Gale Warning 143, NWS Anchorage, AK

506 
FZAK52 PAFC 060000
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-061315-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA
THROUGH SAT. A 986 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF ADAK WILL MOVE SLOWLY
WEST AND DISSIPATE FRI.

$$

PKZ150-061315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE
COAST.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG THE COAST.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND.
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ155-061315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ160-061315-
BRISTOL BAY-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT.

$$

PKZ165-061315-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY FROM COLD BAY
E.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT
MOLLER.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM PORT MOLLER E.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ170-061315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ171-061315-
UNALASKA BAY-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ172-061315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-061315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ174-061315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ175-061315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ176-061315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ177-061315-
ADAK TO KISKA-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ178-061315-
KISKA TO ATTU-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-061315-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ180-061315-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT S OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT S OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ181-061315-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT.

$$

PKZ185-061315-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
300 PM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT FROM SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND N.
SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE
EDGE.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
517 AM AKST THU FEB 5 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH THE CORE OVER THE NORTHERN
BERING. IT CONTINUES ITS SLOW TRACK TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA
WHICH IS BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE MAINLAND. THIS IS ALSO
KEEPING DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND. TO
THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS A LOW IS BEING HELD UP FROM FURTHER
PROGRESSION TO THE NORTH BY THE RIDGING IN THE BERING AND IS
INSTEAD BEING FORCED WEST KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH ONLY SOME MINOR
DISCREPANCIES. ONE OF WHICH IS WITH A LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF ON
FRIDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THE INTENSITY BUT
THE GEM IS SHOWING IT FAIRLY DEEPER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE
OTHER ISSUE IS WITH A LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS THAT IS TRACKING
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HERE THE BIGGEST ISSUE IS
LOCATION WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST AND THE GEM TRAILING
BEHIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH THE HIGH OUT WEST OVER THE BERING NORTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHCENTRAL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. WINDS WILL ALSO INTENSIFY AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY DUE TO
SEVERAL DIFFERENT FEATURES OCCURRING IN SERIES. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AS A LOW BUILDS IN OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT. THEN ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON A TROUGH WILL PUSH DOWN FROM THE NORTH FOLLOWED BY COLD
AIR ADVECTION ALL AIDING IN STRONGER WINDS. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE DRY KEEPING THE SKIES CLEAR BUT WITH THE TEMPERATURES
DROPPING AND WINDS INCREASING WIND CHILLS WILL BE A CONCERN FOR
MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL WITH THE COLDEST CONDITIONS STRETCHING
FROM THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THROUGH VALDEZ.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND. NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO A DENSE COLD AIR
MASS ADVECTING FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 BELOW AND 35
BELOW WITH THE COLDEST VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE SLOWLY
WEST TODAY BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION TO THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING. THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR WITH THIS
SYSTEM DURING THE MORNING HOURS TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. PRECIPITATION WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
BERING/ALEUTIANS AS A WARMER COLUMN OF AIR WRAPS NORTH OF THE LOW
CENTER. THIS LOW WEAKENS TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING. GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A
COLDER AIR MASS ADVECTS WESTWARD FROM THE BERING STRAIT AND THE
MAINLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND VERY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS INTO THE WEEKEND AS DRY OFFSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...WITH LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GULF HELPING TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION IN NORTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY SUNDAY INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS THE GULF LOW WEAKENS AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT BEGINS TO WANE. MODELS ARE THEN HINTING AT A PATTERN
CHANGE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BERING HIGH
RETROGRADES INTO EASTERN RUSSIA AND A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM THE CANADIAN ARCTIC SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WOULD YIELD SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE
MAINLAND WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE GULF COAST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WIND CHILL ADVISORY 131 141
MARINE...GALE WARNING 121 126 127 128 130 131 132 139 140 141
					  170 173 175 177 179 180 185
 		 HEAVY FRZ SPRAY 121 126 127 128 129 139 140 141 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...CB