Small Craft Advisory 81, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
515 AM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A CLOSED COLD UPPER LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN EXTENDS A
TROUGH AXIS SOUTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
CURRENT ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK. OVER THE BERING A REX BLOCK HAS
STALLED THE PATTERN WITH A CLOSED UPPER HIGH OVER THE CHUKCHI
PENINSULA AND A CLOSED UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE
CONFIGURATION IS STALLING OR SLOWING THE PATTERN. A COUPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR PROPAGATING THROUGH
THE FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
THE JET STREAM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND THE TROUGH LOOKS RATHER
DISORGANIZED.

AT THE SURFACE...THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON RESIDES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE STATE RESULTING IN OUTFLOW WINDS ACROSS THE NORTH GULF
COAST AND MOSTLY CLOUDLESS SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHCENTRAL...THOUGH SOME PATCHY LOW CLOUDS ARE MANAGING TO
LINGER AROUND KNIK ARM. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS BRINGING ROUNDS OF SNOW TO THE CHAIN ALONG WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...GUIDANCE HAS THE SAME GENERAL IDEA WITH THE
MATURE UPPER LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS OUTSIDE OF SOME SMALL
DISCREPANCIES ON LOW/TRIPLE POINT CENTERS. THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE NEXT STRONG WAVE MOVING TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA IS IN GREATER QUESTION BUT DIFFERENCES SEEM
NEGLIGIBLE IN TERMS OF IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
ARCTIC AIR HAS SET UP SHOP OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM A PACIFIC SYSTEM COULD
INSOLATE A LITTLE BIT BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY CHILLY. OUTFLOW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH GULF COAST AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN GULF TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA IS BEING
VERIFIED THIS MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS OF 40 BELOW TO 45 BELOW
ZERO BEING REPORTED. THE ADVISORY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK TO
EXPIRE AT NOON TODAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM...BRINGING WIND CHILLS
UP AS WELL. TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BEGIN TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT
OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT...AS A LOW IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC BRINGS SOME WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. THE BIGGEST
CHANGES WILL BE FELT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY
TONIGHT...THEN FARTHER INLAND OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY ON
TUESDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THIS TIME.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA FROM THE
SOUTH...SNOW WILL SPREAD OVER THE COASTAL AREAS OF BRISTOL BAY. WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING 3 TO 6 INCHES TO FALL IN THIS AREA...ALONG
WITH BLOWING SNOW AS GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE. INLAND AREAS OF BRISTOL
BAY SHOULD SEE MINIMAL SNOWFALL AS THE PRECIPITATION IS BLOCKED BY
THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT)...
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ALONG THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPE AS MAINLY RAIN ACROSS
THIS AREA. FARTHER WEST...WINDS WILL INCREASE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. THE PRIBILOFS WILL SEE SNOW CONTINUE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...THEN TRANSITION TO MORE SHOWERY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTH PACIFIC LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERY
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ALASKA PENINSULA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. COLDER AIR FILTERING DOWN OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL KEEP SOME GUSTY WINDS AND INSTABILITY SHOWERS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD IN OVER
MUCH OF THE BERING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND
BEGIN TO EXTEND OVER MAINLAND ALASKA DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
CONTAIN THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
GULF OF ALASKA...AS WELL AS KEEP DRY AND COLD NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE STARTED
TO KEY IN ON A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
BERING AND INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST FRIDAY...WHICH COULD
BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA.
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKING TOWARD THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY MORNING...BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION
TO THE AREA. HOWEVER FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER IMMENSELY FROM EACH OTHER
REGARDING THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE ALSO
STRUGGLING WITH THE PLACEMENT OF ANOTHER LOW APPROACHING THE
SOUTHERN GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE WITH THESE DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DRASTICALLY
DIMINISH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY 155.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 132 138 150 155 160 165 173 175 176 177
          179 180.
         HEAVY FRZ SPRAY 121 127 129 130 139 140 141 160 179 180
          185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MBS
LONG TERM...TP