Small Craft Advisory 565, NWS Anchorage, AK

824 
FZAK52 PAFC 161142
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170015-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 991 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR WILL MOVE TO 50 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE NORTHEAST
AND INLAND TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE BERING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-170015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-170015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-170015-
BRISTOL BAY-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ165-170015-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-170015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-170015-
UNALASKA BAY-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-170015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-170015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-170015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-170015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-170015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-170015-
ADAK TO KISKA-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-170015-
KISKA TO ATTU-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW WIND 20 KT LATE MORNING.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ179-170015-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-170015-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-170015-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-170015-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
342 AM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

346 
FZAK52 PAFC 162346
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171215-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 991 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTH DILLINGHAM TRACKS NORTHEAST BEFORE
MOVING INLAND NEAR BRISTOL BAY THU EVENING. A 989 MB LOW TRACKS
420 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA FRI AFTERNOON THEN TO 140 NM WEST OF
SHEMYA AT 992 MB SAT EVENING.

$$

PKZ150-171215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-171215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ160-171215-
BRISTOL BAY-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-171215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ170-171215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-171215-
UNALASKA BAY-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT SUBSIDING.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-171215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-171215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-171215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-171215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-171215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-171215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-171215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 IN THE EVENING BUILDING TO 15
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-171215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-171215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-171215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-171215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
346 PM AKDT THU JUL 16 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AKDT WED JUL 15 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM BRISTOL BAY ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND GULF TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA WILL SHEAR APART
TODAY AS THE NEXT INCOMING LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TRACKS TO THE EAST NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF. THE
EASTERN PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BREAK OFF AND MOVE INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA ALLOWING RIDGING TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH
WILL LIFT NORTH AND INLAND TO BE PULLED BACK TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY
WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH THE NEW MAIN LOW CENTER.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODEL DIFFERENCE REMAIN FAIRLY MINOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE GEM REGIONAL AND THEN ECMWF WERE PREFERRED ON THE EAST DOMAIN
AND THE GFS FOR THE WEST. CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES SUCH AS THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG
FRONT APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IS HIGH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
SWINGING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY WILL BRING ONE MORE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WET
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONALLY ISOLATED WET THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN INCOMING PACIFIC FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
THE GULF COAST THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND TO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY AS
THE LOW THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE GULF BREAKS APART AND A STRONGER
SYSTEM PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. THEREFORE A BIT OF A
BREAK IS IN STORE FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE. BY LATER TONIGHT THE
NEXT UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL OPEN UP STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND
USHER IN A FAIRLY WET PERIOD. FAIRLY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR SOME OF THE MARINE AREAS...AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM BY LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A WETTER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STORM
SYSTEM MOVES UP FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS
MORNING. GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OUT THE
EAST BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
TODAY...IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH PATCHY FOG ALONG THE
COAST IN THE MORNING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
DURING THE AFTERNOON A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL HELP MAXIMIZE
SURFACE HEATING AND TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST SHEARS APART WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCES TONIGHT MAKING INTO THE CENTRAL
BERING AND BRISTOL BAY THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT THEN SLOWS
ON THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW CROSSES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
INTO THE EASTERN BERING...HOWEVER RAIN CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND PEAK THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. RAIN DIMINISHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING SOUTH OF KISKA MAKES EASTWARD
PROGRESS TODAY. AN EXPANSIVE RAIN BAND DEVELOPS THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL NOT MAKE MUCH PROGRESS NORTH UNTIL TONIGHT. RAIN
SPREADS TO THE CENTRAL BERING OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS
INCREASING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE WESTERN BERING WILL SEE
NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WITH PATCHY FOG AND
CLOUDS. A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE BERING AS THE STORM SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH ON FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL
BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A STRONGER FRONT MOVING IN FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING THROUGH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
EARLY THURSDAY WILL QUICKLY SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN
BERING BY THE AFTERNOON...AS A STRONG JET STREAK SETS UP OVER
THE AKPEN. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARD A MUCH LESS
AGGRESSIVE PHASING OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY COMING OFF EASTERN
RUSSIA WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE WESTERN COAST OF
ALASKA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO BLANKET THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND...WITH SOME AREAS ALONG THE KENAI/CHUGACH MOUNTAINS
EXPERIENCING SOME DOWNSLOPING DUE TO STRONGER CROSS BARRIER FLOW
ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MODELS NOW SHOWING THE WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST ON THURSDAY SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE
EAST...BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE AREA. AS A
RESULT...DOWNSLOPING WILL QUICKLY FADE AND STEADIER RAINFALL WILL
BUILD OVER THE KENAI/CHUGACH MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY. IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT RUN TO RUN MODEL CONSISTENCY HAS NOT BEEN GOOD OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. THERE HAS BEEN IMPROVEMENT THOUGH WITH THE
MODEL RUNS TODAY...SO THERE IS NOW MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION.

MODELS THEN COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE PARENT TROUGH
SHIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN INTERIOR BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
EASTERN BERING AND MUCH OF THE MAINLAND BY TUESDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE FINER DETAILS SUCH AS STRENGTH AND POSITIONING STILL
NEED TO BE WORKED OUT...AS WELL AS HOW EACH MODEL IS HANDLING THE
WEAKER WAVES CIRCULATING AROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE DIFFERENTLY.
THUS THE FORECAST LEANED HEAVIER ON THE WPC ENSEMBLE APPROACH.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...TP