Small Craft Advisory 48, NWS Anchorage, AK

330 
FZAK51 PAFC 171215
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180115-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 984 MB LOW 80 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE SAT
AFTERNOON NEAR CAPE SUCKLING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-180115-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-180115-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-180115-
RESURRECTION BAY-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 1 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-180115-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-180115-
PORT VALDEZ-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-180115-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-180115-
VALDEZ ARM-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-180115-
PASSAGE CANAL-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-180115-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-180115-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-180115-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-180115-
CHINIAK BAY-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-180115-
MARMOT BAY-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-180115-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-180115-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-180115-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-180115-
KACHEMAK BAY-
315 AM AKST SAT JAN 17 2015

.TODAY...WINDS BECOMING SE 15 KT THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISHING TO
S 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 AM AKST FRI JAN 16 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVELS HAVE TWO CLOSED LOWS WITH THE FIRST OVER THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION AND THE SECOND LOW OVER THE EASTERN SIBERIA
AREA. THERE IS GALE FORCE LOW REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE NEAR
DILLINGHAM THIS MORNING WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PIN-WHEELING
AROUND THIS LOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING RAIN TO
THE BRISTOL BAY REGION WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S. THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY CONTINUE
WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THIS IS BRINGING IN
COOLER AIR THE AREA AND COINCIDES WITH THE SHORTWAVES PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL FORM A LOW AT THE SURFACE
LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF ALASKA THIS MORNING. THE SOUTH
TO NORTH MERIDIONAL 70 KNOT JET STREAK OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL
HELP TO TRACK THE LOW INTO THE GULF BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WILL
BRING MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF BEFORE SPREADING INLAND. THE COPPER RIVER BASIN HAS STRATUS
AND FOG WITH THE SPORT MODIS NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE
PICKING UP THE IFR FOG THIS MORNING. THE EASTERN KENAI EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD TO KODIAK WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE MORE PERIODS OF RAIN AS
SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE SURFACE LOW NEAR CHIGNIK TODAY. THE
BERING SEA WILL PREDOMINANTLY HAVE NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS WESTWARD WITH THE LOW IN THE BRISTOL BAY BECOMING
ELONGATED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH
THE BERING STRAIT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AS MORE COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW OVER
BRISTOL BAY REGION. THIS LOW WILL BEGIN TO BECOME ELONGATED BY
FRIDAY EVENING WITH A LOW FORMING TO THE NORTH OF BETHEL BEFORE
TRACKING NORTH INTO THE BERING STRAIT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA WILL HAVE THE REMNANTS OF A TROUGH HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING OVER THE GULF WITH THE GFS
BEING THE OUTLIER WITH KEEPING ONLY ONE LOW IN THE GULF...WHILE
THE OTHER MODELS ARE DEPICTING TWO LOWS FORMING BY FRIDAY EVENING
OVER THE GULF. THE PREFERRED MODELS OF CHOICE WERE THE ECMWF AND
THE NAM. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE EVEN THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOWS FORMING IN THE GULF.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAIN SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH THE
DAY WITH LEEWARD SIDES OF THE MOUNTAINS MISSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION. A LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHEAST GULF WILL MOVE
OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND BRING SNOW TO THAT AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THAT LOW MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL
FLOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL THEN TRANSITION TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS CHANGE IN PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW KEEPING
AREAS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN/ALASKA RANGE DOWNSLOPED
AND DRIER WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SATURDAY...ALLOWING SOME SHOWERS
TO FILL IN OVER AREAS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. GENERALLY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST.
FREEZING RAIN REMAINS A CONCERN FOR INLAND AREAS OF THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TODAY...WITH
MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT KEEPING RAIN THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE AND COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE KEEPING SURFACE
TEMPS NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THE COASTAL REGIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW AS A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS BEGINS TO
SLOWLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE DELTA TONIGHT. THIS MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND THROUGH SUNDAY...CHANGING THE
PRECIPITATION FROM RAIN TO SNOW...AND ELIMINATING THE THREAT OF
FREEZING RAIN. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS FOR WIND CHILLS OVER THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA OVER THE WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY BELOW
ZERO AT NIGHT AND IN THE LOWER TEENS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY A STOUT
NORTHERLY WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ORIGINATING OVER SIBERIA HAS PUSHED INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THIS AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND BRING MUCH COOLER
WEATHER TO THE BERING SEA ALONG WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS.
THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL CREATE DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES THAT
WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BERING SEA BY THIS EVENING. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THIS AIR MASS AS TEMPERATURES HAVE
COOLED TO 32 DEGREES WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME AN ISSUE NORTH OF
58N AS GALE FORCE WINDS MIX WITH COLDER AMBIENT TEMPERATURES.
WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY...HELPING TO
MODIFY TEMPERATURES AND DIMINISH THE GUSTY WINDS OVER THE BERING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. ONE CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT STATE IS THAT THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE A BIT BETTER THAN THE CURRENT
SITUATION OVER THE COOK INLET REGION. LATE THIS WEEKEND THE LAST
GASP OF THE CURRENT ALASKA PENINSULA TROUGH WILL BE LINGERING IN
THE AREA KEEPING SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE GULF FROM THE
BERING SEA WILL BRING THE NEXT THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
MAINLAND. WHILE THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT FROM
THE CURRENT VARIATION A BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ALEUTIANS
IS CAUSING SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONG GUIDANCE AS TO HOW THE FLOW
WILL LOOK OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. HOWEVER...SOME COMMON
FEATURES CAN BE SEEN. IT APPEARS AS IF A TROUGH WILL SET UP JUST
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ALONG WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING
INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF. THE TAKE AWAY IS A CONTINUATION OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 180 181 185
         GALE 173 174 179 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...MTL