Gale Warning 92, NWS Anchorage, AK

899 
FZAK51 PAFC 262355
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-271230-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A NORTHWARD MOVING FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTHWEST GULF TUE
MORNING AND IMPACT THE NORTH GULF COAST WED MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING DURING THE DAY WED.

$$

PKZ119-271230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT NE 15 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING E 30 KT. SEAS
8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-271230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-271230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-271230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-271230-
PORT VALDEZ-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-271230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-271230-
VALDEZ ARM-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-271230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER.
SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 
2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-271230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ131-271230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-271230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-271230-
CHINIAK BAY-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ137-271230-
MARMOT BAY-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ138-271230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY MAINLY
IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ139-271230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ140-271230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-271230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
255 PM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
338 PM AKST SUN JAN 25 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OUT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
ARCTIC AND EXTENDS SOUTHWARD OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SECONDARY TROUGH
THAT IS DIGGING ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHICH
IS KEEPING THE JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SERVING AS THE
FOCAL POINT FOR A SURFACE LOW THAT IS SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND
HEADING EASTWARD. THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SURFACE LOW IS
PUSHING NORTH OF THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE BERING SEA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPED IN EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD. THIS FEATURE ENHANCED
SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE VALDEZ AND CORDOVA AREAS TODAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS INITIALIZE VERY WELL AND ARE SHOWING GOOD CONSISTENCY FOR
THE FIRST TWO DAYS BEFORE A COMPLEX LOW MOVING TOWARD THE AREA
FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT IS SHOWING QUITE A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS WITH THE COMPLEX LOW FROM LAST WEEK THE MODELS
HAVE MORE OR LESS A COMMON TROUGH AXIS WHERE THEY PLACE THE LOW.
HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THE WAY THE LOW SPLITS ITS
DOUBLE CENTERS AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE HUNDREDS OF MILES APART.
THE GFS IS SHOWING ITS TYPICAL ERROR OF CONSOLIDATING ITS ENERGY
INTO A SINGLE LOW CENTER WHICH IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

BITTER COLD CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE COLDEST OF THE SEASON OVER
ANCHORAGE...AND SHOULD EASILY BREAK THE LONG STREAK OF
CONSECUTIVE DAYS ZERO OR ABOVE FOR TED STEVENS INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT. THE COLD WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MODEST IMPROVEMENTS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

WITH SUCH A DEEP POCKET OF COLD AIR OVER THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR...GUSTY OUTFLOW GAP WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT GENERALLY BELOW STRONG WIND CRITERIA WITH A
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO ENHANCE THESE WINDS.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO COLD ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS
ALONG LOWER COOK INLET...THE NORTHERN GULF...SHELIKOF STRAIT...PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND...AND MAINLY SOUTHERN PARTS OF KODIAK ISLAND...WITH
THE MORE SUSTAINED SHOWERS FOCUSED NEAR A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TODAY AND MONDAY)...
NOW THAT THE ARCTIC AIR MASS HAS SET UP OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER MUCH TODAY WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND OR CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. THIS WILL CHANGE
TONIGHT AS A WAVE DEVELOPS IN THE BERING...INCREASING THE OFFSHORE
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL
CREATE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA WHERE A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 45 BELOW ZERO.
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN SLOWLY RISE ON MONDAY AS WINDS AND CLOUDS
INCREASE. THIS INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE IN AS A RESULT AS
A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN FROM THE AKPEN. THIS WILL BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE WESTERN BRISTOL BAY FROM LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WAVE HAS TO POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE DILLINGHAM AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
DUE TO SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAR EAST THE SNOW WILL REACH AND
STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE...ITS TOO SOON TO SAY EXACTLY HOW
MUCH SNOW COULD FALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TODAY AND MONDAY)...
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...BECOMING
SNOW AS IT SPREADS INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN BY THIS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE BERING
AND TOWARDS THE PRIBILOFS THIS EVENING...HOWEVER THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND MUCH LIGHTER WITH THE SNOWFALL AS IT
APPROACHES THE ISLANDS BY MONDAY MORNING. IT IS FOR THIS
REASON...AND BECAUSE OF THE LACK OF CURRENT TRANSPORTABLE SNOW AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM WATERS IN THE BERING THAT THE BLIZZARD WATCH
THERE WAS CANCELLED THIS MORNING. THERE STILL WILL BE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AS STRONG WINDS KICK UP WHATEVER DOES FALL...HOWEVER
AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER THE BERING AND EXTEND OVER MAINLAND
ALASKA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA.
ADDITIONALLY...THE RIDGING WILL KEEP DRY AND COLD NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND UNTIL A LOW FROM NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA
MOVES INTO MAINLAND ALASKA.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY 155.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 160 165 170 175 176 177 178 179 180.
         HEAVY FRZ SPRAY 121 125 126 127 128 129 130 139 140 141
           160 165 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...DK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
258 AM AKST MON JAN 26 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 PM     EXTR WIND CHILL  BETHEL                  60.77N 161.77W
01/25/2015  M-40 F                              AK   ASOS

            BETHEL ASOS HAS BEEN REPORTING WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW
            -40F AS OF 553PM AKST SATURDAY JAN 25TH.

&&

TPEPE