Gale Warning 833, NWS Anchorage, AK

424 
FZAK61 PAFC 071227
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
327 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-080200-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA AND RIDGING OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A
950 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 54N 145W TUE AFTERNOON 
THEN MOVE TO 57N 145W AT 956 MB TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-080200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT BECOMING NE 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-080200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
327 AM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

$$

888 
FZAK61 PAFC 080015
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-081430-
315 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 956 MB LOW NEAR 50N 150W MOVES TO 56N 147W AT 953 MB TUE
AFTERNOON...THEN TO 57N 151W AT 965 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-081430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
315 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT BECOMING NE 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ352-081430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
315 PM AKST MON DEC 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT S 25 TO 35 KT E OF 148W.
SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

469 
FZAK61 PAFC 081238
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
338 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-090215-
338 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 956 MB LOW NEAR 54N 147W MOVES TO 57N 148W AT 958 MB WED
MORNING...THEN TO 57N 150W AT 979 MB THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-090215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
338 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE TO SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 20 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...NE TO SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-090215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
338 AM AKST TUE DEC 8 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E OF 147W...VARIABLE WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING 
SW 35 TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 TO 27 FT. W OF 147W...NE
WIND 15 TO 30 KT SHIFTING TO W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT. 
RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED...E OF 147W...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
W OF 147W...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
511 AM AKST SUN DEC 6 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ARE TWO VERTICALLY STACKED LOWS...ONE SOUTH
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND ON SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SHORT-WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BERING AND
ALASKA PENINSULA...WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY A "BACK DOOR" WARM FRONT
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER EAST THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA WITH WEAK OFFSHORE FLOW AT THE LOWER
LEVELS. THERE IS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST CENTRAL GULF MOVING TOWARDS
THE WEST. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE OVER THE GULF TO BRING SOME
SHOWERS TO KODIAK ISLAND IN NORTHEAST FLOW.

OF NOTE FROM A LARGER WEATHER/CLIMATE PERSPECTIVE IS THE VERY
EXTENDED EAST ASIAN JET (EAJ). THIS IS RUNNING ALMOST DUE EAST
BETWEEN 35 AND 40 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE FROM KOREA TO ABOUT 140
DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE WINDS IN THIS JET EXCEED 190 KTS IN
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC. THIS EXTENDED EAJ IS A COMMON
OCCURRENCE DURING EL NINO YEARS AND IS A SIGN THAT THE CURRENT EL
NINO IS WELL COUPLED WITH THE MID LATITUDE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN
HOW THEY HANDLE THE INTERACTION OF THE VARIOUS LOWS OVER AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN/CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA FROM
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS DOES NOT HAVE A
LARGE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER FORECAST...BUT DOES INTRODUCE SOME
UNCERTAINTY. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING SEA AND A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MUCH OF THE FOG AND STRATUS IN THE ANCHORAGE AND MATANUSKA VALLEY
AREA DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT. THERE WERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS PASSING
OVERHEAD WHICH MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THIS. THE MORE LIKELY
CULPRIT IS THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL FLOW BEGINNING AT A FEW
HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AS SEEN IN THE 12Z ANCHORAGE
SOUNDING. EXPECT SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THIS FLOW TODAY SO WE MAY
NOT BE COMPLETELY DONE WITH THE FOG/STRATUS. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD BUT PATCHES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FLOAT ALONG
KNIK ARM. THE OTHER PROBLEM AREA IS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE
STRATUS IS WIDESPREAD. THIS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES STEADY OVERNIGHT.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD THERE WILL NOT BE ANYTHING TO
MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES WITH
THIS IN MIND...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME COOLING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS. IF IT DOES CLEAR OUT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY. ASIDE
FROM THESE TWO ISSUES EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
WITH SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.

MEANWHILE...A FRONT WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
GULF WILL CROSS KODIAK ISLAND TODAY BRINGING STEADY RAIN. COLDER
AIR OVER INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL COMBINED WITH PASSAGE OF THE FRONT
TO THE SOUTH HAS KICKED UP GAP WINDS ALONG THE PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND AND THE GULF COAST...BUT EXPECT SOME SLACKENING OF PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND WINDS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS.
KODIAK WILL CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODS OF RAIN ON THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF A LOW COMPLEX SITTING OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTH
CENTRAL PACIFIC.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED
OVER THE AREA WITH CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COLD TEMPERATURES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SUNDAY. BY LATE
SUNDAY A WARM FRONT WILL TRACK INTO THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE. THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL RAIN ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND A
BRIEF TRANSITION ZONE OF WINTRY MIX...EXCEPT ALL SNOW FROM
DILLINGHAM NORTH AND WEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SOUTH
OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THAT WILL TRACK OVER DUTCH HARBOR BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING NEAR NIKOLSKI BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING PREDOMINANTLY GALE FORCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
FROM THE NORTHERN TO LOWER WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH THE WESTERN
TO CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE IN
THE WESTERN BERING SEA BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY MONDAY. THESE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
COLDER TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME. WHILE
DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS SYSTEM THERE WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THAT WILL SPILL OVER INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SEA. ALL THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS RESULTING IN GALE FORCE SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING SEA AND THE BRISTOL BAY REGION HEADING
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...MON THROUGH FRI)...
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING THAT HAS BEEN A
SEMI-PERMANENT FEATURE LATELY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO THE GULF
AND DEEPEN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A GALE (OR POTENTIALLY
STORM FORCE) LOW INTO THE GULF BY LATE MONDAY WHICH WILL PERSIST
IN THE GULF AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE COURSE OF NEXT WEEK UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER
CONFINED TO THE GULF AND EASTERN BERING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. OVER SOUTHCENTRAL THIS WILL BRING GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW
AND CLEAR SKIES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL...WHILE OVER THE
BERING...BROAD NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BRING COLD AIR
ADVECTION SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA. BY LATE NEXT WEEK THERE IS
VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE GULF LOW WILL DISSIPATE
SOMEWHERE AROUND THE NORTH GULF COAST...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL TO THE SOUTH MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 180 181 185.
         STORM WARNING 178 411.
         GALE WARNING 130 138 160 165 175 176 177 179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...PD
LONG TERM...DEK