Small Craft Advisory 415, NWS Anchorage, AK

433 
FZAK52 PAFC 152302
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-161215-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 998 MB LOW 60 NM WEST OF PORT HEIDEN WILL WEAKEN TO 1000 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 100 NM NORTHWEST OF DALL POINT SAT MORNING. A 985 MB LOW
120 NM WEST OF ADAK WILL MOVE OVER ADAK SAT MORNING WHILE WEAKENING
TO 990 MB AND THEN MOVE TO 110 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL AT 998 MB SUN
EVENING.

$$

PKZ150-161215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-161215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT...BECOMING S 30 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-161215-
BRISTOL BAY-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-161215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-161215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-161215-
UNALASKA BAY-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-161215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-161215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-161215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-161215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-161215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-161215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-161215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-161215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-161215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE MORNING. SEAS 7 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-161215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ185-161215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
302 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

803 
FZAK52 PAFC 161200
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170045-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 986 MB LOW 150 NM NORTH OF ADAK WILL TRACK TO 200 NM NORTH OF
ADAK AT 994 MB SAT NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA SUN NIGHT. A 995 MB LOW 600 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA SAT NIGHT
WILL STRENGTHEN TO 983 MB 300 NM SOUTH OF SHEMYA SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-170045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ155-170045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-170045-
BRISTOL BAY-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-170045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DECREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT EXCEPT SE 15 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS 6
FT EXCEPT 3 FT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ170-170045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-170045-
UNALASKA BAY-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-170045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-170045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 INCREASING TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-170045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-170045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT... VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW WIND 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-170045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-170045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT DECREASING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-170045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ179-170045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ180-170045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-170045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY
FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ185-170045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
400 AM AKDT SAT MAY 16 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT SE WIND 20 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW
ISLAND E. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
419 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN IS A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
ALASKA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BLOCK ALL ARRIVING SYSTEMS FROM THE WEST...SHUNTING
THEM NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ALASKA OR SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE BERING SEA. THERE IS A
LONG STREAM OF MOISTURE BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ALASKA...AND IT EXTENDS ACROSS KODIAK AND
THEN WELL SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC. THERE IS ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
THERE ARE OF COURSE SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES ON SURFACE LOW
LOCATIONS AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE MOISTURE/RAINFALL...BUT THESE
ARE FAIRLY EASY TO HANDLE IN THE FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
THEREFORE HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW EXISTS AT MOST LEVELS ABOVE SOUTHCENTRAL
WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM KODIAK ISLAND
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF. THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COOK INLET REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT ACTING TO SPREAD RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
WHILE THE COOK INLET REGION REMAINS MOSTLY DOWNSLOPED AND DRY.
THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND WHILE THE FRONT DISSIPATES INTO SATURDAY
RETURNING CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE NORTH GULF
COAST THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE CURRENT WET PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW
SOUTHWEST OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SLOWLY TRACKS EAST AND THEN
NORTH. GENERAL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REGION AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
LIFTS TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA...THEN SPREADS NORTH TO BRISTOL BAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. MOST OF THE RAIN OCCURS ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
ON SUNDAY...THE NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT INCREASING
INFLUENCE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS A LARGE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE BERING SEA. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD WITH TIME...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN LEADING THE
WAY WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE FORECAST HEAVILY FAVORS THAT. THE
GFS HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING AWAY FROM WIDESPREAD WET WEATHER OVER
THE LAST TWO DAYS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE
YEAR ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN
STORMIER AND WETTER AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK REMAINS WEST OF THE
BLOCKING HIGH.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JA