THAT FELL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL
HAS BEGAN TO LIFT NORTHWARD...THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO BRING
RAIN TO THE REGION CAN ALREADY BE SEEN ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST
GULF. AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM...RAIN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE
MUCH MORE SHOWERY AND SPOTTY IN NATURE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS OVERHEAD. OVER THE SUSITNA
VALLEY AND WESTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN...WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO BECOME SHOWERS AS WELL THIS EVENING AS THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MOVES TO THE NORTH.

THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST EAST
OF KODIAK ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT
PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE NORTH GULF COAST SUNDAY MORNING...BRIEFLY
GIVING GALE FORCE WINDS TO AREAS EAST OF HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
WEAK DOWNSLOPING WILL INITIALLY LIMIT RAINFALL TO THE GULF COAST
FROM THIS LOW AROUND SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY MORNING. AS THIS LOW
MAKES LANDFALL IN THE AFTERNOON...STEADY RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN BEGIN
TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS WEAK
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THIS RIDGING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING GALE FORCE LOW THAT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE GULF AND
KODIAK ISLAND ON MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEAS CONTINUES TO HAVE THE
MOST INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND REGION. THIS LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST THROUGH MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO ROTATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THUS CONTINUING THE PATTERN OF
MORE FREQUENT PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS DURING THE DAY AND A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA IS KEEPING THAT
AREA IN THE SHOWERY REGIME FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK
LOW BY BERING SEA STANDARDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS OVER THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND AS IT EXITS
TO THE SOUTHEAST IT WILL BE BRIEFLY REPLACED BY A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ENDING THE SHOWERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE
WESTERN BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH A FRONT TO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS EARLY MONDAY BRINGING RAIN AND STRONGER WINDS TO
THE REGION.
&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BEGINS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST TOWARD THE GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN...BRINGING ABOUT A FAMILIAR CONUNDRUM. WILL
THERE BE A SECONDARY SURFACE CIRCULATION ALONG THE FRONT/TRIPLE
POINT OR WILL IT STAY AN OPEN TROUGH? ANY EXTRA DEVELOPMENT WILL
ACT TO REALLY INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS ALONG AREAS
OF THE NORTH GULF COAST. SYNOPTICALLY...SIGNS POINT TO SOME
SEMBLANCE OF SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS. AN APPROACHING JET
STREAK...TRIPLE POINT...DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AND STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LONGWAVE ARE ALL FACTORS
PUSHING THE FORECAST TOWARD ANOTHER SURFACE LOW. THE JET AND
TRIPLE POINT QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SO IT MAYBE
WEAKER/SHORTER LIVED...WHICH LED THIS SHIFT TO FAVOR THE 12Z ECMWF
SOLUTION OVER THE REST OF GUIDANCE...WHEREAS THE NAM WAS TOO
ROBUST IN DEVELOPMENT AND THE GFS NOT ENOUGH. THIS SYSTEM STAYS
MOSTLY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST. THE EXTENDED PERIOD BECOMES A LITTLE MORE UNCLEAR AS
ANOTHER BROAD UPPER TROUGH SETS UP IN THE BERING SEA THE REST OF
THE WEEK CONTINUING THE ACTIVE PATTERN.

FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVE...A GALE FORCE FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE GULF MON/TUE. THIS FRONT WILL BRING STEADY RAIN TO THE
KODIAK ISLAND AND THE NORTH GULF COAST. MOST OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
STAY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS WITH A LESSER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS INLAND. THE FRONT WILL WRAP AROUND AND AFFECT PARTS OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA. THERE WILL BE A BREAK MIDWEEK...POSSIBLY SOME
SUNSHINE FOR SOUTHCENTRAL BEFORE THE ACTIVE PATTERN FROM THE WEST
ENCROACHES BY LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SA
LONG TERM...ML