Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

054 
WWAK61 PAFC 081458
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
658 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

AKZ141-090600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0006.150608T2200Z-150609T0600Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
658 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...

* LOCATION...COPPER RIVER BASIN.

* 20 FT WINDS...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 
  MPH. STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COPPER RIVER.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...25 TO 35 PERCENT.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH HUMIDITIES
  NEAR CRITICAL VALUES. HUMIDITIES SHOULD RECOVER TO ABOVE
  CRITICAL VALUES BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS
  WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE ABOVE
  CRITICAL LEVELS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

971 
WWAK61 PAFC 090003
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
403 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

AKZ141-090600-
/O.CON.PAFC.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-150609T0600Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
403 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM AKDT THIS EVENING
FOR STRONG WIND ALONG THE COPPER RIVER...

* LOCATION...ALONG THE COPPER RIVER.

* 20 FT WINDS...SOUTH WIND 20 TO 35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...25 TO 35 PERCENT.

* TIMING...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE EVENING WITH RH
  VALUES DROPPING TO CRITICAL LEVELS BY LATE AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES
  SHOULD RECOVER TO ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES BY THE LATE EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. IT IS DIRECTED
TOWARD FIRE AGENCIES...AND THROUGH THEM TO THE PUBLIC.

&&

$$

834 
WWAK61 PAFC 090249
RFWAER

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
649 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015


AKZ141-090400-
/O.CAN.PAFC.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-150609T0600Z/
COPPER RIVER BASIN-
649 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR STRONG WIND FOR THE COPPER
RIVER...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE RED
FLAG WARNING.

WIND IN THE COPPER RIVER HAS DIMINISHED AND RH VALUES ARE RISING
WELL ABOVE 30 PERCENT. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER
OCCURRING.  

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
357 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS IN A RAPID
TRANSITION MODE FROM HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TO PROGRESSIVE AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND DEAMPLIFY. A WEAK LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC JET CAN BE SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRACKING TOWARD THE ALCAN AND
SPREADING MOISTURE TOWARD THE GULF COAST. MIDDLETON RADAR IS IS
PICKING THIS UP AS A BROAD REGION OF RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FEATURE OF SIGNIFICANCE CONTINUES TO BE
A CLOSED UPPER LOW...NOW RETROGRADING INTO FAR EASTERN SIBERIA
FROM ITS PREVIOUS LOCATION NEAR THE BERING STRAIT YESTERDAY. NEAR
THE ARCTIC CIRCLE...AN "ANCHORING" POLAR LOW WILL MERGE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA TODAY AND MONDAY.
FINALLY...A ZONAL MOVING SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EAST OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL PHASE WITH THE SIBERIAN
LOW...EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW/CLOSED LOW/WAVE MERGER
ALOFT. THIS TRIPLE MERGER IS...TO SAY THE LEAST... RELATIVELY
IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL BRING A RETURN TO CLOUDIER AND COOLER ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A SHORT REPRIEVE
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER IN THIS PATTERN WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND ACROSS
COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM KODIAK TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. INTERIOR
LOCATIONS WILL TEND TO REMAIN DRIER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL OWING TO A
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE DRYING PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. WITH A BUILDING COASTAL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME PORTIONS OF THE COPPER BASIN
MAY SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BY MONDAY EVEN IN
THE PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALL THE WAY THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE THEY
DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...THERE ARE
SOME SLIGHT BUT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE WAY THE NUMERICAL
MODELS SIMULATE THE PHASING OF THE NPAC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE
SIBERIAN LOW. THIS THEN RESULTS IN SLIGHT TRACK DIFFERENCES OF THE
SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND THE
ASSOCIATED INLAND PRECIPITATION PATTERN. FOR NOW...A GENERAL
APPROACH FAVORING THE ECMWF AND NAM WAS FAVORED AS THEY DEPICT A
SIMILAR LOW TRACK. THE NAM WIND FIELDS WERE FAVORED...ALTHOUGH THE
NAM PRECIP FIELDS MAY BE OVERLY DRY EVEN IN THE MIDST OF A
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PATTERN. WITH THAT SAID...MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WERE TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FROM
ANCHORAGE NORTH AND ACROSS THE COPPER BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...SUN AND
MON)...GENERALLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN MANY PLACES AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ALONG THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUES ACROSS THESE AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
MORE STABLE ON MON AS COOLER AIR COMING IN FROM THE GULF PUSHES
THE THERMAL TROUGH FURTHER NORTH. WIND PATTERNS WILL TREND MORE
TOWARD SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH SOME WEAK
GAP FLOWS WILL STILL HOLD OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

A WEATHER FRONT STARTS ROLLING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF ON MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. IT SHOULD BRING GALES TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
GULF. THE COASTAL RIDGE WILL BUILD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT
AND COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR PRODUCE BRISK
GAP FLOWS IN THE FAVORED AREAS (TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY/KNIK
ARM/COPPER RIVER) BEGINNING MON AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY FALL MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH
TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS TO THE LEE OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI
MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...THE COPPER RIVER BASIN OVERALL WILL SEE
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND COMBINED WITH STRONG GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAINLAND TODAY AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHES ONSHORE. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THAT AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KUSKOKWIM
MOUNTAINS AND ALASKA RANGE. SOME AREAS OF INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY
COULD SEE LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE/ALASKA
PENINSULA. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE ALEUTIANS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE CHAIN TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN FROM
WEST TO EAST. CLOSE BEHIND...A STRONGER FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BY MID WEEK. A RIDGE
OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
ALASKA/NORTHWEST CANADA THROUGH MID WEEK...AS A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PUSH THE RIDGE
FURTHER EASTWARD. WEAK RIDGING THEN TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
BERING/ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT IS HALTED BY A POLAR TROUGH STRETCHING DOWN OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH THEN REDEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN BERING AS IT COMBINES WITH AN UPPER LOW TRACKING IN FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC...PUSHING THE WEAK BERING RIDGE BACK OVER THE
GULF/SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THIS PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE
THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
WILL KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A
DECAYING LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT TRACK INTO THE THE WESTERN GULF.
DURING THIS TIME...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CHUGACH AND
ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL KEEP AREAS JUST WEST OF THE RANGES DOWNSLOPED
FROM MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION. GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND COPPER RIVER WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE GULF EARLY IN THE WEEK. WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM ARE
EXPECTED TO BEND DOWN INLET AND STAY OUT OF THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL...AS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
(DIURNAL HEATING) OVER ANCHORAGE OR THE LOWER SUSITNA VALLEY AT
THIS TIME. OUT WEST...A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL WEAKEN
AND TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY MID WEEK...KEEPING
SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS AND
BERING THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
BERING/ALEUTIANS MID WEEK...TAPERING OFF MOST OF THE SHOWERY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RAINY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PICK BACK UP OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC.

THE MODELS WERE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. THE GFS HAS STARTED TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS...WHICH HELPED RAISE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...KEEPING OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JRA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...TP