Gale Warning 897, NWS Anchorage, AK

851 
FZAK51 PAFC 151629 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

UPDATED 132 136 137 138

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160415-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 992 MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL WEAKEN TO 995 MB AS IT MOVES
INLAND 30 NM WEST OF DILLINGHAM LATER THIS MORNING. A 992 MB LOW
325 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 966 MB WED
NIGHT 175 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK.

$$

PKZ119-160415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-160415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING 35 KT BEFORE NOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-160415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S WIND 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-160415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE AND EAST. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-160415-
PORT VALDEZ-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-160415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-160415-
VALDEZ ARM-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-160415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-160415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-160415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT THEN DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-160415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ136-160415-
CHINIAK BAY-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-160415-
MARMOT BAY-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-160415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-160415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-160415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-160415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
729 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

245 
FZAK51 PAFC 151927 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

UPDATED 139

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-160430-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 992 MB LOW IN BRISTOL BAY WILL WEAKEN TO 995 MB AS IT MOVES
INLAND 30 NM WEST OF DILLINGHAM LATER THIS MORNING. A 992 MB LOW
325 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK TONIGHT WILL STRENGTHEN TO 966 MB WED
NIGHT 175 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK.

$$

PKZ119-160430-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.  
.WED...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.  
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-160430-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING 35 KT BEFORE NOON. SEAS 13 FT.  
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT.  
.WED...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-160430-
RESURRECTION BAY-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S WIND 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND
SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.  
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-160430-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 35 KT HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE AND EAST. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-160430-
PORT VALDEZ-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-160430-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-160430-
VALDEZ ARM-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY.  
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-160430-
PASSAGE CANAL-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.  
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-160430-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.   
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.  
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-160430-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT THEN DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT.  
.WED...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ132-160430-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.  
.WED...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ136-160430-
CHINIAK BAY-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT
BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-160430-
MARMOT BAY-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-160430-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
.WED...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.  
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-160430-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

UPDATED

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-160430-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING
SPRAY.  
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.  
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.  
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-160430-
KACHEMAK BAY-
1027 AM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW.  
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.  
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

252 
FZAK51 PAFC 152357
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-161215-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1010 MB LOW WILL DISSIPATE NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS
EVENING. A 989 MB LOW 340 NM SOUTH OF SITKINAK WILL MOVE TO 160 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK AS IT INTENSIFIES TO 968 MB WED EVENING...THEN
MOVE TO 320 NM EAST OF SITKINAK AT 970 MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-161215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ120-161215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10
FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT BUILDING TO 24 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-161215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-161215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-161215-
PORT VALDEZ-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-161215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-161215-
VALDEZ ARM-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ129-161215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ130-161215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ131-161215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 24 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-161215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-161215-
CHINIAK BAY-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-161215-
MARMOT BAY-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-161215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-161215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 50 KT...EXCEPT NE 35 KT TOWARDS KALGIN
ISLAND. SEAS 28 FT...EXCEPT 18 FT TOWARDS KALGIN ISLAND.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-161215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT...EXCEPT SE 20 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM
IN THE EVENING. WINDS BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-161215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
257 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
358 PM AKST MON DEC 14 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE BERING
SEA OVER THE WEEKEND HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH WITH A 961 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THIS SYSTEM
HAS BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WHICH WILL PREVENT IT FROM WEAKENING TOO
RAPIDLY. BROAD WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW COVERS THE BERING AND IS
BRINGING WINDS TO THE WEST COAST OVER A LONG FETCH OF
WATER...CAUSING SOME ISSUES WITH HIGH WATER LEVELS ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS BERING SEA LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION AND A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. COMBINED WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE
UPPER LEVELS...WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WHICH
IS REFLECTED IN THE SHOWERS VISIBLE ON RADAR AND SATELLITE.

SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...SATELLITE INDICATES A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
JET THAT IS CURRENTLY TRANSITING THE UPPER PACIFIC. THIS SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY A 110KT SOUTHWESTERLY JET STREAK WHICH SHOULD HELP
PUSH IT RAPIDLY ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE MAINLAND OF
ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE UPCOMING SYNOPTIC SITUATION HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT FOR THE
MODELS TO HANDLE AND AS SUCH THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENCES.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS CURRENTLY JUST SOUTH OF ADAK AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UP OVER THE BRISTOL BAY WHERE IT
WILL DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW. MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM ONCE IT HITS THE MAINLAND. THE
12Z NAM SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER BY SLOWING DOWN THE SYSTEM
SIGNIFICANTLY AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED LOW OVER THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION. THE GFS/GEM/EC SOLUTIONS VARY SLIGHTLY BUT ALL SEEM TO
TAKE A FASTER TRACK. THE NAM HAS ALSO NOT INITIALIZED WELL WITH
THE SATELLITE IMAGE...LOCATING THE CURRENT LOW FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST THAN IS SHOWN ON SATELLITE. GIVEN THESE FACTS THE NAM
SOLUTION WAS NOT CHOSEN...WITH THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE SHORT
TERM LEANING TOWARDS THE GFS.

THE SECOND PORTION OF THE SHORT-TERM CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE
FOR THE MODELS. AFTER THE INITIAL WAVE A SECOND LOW MOVES UP
TOWARD THE GULF OF ALASKA SOUTH OF COLD BAY AND THE MODELS DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE LOCATION OF THIS ONE AS WELL. ON THE 12Z RUNS
THE GFS WAS THE OUTLIER AS MUCH FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THE NAM/EC
SOLUTION...HOWEVER THE NEW 18Z RUN OF THE NAM SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT
SHIFT TO ALIGN WITH THE GFS. THIS RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY DOES
NOT LEND ITSELF TO HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE...AT THE TIME OF THIS
DISCUSSION THE EC/12Z NAM SOLUTION WAS CHOSEN FOR THIS STORM WHICH
KEEPS NORTHERLY WINDS AND SNOW IN KODIAK BEFORE THE LOW SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST.

BOTTOM LINE...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS LEAD TO A
LOWER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL
PRODUCING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS GOING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE WILL BE BRIEF DRIER PERIOD WITH A WEAK
RIDGE MOVING THROUGH LATER TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY MIDDAY AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION
BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE FAST MOVING BUT
SHOULD RESULT IN MORE FAVORABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IN THE ATMOSPHERE. BY
WEDNESDAY A RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH THE BRISTOL BAY AREA EXTENDING
ALONG NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY TURNAGAIN ARM WINDS. KODIAK ISLAND WILL
SEE INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH MOISTURE SPREADING FROM THE SOUTH
TO NORTH WITH A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL BRING GALE FORCE EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
THE WESTERN GULF. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN TO KODIAK
ISLAND ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

ONSHORE FLOW WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. AS A FAST-MOVING DISTURBANCE
MOVES IN FROM THE BERING SEA TONIGHT STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE INTO THE BRISTOL BAY AREA AND REACH THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TOMORROW. THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SHOULD BE APPROXIMATELY NEAR
KING SALMON FOR MOST OF THIS EVENT...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
LIKELY NORTH OF DILLINGHAM AND ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY BY THE
TIME THINGS WIND DOWN TUESDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL RATES COULD BE
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE...WITH THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR TOTAL SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS BEING THE VERY FAST FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. ON A
RELATED NOTE...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WHILE IT IS SNOWING IN MOST OF
THESE AREAS...BUT OVERALL NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE...SO WE DO NOT
ANTICIPATE ANY BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA WILL REMAIN JUST OUT OF REACH OF THIS SMALLER
STORM SYSTEM...AND INSTEAD REMAIN IN THE UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AROUND THE LARGER SYSTEM FROM THE WEEKEND THAT IS MOVING
TOWARD THE BERING STRAIT.

BY WEDNESDAY...A STRONGER STORM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND PARK SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. WHETHER SNOWFALL IS ABLE
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE INTO BRISTOL BAY WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR NORTHWEST THE LOW CENTER MOVES...WHICH IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE REGION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN UNDER THE BROAD CYCLONIC
INFLUENCE OF THE REMNANTS OF THE STRONG BERING SEA STORM FROM LAST
WEEKEND. COUPLED WITH ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION OFF THE RUSSIAN
LANDMASS...INSTABILITY SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
NORM. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE WEAK STORM CURRENTLY
APPROACHING DUTCH HARBOR THAT WILL RACE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND TONIGHT. THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER QUICK INCREASE IN WINDS AND A FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED BURST OF SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A MOSTLY ZONAL JET
CARRIES THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY FORWARD.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS MOVING A STORM-FORCE LOW
INTO THE WESTERN BERING THURSDAY. THE EC IS A LITTLE BIT FASTER
THAN THE OTHERS BUT FROM AN IMPACTS STANDPOINT THEY ALL HAVE THE
FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAKING IT TO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY BEFORE
FALLING APART AT THE SURFACE...WITH A WEAKENING FRONT ALOFT
MOVING INLAND. THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL BE
WIDESPREAD GALE-FORCE OR STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THIS LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BERING SEA.

THE LOW APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND FROM THE SOUTH IN THE SHORT TERM
WILL REACH PEAK STRENGTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN RETREAT SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHICH TRACK OCCURS...STRONG GALE FORCE
WINDS WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE MARINE WATERS...ESPECIALLY FOR INNER
COASTAL WATERS FROM COOK INLET THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS TO
SHELIKOF STRAIT...AND EAST ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE EC SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED FOR THE WINDS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WITH AN ENSEMBLE MODEL APPROACH
FOR POPS AND QPF.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY 155 161.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 132 138 150 155 160 172 179
180 181 185
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...LF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...AD
LONG TERM...CC