Small Craft Advisory 49, NWS Anchorage, AK

314 
FZAK51 PAFC 180017
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-181330-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN GULF SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH
MON. A 998 MB LOW 380 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN GULF MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-181330-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ120-181330-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ121-181330-
RESURRECTION BAY-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S
OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-181330-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-181330-
PORT VALDEZ-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-181330-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-181330-
VALDEZ ARM-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-181330-
PASSAGE CANAL-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-181330-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-181330-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ132-181330-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-181330-
CHINIAK BAY-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-181330-
MARMOT BAY-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-181330-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-181330-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-181330-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-181330-
KACHEMAK BAY-
317 PM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
413 PM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA.
THERE IS A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA WITH COLDER AIR
OVER THE BERING SEA SEEPING EASTWARD...AND THE STRONG
YUKON/BRITISH COLUMBIA RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE IS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM JUST INLAND FROM THE GULF COAST MOVING NORTH.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT
TERM (THROUGH 84 HOURS) WITH JUST THE USUAL MINOR DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH. AFTER 84 HOURS THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER A
LITTLE MORE...AND THIS AFFECTS THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FIELDS (SUCH
AS PRECIPITATION) QUITE A BIT...ALTHOUGH THE OVER-ALL PATTERN IS
SIMILAR. RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IS ALSO STRUGGLING A BIT...ALSO
MAINLY WITH DETAILS THAT AFFECT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE FOCUSED
IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER
THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHWARD TO THE COAST TONIGHT
AND THEN PUSH INLAND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOWFALL TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS REMAINING EAST OF THE
RICHARDSON HIGHWAY. SOUTHCENTRAL AK WILL THEN STAY IN A SHOWERY
REGIME THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHWARD OVER
THE MAINLAND...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE
AREA AND PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AS COLD ADVECTION TAKES HOLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

THERE IS STILL A VERY THIN LINE BETWEEN SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN
AROUND BETHEL AS BETHEL CONTINUES TO REPORT LIGHT RAIN AND FREEZING
RAIN AND NUNAPITCHUK (WHICH IS ONLY 23 MILES WEST OF BETHEL) HAS
REPORTED SNOW ALL DAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SFC-850 MB
THICKNESS DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING AS A COLDER AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO PUSH ON SHORE. HAVE EXTENDED THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR 155 UNTIL MIDNIGHT. BETHEL SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO SNOW
DURING THE MID-EVENING HOURS WHILE EAST OF BETHEL WILL REMAIN
FREEZING RAIN A BIT LONGER. ZONE 152 HAS BEEN A BIT OF SURPRISE
TODAY AS SLEETMUTE HAS SEEN PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND ANIAK HAS
BEEN ON THE DRY SIDE WITH DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 5-7 DEGREES. AS
THE COLUMN SATURATES A BIT MORE...SHOULD SEE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION NEAR ANIAK. THE ADVISORY FOR 152 HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 5 AM SATURDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. LUCKILY
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA HAS BEHAVED...WITH RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE AND CROSS BARRIER FLOW SHOULD ALSO
DIMINISH WHICH WILL ALLOW THE AREAS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE TO JOIN IN ON THE RAIN.

PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SNOW
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AN ELEVATED WARM NOSE WILL EXIST
BUT CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME AND NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
WITH THE LAST STRETCH OF WARMER WEATHER KEEPING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. WIND CHILL VALUES ACROSS THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL DROP TO -10 TO -20 AS THE COLDER AIR MASS
MOVES INLAND WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
TAPERED OFF MY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK RIDGE NOSES ITS WAY INTO
SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH FROM SIBERIA
AND BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN TO MUCH OF THE BERING SEA AND
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
AND ALASKA PENINSULA HAVE CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND THESE LOCATIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO SNOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLDER
AIR FILTERS IN. THE COLDER AIR WILL ENHANCE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...SO HAVE ADDED
SCATTERED WORDING IN FOR MOST ZONES. LAST BUT NOT LEAST...HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WILL BE SEEN NORTH OF 57N AS WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KT
COMBINES WITH THE COLDER AIR.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THERE IS INCREASING AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTH MAINLAND ALONG WITH WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON SUNDAY WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO
SOUTHCENTRAL (INCLUDING ANCHORAGE AND THE MATSU) ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG ACCUMULATING EVENT AS DYNAMICS AND
MOISTURE ARE WEAK...BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT MOST AREAS WILL SEE THE
FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 2015 BY MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER EAST WITH THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION FROM THIS SYSTEM MEANING THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BE
ANOTHER SNOW PRODUCER...BUT AS THIS IS A RECENT TREND AND ITS TOO
SOON TO SAY FOR CERTAIN.

THERE IS THEN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURN TO THE MAINLAND ON WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
FROM THE BERING STRAIT TOWARDS THE AKPEN. THIS PATTERN STILL
LOOKS TO BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION (MAINLY
IN THE FROM OF RAIN) THAT WILL CONTINUE LATE INTO NEXT WEEK. TO
THE WEST OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...PERSISTENT COLD AIR
ADVECTION LOOKS TO SETUP...PRODUCING SEASONABLY GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY 152 155.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MMC
LONG TERM...DEK