Gale Warning 425, NWS Anchorage, AK

863 
FZAK51 PAFC 152318
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161230-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL DISSIPATE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF SAT MORNING. ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER
THE WESTERN GULF SAT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN GULF SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-161230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT BECOMING SW 15 KT W OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-161230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING S 10 KT. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-161230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-161230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-161230-
PORT VALDEZ-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-161230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-161230-
VALDEZ ARM-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-161230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-161230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-161230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT.
.SAT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-161230-
CHINIAK BAY-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-161230-
MARMOT BAY-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-161230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-161230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-161230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-161230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
318 PM AKDT FRI MAY 15 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS
2 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
419 PM AKDT THU MAY 14 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN FEATURE DRIVING THE WEATHER PATTERN IS A STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN CANADA AND EXTENDING INTO EASTERN
ALASKA AND THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THIS RIDGE HAS BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BLOCK ALL ARRIVING SYSTEMS FROM THE WEST...SHUNTING
THEM NORTH THROUGH WESTERN ALASKA OR SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE BERING SEA. THERE IS A
LONG STREAM OF MOISTURE BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE RIDGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN ALASKA...AND IT EXTENDS ACROSS KODIAK AND
THEN WELL SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC. THERE IS ANOTHER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN BERING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM.
THERE ARE OF COURSE SOME SMALL DIFFERENCES ON SURFACE LOW
LOCATIONS AND HOW THEY HANDLE THE MOISTURE/RAINFALL...BUT THESE
ARE FAIRLY EASY TO HANDLE IN THE FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
THEREFORE HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW EXISTS AT MOST LEVELS ABOVE SOUTHCENTRAL
WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM KODIAK ISLAND
SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF. THE FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE COOK INLET REGION FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT ACTING TO SPREAD RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
WHILE THE COOK INLET REGION REMAINS MOSTLY DOWNSLOPED AND DRY.
THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND WHILE THE FRONT DISSIPATES INTO SATURDAY
RETURNING CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE NORTH GULF
COAST THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. GUSTY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE CURRENT WET PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE LOW
SOUTHWEST OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SLOWLY TRACKS EAST AND THEN
NORTH. GENERAL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST REGION AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW
LIFTS TOWARD THE KUSKOKWIM ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
RAIN CONTINUES TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ALONG THE LOW JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE ALASKA PENINSULA...THEN SPREADS NORTH TO BRISTOL BAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. MOST OF THE RAIN OCCURS ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING AS THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MOVES NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...SUNDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY)...
ON SUNDAY...THE NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT INCREASING
INFLUENCE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AS A LARGE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE BERING SEA. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SLOWLY BUILD WITH TIME...KEEPING PRECIPITATION AND MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND KODIAK ISLAND...WITH DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER
OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN LEADING THE
WAY WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE FORECAST HEAVILY FAVORS THAT. THE
GFS HAS BEEN SLOWLY TRENDING AWAY FROM WIDESPREAD WET WEATHER OVER
THE LAST TWO DAYS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE
YEAR ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS WILL REMAIN
STORMIER AND WETTER AS THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK REMAINS WEST OF THE
BLOCKING HIGH.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...RED FLAG WARNING 141.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ML
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...JA