Gale Warning 898, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Dec 15, 2015, 2:57 PM AKST (23:57 UTC)

Expired

Dec 16, 2015, 3:15 AM AKST

In force

12 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

252 
FZAK51 PAFC 152357
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161215-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1010 MB LOW WILL DISSIPATE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
EVENING. A 989 MB LOW 340 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 160 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK AS IT INTENSIFIES TO 968 MB WED EVENING...THEN
MOVE TO 320 NM EAST OF SITKINAK AT 970 MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-161215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-161215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-161215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-161215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-161215-
PORT VALDEZ-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-161215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-161215-
VALDEZ ARM-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-161215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-161215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-161215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-161215-
CHINIAK BAY-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-161215-
MARMOT BAY-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-161215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-161215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT...EXCEPT NE 35 KT TOWARDS KALGIN
ISLAND. SEAS 28 FT...EXCEPT 18 FT TOWARDS KALGIN ISLAND.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-161215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT SE 20 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM
IN THE EVENING. WINDS BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-161215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 15, 5:44 AM AKST, 9 hours 13 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
544 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO BE
DOMINATED BY GENERAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING STRETCHING FROM THE
WESTERN BERING TO THE PANHANDLE OF ALASKA. THERE IS A SPLIT POLAR
AND SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM THIS MORNING...WHICH IS VERY WELL
DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...WHICH IS KEEPING THE
MAIN THERMAL DRIVEN BAROCLINIC ZONE SEPARATED FROM THE RICH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SOURCES TO THE SOUTH. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
TROUGH IS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THE FIRST IS A WEAKENING AND ELONGATED SHEARED
TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE NORTH GULF. THE
SECOND IS A FAST MOVING COMPACT BUT SHARP PV ANOMALY TRACKING INTO
EASTERN BRISTOL BAY...AND THE THIRD IS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH NEAR 45N SOUTH OF
ADAK. THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE COMPACT PV ANOMALY AND
ASSOCIATED JET STREAK RAPIDLY TRACKING INTO EASTERN BRISTOL BAY.
ALTHOUGH OF LOW AMPLITUDE AND DISCONNECTED FROM DEEP SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...FOCUSED AND STEADY STATE ASCENT ABOVE THE LEVEL OF NON-
DIVERGENCE (ABOVE 500 HPA) IS FORCING STRONG LOW LEVEL
CYCLOGENESIS. A RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASS AT 0600Z CAUGHT STORM
FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF THE FAR WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA IN MARINE
ZONE 150. MOREOVER...BUOY 46075 IN THAT SAME ZONE OBSERVED STORM
FORCE WIND GUSTS. LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AS
WELL...ALONG THE REGION OF ENHANCED MID LEVEL ASCENT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL RAPIDLY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS MORNING...THEN INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A DEEP LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THEY ARE IN LESSER AGREEMENT WITH A FAST MOVING LOW
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THREE LOWS AS THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW SPLITS
OFF AND SECONDARY LOWS DEVELOP ACROSS COOK INLET AND PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND TODAY. AS A RESULT...THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION AND PRESSURE GRADIENT PATTERNS. THIS IS MOST NOTABLE
AROUND COOK INLET AND ANCHORAGE...WHERE THE EFFECT OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS SWEEPING THROUGH ANCHORAGE WILL IMPACT PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND AMOUNT. WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY SPIKING INTO THE LOW 30S
ACROSS ANCHORAGE THIS MORNING...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MIXED OF RAIN AND SNOW...AND POSSIBLY GRAUPEL (SEE SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL). OVERALL...THE CANADIAN RDPS WAS
FAVORED FOR PRESSURE...WINDS...AND PRECIPITATION...WITH THE GFS
AND ECMWF FAVORED BEYOND 36 HOURS TO CAPTURE THE LARGE LOW IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA...AND ANOTHER STRONG LOW MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

FORECAST CHALLENGES REMAIN WITH THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN EVEN
FOR THE SHORT TERM. ALREADY THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER ACROSS ANCHORAGE THAN FORECASTED BY ANY
CURRENT MODEL...MOST LIKELY DUE TO LIGHT SUBSIDENCE WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND A VERY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND. IN ADDITION...LIGHT
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE KENAI PENINSULA
THIS MORNING EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROGRESSES NORTHWARD DURING THE DAY TODAY...TWO
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER COOK INLET
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. AS A RESULT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE WEAKER...AND SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL BE LESS STRONG
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL JET WILL BE
IN A FAVORABLE POSITION TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION ACROSS ANCHORAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AS TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY NEAR
FREEZING THIS MORNING...LIMITED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
IN ADDITION...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE QUITE CONVECTIVE IN
NATURE...RESULTING IN A WIDE SPREAD OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

IN CONTRAST...MORE STEADY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA...AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN PLACE...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR VALDEZ. BY WEDNESDAY A MORE
ORGANIZED LOW IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH KODIAK ISLAND AND BRING
HEAVY RAINS TO KODIAK AND STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE GULF...BUT
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A RATHER SMALL BUT POTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MAKE LANDFALL
ALONG THE NORTHERN BRISTOL BAY COAST EARLY THIS MORNING THEN
CONTINUE INLAND TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW IS BRINGING ENOUGH WARM
AIR OUT AHEAD OF IT THAT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA
FROM ROUGHLY KING SALMON SOUTH WILL START THE MORNING OFF AS RAIN
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT THEN QUICKLY MIX OVER TO ALL SNOW AS
THE COOLER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS PUSHES IN. FURTHER NORTH AN AREA
OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL FOLLOW THE LOW INLAND. WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COMPACT LOW EXPECTING
TO SEE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE RATHER RAPIDLY AROUND
THE BRISTOL BAY AREA IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING THE LOW PASSAGE.

SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF RAPIDLY THIS EVENING WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND SOME PARTIAL CLEARING DROPPING TEMPERATURES
SUBSTANTIALLY TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA WILL BE
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY MODELS ARE KEEPING THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO ONLY SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND UP TO THE BRISTOL BAY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BERING REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AS THE LARGE REMNANT SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO FILL AND
WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS RUSSIA. THE NEXT RATHER STRONG
INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THEN SWING INTO THE
WESTERN BERING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS MOVING A STORM-FORCE LOW
INTO THE WESTERN BERING THURSDAY. THE EC IS A LITTLE BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHERS BUT FROM AN IMPACTS STANDPOINT THEY ALL HAVE THE
FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAKING IT TO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY BEFORE
FALLING APART AT THE SURFACE...WITH A WEAKENING FRONT ALOFT
MOVING INLAND. THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE
WIDESPREAD GALE-FORCE OR STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THIS LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA.

THE LOW APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND FROM THE SOUTH IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN RETREAT SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHICH TRACK OCCURS...STRONG GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE MARINE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FOR INNER
COASTAL WATERS FROM COOK INLET THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS TO
SHELIKOF STRAIT...AND EAST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR THE WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH AN ENSEMBLE MODEL APPROACH
FOR POPS AND QPF.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
         GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 132 136 137 138 139  150 155
                      160 165 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JR
LONG TERM...CC

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every gale warning in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.