Small Craft Advisory 110, NWS Anchorage, AK

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
528 AM AKST WED FEB 4 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THIS MORNING THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A SPRAWLING
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA AND
EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THIS IS PROMOTING
CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...WITH
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND PATCHY FOG
CONTINUING TO LINGER OVER THE COOK INLET REGION. THE ONLY SHOWER
ACTIVITY NOTED THIS MORNING IS LIMITED TO KODIAK ISLAND...THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AS A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE CHAIN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WHICH IS DOMINATED BY THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA. THERE IS ALSO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
MORNING ON AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF
FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHICH WILL
SERVE TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AND FURTHER RAMP UP OUTFLOW WINDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN STORY IN THE COMING DAYS WILL BE THE STEADY INCREASE IN
GAP WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FAVORED
AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AND ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION IN DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIND CHILL CONCERNS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. OTHERWISE...CLEAR
AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH PATCHY FOG LINGERING OVER THE COOK
INLET REGION INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
DRY...CLEAR...AND COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE MAINLAND.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND INTERIOR
BRISTOL BAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
WILL STAY DECOUPLED WITH LITTLE TO NO WIND UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN
SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN. WINDS WILL
INCREASING AND GET GUSTY ACROSS THE WHOLE MAINLAND ON THURSDAY
WHILE CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE CHAIN WILL SEND A WEAKENING
FRONT OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS TODAY
BRINGING LIGHT RAIN. TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...A DISTURBANCE ALOFT
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT THE
ONSET.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...FRI THROUGH TUE)..
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED AROUND
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. GUSTY
WINDS WORK INTO THE WEST COAST AND EASTERN BERING BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR
THE BERING STRAIT...SHIFTS WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DIVES ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE REINFORCING
THE TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND. A NEW LOW CENTER DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY NEAR KODIAK ISLAND AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THIS SET UP
KEEPS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND UNDER DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WITH SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE BERING AND WESTERN GULF.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY 131.
MARINE...GALES 127 128 155 172 173 174 175.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
139 140. FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...KH